Oceania
Evaluating the distribution learning capabilities of GANs
Rege, Amit, Monteleoni, Claire
We find that by and large GANs fail to faithfully datasets. To our knowledge, the only instance of synthetic recreate point datasets which contain discontinous image datasets used for GAN evaluation have been to learn support or sharp bends with noise. Additionally, manifolds of convex polygons (specifically triangles) (Lucic on image datasets, we find that GANs do et al., 2018). Although, we also use polygons as a testbed not seem to learn to count the number of objects for our experiments, we focus on learning a manifold with of the same kind in an image. We also highlight multiple polygons where their number is fixed.
Probabilistic CCA with Implicit Distributions
Shi, Yaxin, Pan, Yuangang, Xu, Donna, Tsang, Ivor
Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) is a classic technique for multi-view data analysis. To overcome the deficiency of linear correlation in practical multi-view learning tasks, various CCA variants were proposed to capture nonlinear dependency. However, it is non-trivial to have an in-principle understanding of these variants due to their inherent restrictive assumption on the data and latent code distributions. Although some works have studied probabilistic interpretation for CCA, these models still require the explicit form of the distributions to achieve a tractable solution for the inference. In this work, we study probabilistic interpretation for CCA based on implicit distributions. We present Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) as a new criterion for CCA to consider both linear and nonlinear dependency for arbitrarily distributed data. To eliminate direct estimation for CMI, in which explicit form of the distributions is still required, we derive an objective which can provide an estimation for CMI with efficient inference methods. To facilitate Bayesian inference of multi-view analysis, we propose Adversarial CCA (ACCA), which achieves consistent encoding for multi-view data with the consistent constraint imposed on the marginalization of the implicit posteriors. Such a model would achieve superiority in the alignment of the multi-view data with implicit distributions. It is interesting to note that most of the existing CCA variants can be connected with our proposed CCA model by assigning specific form for the posterior and likelihood distributions. Extensive experiments on nonlinear correlation analysis and cross-view generation on benchmark and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our model.
Gathering Cyber Threat Intelligence from Twitter Using Novelty Classification
Le, Ba Dung, Wang, Guanhua, Nasim, Mehwish, Babar, Ali
Preventing organizations from Cyber exploits needs timely intelligence about Cyber vulnerabilities and attacks, referred as threats. Cyber threat intelligence can be extracted from various sources including social media platforms where users publish the threat information in real time. Gathering Cyber threat intelligence from social media sites is a time consuming task for security analysts that can delay timely response to emerging Cyber threats. We propose a framework for automatically gathering Cyber threat intelligence from Twitter by using a novelty detection model. Our model learns the features of Cyber threat intelligence from the threat descriptions published in public repositories such as Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) and classifies a new unseen tweet as either normal or anomalous to Cyber threat intelligence. We evaluate our framework using a purpose-built data set of tweets from 50 influential Cyber security related accounts over twelve months (in 2018). Our classifier achieves the F1-score of 0.643 for classifying Cyber threat tweets and outperforms several baselines including binary classification models. Our analysis of the classification results suggests that Cyber threat relevant tweets on Twitter do not often include the CVE identifier of the related threats. Hence, it would be valuable to collect these tweets and associate them with the related CVE identifier for cyber security applications.
Circuit-Based Intrinsic Methods to Detect Overfitting
Chatterjee, Sat, Mishchenko, Alan
The focus of this paper is on intrinsic methods to detect overfitting. These rely only on the model and the training data, as opposed to traditional extrinsic methods that rely on performance on a test set or on bounds from model complexity. We propose a family of intrinsic methods called Counterfactual Simulation (CFS) which analyze the flow of training examples through the model by identifying and perturbing rare patterns. By applying CFS to logic circuits we get a method that has no hyper-parameters and works uniformly across different types of models such as neural networks, random forests and lookup tables. Experimentally, CFS can separate models with different levels of overfit using only their logic circuit representations without any access to the high level structure. By comparing lookup tables, neural networks, and random forests using CFS, we get insight into why neural networks generalize. In particular, we find that stochastic gradient descent in neural nets does not lead to "brute force" memorization, but finds common patterns (whether we train with actual or randomized labels), and neural networks are not unlike forests in this regard. Finally, we identify a limitation with our proposal that makes it unsuitable in an adversarial setting, but points the way to future work on robust intrinsic methods.
