We present an approach to identifying concurrent patterns of behavior in in-sample temporal factor training data that precede Events of Interest (EoIs). We also present how to use discovered patterns to forecast EoIs in out-of-sample test data. The forecasting methodology is based on matching entities' observed behaviors to patterns discovered in retrospective data. This pattern concept is a generalization of previous pattern definitions. The new pattern concept, based around patterns observed in trends of factor data is based on a finite-state model where observed, sustained trends in a factor map to pattern states. Discovered patterns can be used as a diagnostic tool to better understand the dynamic conditions leading up to specific Event of Interest occurrences and hint at underlying causal structures leading to onsets and terminations of socio-political violence. We present a computationally efficient data-mining method to discover trend patterns. We give an example of using our pattern forecasting methodology to correctly forecast the advent and cessation of ethnic-religious violence in nation states with a low false-alarm rate.

Secure networks rely upon players to maintain security and reliability. However not every player can be assumed to have total loyalty and one must use methods to uncover traitors in such networks. We use the original concept of the Byzantine Generals Problem by Lamport, and the more formal Byzantine Agreement describe by Linial, to nd traitors in secure networks. By applying general fault-tolerance methods to develop a more formal design of secure networks we are able to uncover traitors amongst a group of players. We also propose methods to integrate this system with insecure channels. This new resiliency can be applied to broadcast and peer-to-peer secure communication systems where agents may be traitors or become unreliable due to faults.

In Dempster-Shafer belief theory, general beliefs are expressed as belief mass distribution functions over frames of discernment. In Subjective Logic beliefs are expressed as belief mass distribution functions over binary frames of discernment. Belief representations in Subjective Logic, which are called opinions, also contain a base rate parameter which express the a priori belief in the absence of evidence. Philosophically, beliefs are quantitative representations of evidence as perceived by humans or by other intelligent agents. The basic operators of classical probability calculus, such as addition and multiplication, can be applied to opinions, thereby making belief calculus practical. Through the equivalence between opinions and Beta probability density functions, this also provides a calculus for Beta probability density functions. This article explains the basic elements of belief calculus.

Lexical constraints on the input of speech and on-line handwriting systems improve the performance of such systems. A significant gain in speed can be achieved by integrating in a digraph structure the different Hidden Markov Models (HMM) corresponding to the words of the relevant lexicon. This integration avoids redundant computations by sharing intermediate results between HMM's corresponding to different words of the lexicon. In this paper, we introduce a token passing method to perform simultaneously the computation of the a posteriori probabilities of all the words of the lexicon. The coding scheme that we introduce for the tokens is optimal in the information theory sense. The tokens use the minimum possible number of bits. Overall, we optimize simultaneously the execution speed and the memory requirement of the recognition systems.

This article considers the task of automatically inducing role-semantic annotations in the FrameNet paradigm for new languages. We propose a general framework that is based on annotation projection, phrased as a graph optimization problem. It is relatively inexpensive and has the potential to reduce the human effort involved in creating role-semantic resources. Within this framework, we present projection models that exploit lexical and syntactic information. We provide an experimental evaluation on an English-German parallel corpus which demonstrates the feasibility of inducing high-precision German semantic role annotation both for manually and automatically annotated English data.

A novel analytical methodology has proven fruitful in developing a functional identification of consciousness with operable mental control structure in human higher brain function. Two operational homologies (one associated with language, the other tool use) derived from mammalian instrumental behavioral competence are identified, each exadaptively accessible: one a specialization of attentive search to (conventional, linguistic) internalized symbolic lexicon; the second being a combination – a co-parallel activation – of symbolically specialized attention with the original external ‘spotlight’ in order to support (deliberative, choice-making) navigational tasking. The mechanism by which consciousness becomes articulated to support the specialized control requirements of three cognitive performance levels is described, in particular for the case of the social bipedal hominid. A single articulated template model is posed to intervene between the incoherent neuronal and the coherently conscious mental level of higher brain operation. This cognitive system theory logic lends itself to an explanation of the exadaptive acquisition of a cognitively objectifiable self-model from within subjective experience, and a plausible heuristic for the systematic building of self-aware mental repertoire is discovered.

In the The use of argumentation for decision support is not new, remainder of the paper, we motivate our approach by using a with a long history of studies such as (Amgoud and Prade group decision making setting in clinical oncology, present a 2009; Amgoud and Vesic 2009; Amgoud, Dimopoulos, and formal framework, and procedural basis for mixed initiative Moraitis 2008; Fox et al. 2007; Amgoud and Prade 2006; argumentation and finally describe a clinical group decision Atkinson, Bench-Capon, and Modgil 2006; Rehg, McBurney, support system that implements this framework.

Multi-representational architectures exploit diversity to yield the breadth of capabilities required for intelligent behavior in the world, but in so doing can sacrifice too much of the complementary benefits of architectural uniformity. The proposal here is to couple the benefits of diversity and uniformity through establishment of a uniform graph-based implementation level for diverse architectures.

Comirit is a framework for commonsense reasoning that combines simulation, logical deduction and passive machine learning. While a passive, observation-driven approach to learning is safe and highly conservative, it is limited to inte-raction only with those objects that it has previously ob-served. In this paper we describe a preliminary exploration of methods for extending Comirit to allow safe action selection in uncertain situations, and to allow reward-maximizing selection of behaviors.

We present an interactive learning method that enables a user to iteratively refine a regression model. The user examines the output of the model, visualized as the vertical axis of a 2D scatterplot, and provides corrections by repositioning individual data points to the correct output level. Each repositioned data point acts as a control point for altering the learned model, using the geometry underlying the data. We capture the underlying structure of the data as a manifold, on which we compute a set of basis functions as the foundation for learning. Our results show that manifold-based interactive learning achieves dramatic improvement over alternative approaches.