Interval type-2 (IT2) fuzzy systems have become increasingly popular in the last 20 years. They have demonstrated superior performance in many applications. However, the operation of an IT2 fuzzy system is more complex than that of its type-1 counterpart. There are many questions to be answered in designing an IT2 fuzzy system: Should singleton or non-singleton fuzzifier be used? How many membership functions (MFs) should be used for each input? Should Gaussian or piecewise linear MFs be used? Should Mamdani or Takagi-Sugeno-Kang (TSK) inference be used? Should minimum or product $t$-norm be used? Should type-reduction be used or not? How to optimize the IT2 fuzzy system? These questions may look overwhelming and confusing to IT2 beginners. In this paper we recommend some representative starting choices for an IT2 fuzzy system design, which hopefully will make IT2 fuzzy systems more accessible to IT2 fuzzy system designers.

Railway points are among the key components of railway infrastructure. As a part of signal equipment, points control the routes of trains at railway junctions, having a significant impact on the reliability, capacity, and punctuality of rail transport. Traditionally, maintenance of points is based on a fixed time interval or raised after the equipment failures. Instead, it would be of great value if we could forecast points' failures and take action beforehand, minimising any negative effect. To date, most of the existing prediction methods are either lab-based or relying on specially installed sensors which makes them infeasible for large-scale implementation. Besides, they often use data from only one source. We, therefore, explore a new way that integrates multi-source data which are ready to hand to fulfil this task. We conducted our case study based on Sydney Trains rail network which is an extensive network of passenger and freight railways. Unfortunately, the real-world data are usually incomplete due to various reasons, e.g., faults in the database, operational errors or transmission faults. Besides, railway points differ in their locations, types and some other properties, which means it is hard to use a unified model to predict their failures. Aiming at this challenging task, we firstly constructed a dataset from multiple sources and selected key features with the help of domain experts. In this paper, we formulate our prediction task as a multiple kernel learning problem with missing kernels. We present a robust multiple kernel learning algorithm for predicting points failures. Our model takes into account the missing pattern of data as well as the inherent variance on different sets of railway points. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of our algorithm compared with other state-of-the-art methods.

Background: An increasing volume of prostate biopsies and a world-wide shortage of uro-pathologists puts a strain on pathology departments. Additionally, the high intra- and inter-observer variability in grading can result in over- and undertreatment of prostate cancer. Artificial intelligence (AI) methods may alleviate these problems by assisting pathologists to reduce workload and harmonize grading. Methods: We digitized 6,682 needle biopsies from 976 participants in the population based STHLM3 diagnostic study to train deep neural networks for assessing prostate biopsies. The networks were evaluated by predicting the presence, extent, and Gleason grade of malignant tissue for an independent test set comprising 1,631 biopsies from 245 men. We additionally evaluated grading performance on 87 biopsies individually graded by 23 experienced urological pathologists from the International Society of Urological Pathology. We assessed discriminatory performance by receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and tumor extent predictions by correlating predicted millimeter cancer length against measurements by the reporting pathologist. We quantified the concordance between grades assigned by the AI and the expert urological pathologists using Cohen's kappa. Results: The performance of the AI to detect and grade cancer in prostate needle biopsy samples was comparable to that of international experts in prostate pathology. The AI achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.997 for distinguishing between benign and malignant biopsy cores, and 0.999 for distinguishing between men with or without prostate cancer. The correlation between millimeter cancer predicted by the AI and assigned by the reporting pathologist was 0.96. For assigning Gleason grades, the AI achieved an average pairwise kappa of 0.62. This was within the range of the corresponding values for the expert pathologists (0.60 to 0.73).

Recent work has considered the problem of extending to the case of iterated belief change the so-called `Harper Identity' (HI), which defines single-shot contraction in terms of single-shot revision. The present paper considers the prospects of providing a similar extension of the Levi Identity (LI), in which the direction of definition runs the other way. We restrict our attention here to the three classic iterated revision operators--natural, restrained and lexicographic, for which we provide here the first collective characterisation in the literature, under the appellation of `elementary' operators. We consider two prima facie plausible ways of extending (LI). The first proposal involves the use of the rational closure operator to offer a `reductive' account of iterated revision in terms of iterated contraction. The second, which doesn't commit to reductionism, was put forward some years ago by Nayak et al. We establish that, for elementary revision operators and under mild assumptions regarding contraction, Nayak's proposal is equivalent to a new set of postulates formalising the claim that contraction by $\neg A$ should be considered to be a kind of `mild' revision by $A$. We then show that these, in turn, under slightly weaker assumptions, jointly amount to the conjunction of a pair of constraints on the extension of (HI) that were recently proposed in the literature. Finally, we consider the consequences of endorsing both suggestions and show that this would yield an identification of rational revision with natural revision. We close the paper by discussing the general prospects for defining iterated revision in terms of iterated contraction.