Gaussian Mixture Marginal Distributions for Modelling Remaining Pipe Wall Thickness of Critical Water Mains in Non-Destructive Evaluation
Nguyen, Linh, Miro, Jaime Valls, Shi, Lei, Vidal-Calleja, Teresa
Rapidly estimating the remaining wall thickness (RWT) is paramount for the non-destructive condition assessment evaluation of large critical metallic pipelines. A robotic vehicle with embedded magnetism-based sensors has been developed to traverse the inside of a pipeline and conduct inspections at the location of a break. However its sensing speed is constrained by the magnetic principle of operation, thus slowing down the overall operation in seeking dense RWT mapping. To ameliorate this drawback, this work proposes the partial scanning of the pipe and then employing Gaussian Processes (GPs) to infer RWT at the unseen pipe sections. Since GP prediction assumes to have normally distributed input data - which does correspond with real RWT measurements - Gaussian mixture (GM) models are proven in this work as fitting marginal distributions to effectively capture the probability of any RWT value in the inspected data. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is extensively validated from real-world data collected in collaboration with a water utility from a cast iron water main pipeline in Sydney, Australia.
Recommendations on Designing Practical Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Systems
Interval type-2 (IT2) fuzzy systems have become increasingly popular in the last 20 years. They have demonstrated superior performance in many applications. However, the operation of an IT2 fuzzy system is more complex than that of its type-1 counterpart. There are many questions to be answered in designing an IT2 fuzzy system: Should singleton or non-singleton fuzzifier be used? How many membership functions (MFs) should be used for each input? Should Gaussian or piecewise linear MFs be used? Should Mamdani or Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) inference be used? Should minimum or product $t$-norm be used? Should type-reduction be used or not? How to optimize the IT2 fuzzy system? These questions may look overwhelming and confusing to IT2 beginners. In this paper we recommend some representative starting choices for an IT2 fuzzy system design, which hopefully will make IT2 fuzzy systems more accessible to IT2 fuzzy system designers.
Sample Adaptive Multiple Kernel Learning for Failure Prediction of Railway Points
Li, Zhibin, Zhang, Jian, Wu, Qiang, Gong, Yongshun, Yi, Jinfeng, Kirsch, Christina
Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time interval or raised after the equipment failures. Instead, it would be of great value if we could forecast points' failures and take action beforehand, minimising any negative effect. To date, most of the existing prediction methods are either lab-based or relying on specially installed sensors which makes them infeasible for large-scale implementation. Besides, they often use data from only one source. We, therefore, explore a new way that integrates multi-source data which are ready to hand to fulfil this task. We conducted our case study based on Sydney Trains rail network which is an extensive network of passenger and freight railways. Unfortunately, the real-world data are usually incomplete due to various reasons, e.g., faults in the database, operational errors or transmission faults. Besides, railway points differ in their locations, types and some other properties, which means it is hard to use a unified model to predict their failures. Aiming at this challenging task, we firstly constructed a dataset from multiple sources and selected key features with the help of domain experts. In this paper, we formulate our prediction task as a multiple kernel learning problem with missing kernels. We present a robust multiple kernel learning algorithm for predicting points failures. Our model takes into account the missing pattern of data as well as the inherent variance on different sets of railway points. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm compared with other state-of-the-art methods.
