Capability planning problems are pervasive throughout many areas of human interest with prominent examples found in defense and security. Planning provides a unique context for optimization that has not been explored in great detail and involves a number of interesting challenges which are distinct from traditional optimization research. Planning problems demand solutions that can satisfy a number of competing objectives on multiple scales related to robustness, adaptiveness, risk, etc. The scenario method is a key approach for planning. Scenarios can be defined for long-term as well as short-term plans. This paper introduces computational scenario-based planning problems and proposes ways to accommodate strategic positioning within the tactical planning domain. We demonstrate the methodology in a resource planning problem that is solved with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Our discussion and results highlight the fact that scenario-based planning is naturally framed within a multi-objective setting. However, the conflicting objectives occur on different system levels rather than within a single system alone. This paper also contends that planning problems are of vital interest in many human endeavors and that Evolutionary Computation may be well positioned for this problem domain.

Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

This paper demonstrates that simple yet important characteristics of coevolution can occur in evolutionary algorithms when only a few conditions are met. We find that interaction-based fitness measurements such as fitness (linear) ranking allow for a form of coevolutionary dynamics that is observed when 1) changes are made in what solutions are able to interact during the ranking process and 2) evolution takes place in a multi-objective environment. This research contributes to the study of simulated evolution in a at least two ways. First, it establishes a broader relationship between coevolution and multi-objective optimization than has been previously considered in the literature. Second, it demonstrates that the preconditions for coevolutionary behavior are weaker than previously thought. In particular, our model indicates that direct cooperation or competition between species is not required for coevolution to take place. Moreover, our experiments provide evidence that environmental perturbations can drive coevolutionary processes; a conclusion that mirrors arguments put forth in dual phase evolution theory. In the discussion, we briefly consider how our results may shed light onto this and other recent theories of evolution.

Understanding how systems can be designed to be evolvable is fundamental to research in optimization, evolution, and complex systems science. Many researchers have thus recognized the importance of evolvability, i.e. the ability to find new variants of higher fitness, in the fields of biological evolution and evolutionary computation. Recent studies by Ciliberti et al (Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 2007) and Wagner (Proc. R. Soc. B., 2008) propose a potentially important link between the robustness and the evolvability of a system. In particular, it has been suggested that robustness may actually lead to the emergence of evolvability. Here we study two design principles, redundancy and degeneracy, for achieving robustness and we show that they have a dramatically different impact on the evolvability of the system. In particular, purely redundant systems are found to have very little evolvability while systems with degeneracy, i.e. distributed robustness, can be orders of magnitude more evolvable. These results offer insights into the general principles for achieving evolvability and may prove to be an important step forward in the pursuit of evolvable representations in evolutionary computation.

We investigate the global GRAMMAR constraint over restricted classes of context free grammars like deterministic and unambiguous context-free grammars. We show that detecting disentailment for the GRAMMAR constraint in these cases is as hard as parsing an unrestricted context free grammar.We also consider the class of linear grammars and give a propagator that runs in quadratic time. Finally, to demonstrate the use of linear grammars, we show that a weighted linear GRAMMAR constraint can efficiently encode the EDITDISTANCE constraint, and a conjunction of the EDITDISTANCE constraint and the REGULAR constraint

Planning with temporally extended goals and uncontrollable events has recently been introduced as a formal model for system reconfiguration problems. An important application is to automatically reconfigure a real-life system in such a way that its subsequent internal evolution is consistent with a temporal goal formula. In this paper we introduce an incremental search algorithm and a search-guidance heuristic, two generic planning enhancements. An initial problem is decomposed into a series of subproblems, providing two main ways of speeding up a search. Firstly, a subproblem focuses on a part of the initial goal. Secondly, a notion of action relevance allows to explore with higher priority actions that are heuristically considered to be more relevant to the subproblem at hand. Even though our techniques are more generally applicable, we restrict our attention to planning with temporally extended goals and uncontrollable events. Our ideas are implemented on top of a successful previous system that performs online learning to better guide planning and to safely avoid potentially expensive searches. In experiments, the system speed performance is further improved by a convincing margin.

Despite the success of Gaussian processes (GPs) in modelling spatial stochastic processes, dealing with large datasets is still challenging. The problem arises by the need to invert a potentially large covariance matrix during inference. In this paper we address the complexity problem by constructing a new stationary covariance function (Mercer kernel) that naturally provides a sparse covariance matrix. The sparseness of the matrix is defined by hyper-parameters optimised during learning. The new covariance function enables exact GP inference and performs comparatively to the squared-exponential one, at a lower computational cost. This allows the application of GPs to large-scale problems such as ore grade prediction in mining or 3D surface modelling. Experiments show that using the proposed covariance function, very sparse covariance matrices are normally obtained which can be effectively used for faster inference and less memory usage.

Deciding consistency of constraint networks is a fundamental problem in qualitative spatial and temporal reasoning. In this paper we introduce a divide-and-conquer method that recursively partitions a given problem into smaller sub-problems in deciding consistency. We identify a key theoretical property of a qualitative calculus that ensures the soundness and completeness of this method, and show that it is satisfied by the Interval Algebra (IA) and the Point Algebra (PA). We develop a new encoding scheme for IA networks based on a combination of our divide-and-conquer method with an existing encoding of IA networks into SAT. We empirically show that our new encoding scheme scales to much larger problems and exhibits a consistent and significant improvement in efficiency over state-of-the-art solvers on the most difficult instances.

Real-time dynamic programming (RTDP) solves Markov decision processes (MDPs) when the initial state is restricted, by focusing dynamic programming on the envelope of states reachable from an initial state set. RTDP often provides performance guarantees without visiting the entire state space.  Building on RTDP, recent work has sought to improve its efficiency through various optimizations, including maintaining upper and lower bounds to both govern trial termination and prioritize state exploration. In this work, we take a Bayesian perspective on these upper and lower bounds and use a value of perfect information (VPI) analysis to govern trial termination and exploration in a novel algorithm we call VPI-RTDP.  VPI-RTDP leads to an improvement over state-of-the-art RTDP methods, empirically yielding up to a three-fold reduction in the amount of time and number of visited states required to achieve comparable policy performance.

Voting is a simple mechanism to aggregate the preferences of agents. Many voting rules have been shown to be NP-hard to manipulate. However, a number of recent theoretical results suggest that this complexity may only be in the worst-case since manipulation is often easy in practice. In this paper, we show that empirical studies are useful in improving our understanding of this issue. We demonstrate that there is a smooth transition in the probability  that a coalition can elect a desired candidate using the veto rule as the size of  the manipulating coalition increases. We show that a rescaled probability curve displays a simple and universal form independent of the size of the problem. We argue that manipulation of the veto rule is asymptotically easy for many independent and identically distributed votes even when the coalition of manipulators is critical in size.  Based on this argument, we identify a situation in which manipulation is computationally hard. This is when votes are highly correlated and the election is "hung." We show, however, that even a single uncorrelated voter is enough to make manipulation easy again.