A novel method for estimating Bayesian network (BN) parameters from data is presented which provides improved performance on test data. Previous research has shown the value of representing conditional probability distributions (CPDs) via neural networks(Neal 1992), noisy-OR gates (Neal 1992, Diez 1993)and decision trees (Friedman and Goldszmidt 1996).The Bernoulli mixture network (BMN) explicitly represents the CPDs of discrete BN nodes as mixtures of local distributions,each having a different set of parents.This increases the space of possible structures which can be considered,enabling the CPDs to have finer-grained dependencies.The resulting estimation procedure induces a modelthat is better able to emulate the underlying interactions occurring in the data than conventional conditional Bernoulli network models.The results for artificially generated data indicate that overfitting is best reduced by restricting the complexity of candidate mixture substructures local to each node. Furthermore, mixtures of very simple substructures can perform almost as well as more complex ones.The BMN is also applied to data collected from an online adventure game with an application to keyhole plan recognition. The results show that the BMN-based model brings a dramatic improvement in performance over a conventional BN model.

A key problem in statistics and machine learning is the determination of network structure from data. We consider the case where the structure of the graph to be reconstructed is known to be scale-free. We show that in such cases it is natural to formulate structured sparsity inducing priors using submodular functions, and we use their Lovász extension to obtain a convex relaxation. For tractable classes such as Gaussian graphical models, this leads to a convex optimization problem that can be efficiently solved. We show that our method results in an improvement in the accuracy of reconstructed networks for synthetic data. We also show how our prior encourages scale-free reconstructions on a bioinfomatics dataset.

Partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a powerful model for real-world sequential decision-making problems. In recent years, point- based value iteration methods have proven to be extremely effective techniques for finding (approximately) optimal dynamic programming solutions to POMDPs when an initial set of belief states is known. However, no point-based work has provided exact point-based backups for both continuous state and observation spaces, which we tackle in this paper. Our key insight is that while there may be an infinite number of possible observations, there are only a finite number of observation partitionings that are relevant for optimal decision-making when a finite, fixed set of reachable belief states is known. To this end, we make two important contributions: (1) we show how previous exact symbolic dynamic pro- gramming solutions for continuous state MDPs can be generalized to continu- ous state POMDPs with discrete observations, and (2) we show how this solution can be further extended via recently developed symbolic methods to continuous state and observations to derive the minimal relevant observation partitioning for potentially correlated, multivariate observation spaces. We demonstrate proof-of- concept results on uni- and multi-variate state and observation steam plant control.

Given a current news event, we tackle the problem of generating plausible predictions of future events it might cause. We present a new methodology for modeling and predicting such future news events using machine learning and data mining techniques. Our Pundit algorithm generalizes examples of causality pairs to infer a causality predictor. To obtain precisely labeled causality examples, we mine 150 years of news articles and apply semantic natural language modeling techniques to headlines containing certain predefined causality patterns. For generalization, the model uses a vast number of world knowledge ontologies. Empirical evaluation on real news articles shows that our Pundit algorithm performs as well as non-expert humans.

In this paper we introduce a micro-clustering strategy for Functional Boxplots. The aim is to summarize a set of streaming time series splitted in non overlapping windows. It is a two step strategy which performs at first, an on-line summarization by means of functional data structures, named Functional Boxplot micro-clusters; then it reveals the final summarization by processing, off-line, the functional data structures. Our main contribute consists in providing a new definition of micro-cluster based on Functional Boxplots and, in defining a proximity measure which allows to compare and update them. This allows to get a finer graphical summarization of the streaming time series by five functional basic statistics of data. The obtained synthesis will be able to keep track of the dynamic evolution of the multiple streams.

In this paper we propose an extension of Defeasible Logic to represent and compute three concepts of defeasible permission. In particular, we discuss different types of explicit permissive norms that work as exceptions to opposite obligations. Moreover, we show how strong permissions can be represented both with, and without introducing a new consequence relation for inferring conclusions from explicit permissive norms. Finally, we illustrate how a preference operator applicable to contrary-to-duty obligations can be combined with a new operator representing ordered sequences of strong permissions which derogate from prohibitions. The logical system is studied from a computational standpoint and is shown to have liner computational complexity.

There are several contexts of non-monotonic reasoning where a priority between rules is established whose purpose is preventing conflicts. One formalism that has been widely employed for non-monotonic reasoning is the sceptical one known as Defeasible Logic. In Defeasible Logic the tool used for conflict resolution is a preference relation between rules, that establishes the priority among them. In this paper we investigate how to modify such a preference relation in a defeasible logic theory in order to change the conclusions of the theory itself. We argue that the approach we adopt is applicable to legal reasoning where users, in general, cannot change facts or rules, but can propose their preferences about the relative strength of the rules. We provide a comprehensive study of the possible combinatorial cases and we identify and analyse the cases where the revision process is successful. After this analysis, we identify three revision/update operators and study them against the AGM postulates for belief revision operators, to discover that only a part of these postulates are satisfied by the three operators.

Artificial bee colony (ABC), an optimization algorithm is a recent addition to the family of population based search algorithm. ABC has taken its inspiration from the collective intelligent foraging behavior of honey bees. In this study we have incorporated golden section search mechanism in the structure of basic ABC to improve the global convergence and prevent to stick on a local solution. The proposed variant is termed as ILS-ABC. Comparative numerical results with the state-of-art algorithms show the performance of the proposal when applied to the set of unconstrained engineering design problems. The simulated results show that the proposed variant can be successfully applied to solve real life problems.

There is currently a growing interest in techniques for hiding parts of the signature of an ontology Kh that is being reused by another ontology Kv. Towards this goal, in this paper we propose the import-by-query framework, which makes the content of Kh accessible through a limited query interface. If Kv reuses the symbols from Kh in a certain restricted way, one can reason over Kv U Kh by accessing only Kv and the query interface. We map out the landscape of the import-by-query problem. In particular, we outline the limitations of our framework and prove that certain restrictions on the expressivity of Kh and the way in which Kv reuses symbols from Kh are strictly necessary to enable reasoning in our setting. We also identify cases in which reasoning is possible and we present suitable import-by-query reasoning algorithms.

Despite its simplicity, the naive Bayes classifier has surprised machine learning researchers by exhibiting good performance on a variety of learning problems. Encouraged by these results, researchers have looked to overcome naive Bayes primary weakness - attribute independence - and improve the performance of the algorithm. This paper presents a locally weighted version of naive Bayes that relaxes the independence assumption by learning local models at prediction time. Experimental results show that locally weighted naive Bayes rarely degrades accuracy compared to standard naive Bayes and, in many cases, improves accuracy dramatically. The main advantage of this method compared to other techniques for enhancing naive Bayes is its conceptual and computational simplicity.