Pathologist-Level Grading of Prostate Biopsies with Artificial Intelligence
Strรถm, Peter, Kartasalo, Kimmo, Olsson, Henrik, Solorzano, Leslie, Delahunt, Brett, Berney, Daniel M., Bostwick, David G., Evans, Andrew J., Grignon, David J., Humphrey, Peter A., Iczkowski, Kenneth A., Kench, James G., Kristiansen, Glen, van der Kwast, Theodorus H., Leite, Katia R. M., McKenney, Jesse K., Oxley, Jon, Pan, Chin-Chen, Samaratunga, Hemamali, Srigley, John R., Takahashi, Hiroyuki, Tsuzuki, Toyonori, Varma, Murali, Zhou, Ming, Lindberg, Johan, Bergstrรถm, Cecilia, Ruusuvuori, Pekka, Wรคhlby, Carolina, Grรถnberg, Henrik, Rantalainen, Mattias, Egevad, Lars, Eklund, Martin
Background: An increasing volume of prostate biopsies and a world-wide shortage of uro-pathologists puts a strain on pathology departments. Additionally, the high intra- and inter-observer variability in grading can result in over- and undertreatment of prostate cancer. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods may alleviate these problems by assisting pathologists to reduce workload and harmonize grading. Methods: We digitized 6,682 needle biopsies from 976 participants in the population based STHLM3 diagnostic study to train deep neural networks for assessing prostate biopsies. The networks were evaluated by predicting the presence, extent, and Gleason grade of malignant tissue for an independent test set comprising 1,631 biopsies from 245 men. We additionally evaluated grading performance on 87 biopsies individually graded by 23 experienced urological pathologists from the International Society of Urological Pathology. We assessed discriminatory performance by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and tumor extent predictions by correlating predicted millimeter cancer length against measurements by the reporting pathologist. We quantified the concordance between grades assigned by the AI and the expert urological pathologists using Cohen's kappa. Results: The performance of the AI to detect and grade cancer in prostate needle biopsy samples was comparable to that of international experts in prostate pathology. The AI achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.997 for distinguishing between benign and malignant biopsy cores, and 0.999 for distinguishing between men with or without prostate cancer. The correlation between millimeter cancer predicted by the AI and assigned by the reporting pathologist was 0.96. For assigning Gleason grades, the AI achieved an average pairwise kappa of 0.62. This was within the range of the corresponding values for the expert pathologists (0.60 to 0.73).
Elementary Iterated Revision and the Levi Identity
Chandler, Jake, Booth, Richard
Recent work has considered the problem of extending to the case of iterated belief change the so-called `Harper Identity' (HI), which defines single-shot contraction in terms of single-shot revision. The present paper considers the prospects of providing a similar extension of the Levi Identity (LI), in which the direction of definition runs the other way. We restrict our attention here to the three classic iterated revision operators--natural, restrained and lexicographic, for which we provide here the first collective characterisation in the literature, under the appellation of `elementary' operators. We consider two prima facie plausible ways of extending (LI). The first proposal involves the use of the rational closure operator to offer a `reductive' account of iterated revision in terms of iterated contraction. The second, which doesn't commit to reductionism, was put forward some years ago by Nayak et al. We establish that, for elementary revision operators and under mild assumptions regarding contraction, Nayak's proposal is equivalent to a new set of postulates formalising the claim that contraction by $\neg A$ should be considered to be a kind of `mild' revision by $A$. We then show that these, in turn, under slightly weaker assumptions, jointly amount to the conjunction of a pair of constraints on the extension of (HI) that were recently proposed in the literature. Finally, we consider the consequences of endorsing both suggestions and show that this would yield an identification of rational revision with natural revision. We close the paper by discussing the general prospects for defining iterated revision in terms of iterated contraction.
Adaptive Music Composition for Games
Hutchings, Patrick, McCormack, Jon
The generation of music that adapts dynamically to content and actions has an important role in building more immersive, memorable and emotive game experiences. To date, the development of adaptive music systems for video games is limited by both the nature of algorithms used for real-time music generation and the limited modelling of player action, game world context and emotion in current games. We propose that these issues must be addressed in tandem for the quality and flexibility of adaptive game music to significantly improve. Cognitive models of knowledge organisation and emotional affect are integrated with multi-modal, multi-agent composition techniques to produce a novel Adaptive Music System (AMS). The system is integrated into two stylistically distinct games. Gamers reported an overall higher immersion and correlation of music with game-world concepts with the AMS than with the original game soundtracks in both games.