The generation of music that adapts dynamically to content and actions has an important role in building more immersive, memorable and emotive game experiences. To date, the development of adaptive music systems for video games is limited by both the nature of algorithms used for real-time music generation and the limited modelling of player action, game world context and emotion in current games. We propose that these issues must be addressed in tandem for the quality and flexibility of adaptive game music to significantly improve. Cognitive models of knowledge organisation and emotional affect are integrated with multi-modal, multi-agent composition techniques to produce a novel Adaptive Music System (AMS). The system is integrated into two stylistically distinct games. Gamers reported an overall higher immersion and correlation of music with game-world concepts with the AMS than with the original game soundtracks in both games.

Echo state networks are computationally lightweight reservoir models inspired by the random projections observed in cortical circuitry. As interest in reservoir computing has grown, networks have become deeper and more intricate. While these networks are increasingly applied to nontrivial forecasting tasks, there is a need for comprehensive performance analysis of deep reservoirs. In this work, we study the influence of partitioning neurons given a budget and the effect of parallel reservoir pathways across different datasets exhibiting multi-scale and nonlinear dynamics.

Social media signals have been successfully used to develop large-scale predictive and anticipatory analytics. For example, forecasting stock market prices and influenza outbreaks. Recently, social data has been explored to forecast price fluctuations of cryptocurrencies, which are a novel disruptive technology with significant political and economic implications. In this paper we leverage and contrast the predictive power of social signals, specifically user behavior and communication patterns, from multiple social platforms GitHub and Reddit to forecast prices for three cyptocurrencies with high developer and community interest - Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. We evaluate the performance of neural network models that rely on long short-term memory units (LSTMs) trained on historical price data and social data against price only LSTMs and baseline autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, commonly used to predict stock prices. Our results not only demonstrate that social signals reduce error when forecasting daily coin price, but also show that the language used in comments within the official communities on Reddit (r/Bitcoin, r/Ethereum, and r/Monero) are the best predictors overall. We observe that models are more accurate in forecasting price one day ahead for Bitcoin (4% root mean squared percent error) compared to Ethereum (7%) and Monero (8%).

Parallel deep learning architectures like fine-tuned BERT and MT-DNN, have quickly become the state of the art, bypassing previous deep and shallow learning methods by a large margin. More recently, pre-trained models from large related datasets have been able to perform well on many downstream tasks by just fine-tuning on domain-specific datasets . However, using powerful models on non-trivial tasks, such as ranking and large document classification, still remains a challenge due to input size limitations of parallel architecture and extremely small datasets (insufficient for fine-tuning). In this work, we introduce an end-to-end system, trained in a multi-task setting, to filter and re-rank answers in the medical domain. We use task-specific pre-trained models as deep feature extractors. Our model achieves the highest Spearman's Rho and Mean Reciprocal Rank of 0.338 and 0.9622 respectively, on the ACL-BioNLP workshop MediQA Question Answering shared-task.

We examine a reductions approach to fair optimization and learning where a black-box optimizer is used to learn a fair model for classification or regression [Alabi et al., 2018, Agarwal et al., 2018] and explore the creation of such fair models that adhere to data privacy guarantees (specifically differential privacy). For this approach, we consider two suites of use cases: the first is for optimizing convex performance measures of the confusion matrix (such as $G$-mean and $H$-mean); the second is for satisfying statistical definitions of algorithmic fairness (such as equalized odds, demographic parity, and the gini index of inequality). The reductions approach to fair optimization can be abstracted as the constrained group-objective optimization problem where we aim to optimize an objective that is a function of losses of individual groups, subject to some constraints. We present two differentially private algorithms: an $(\epsilon, 0)$ exponential sampling algorithm and an $(\epsilon, \delta)$ algorithm that uses a linear optimizer to incrementally move toward the best decision. We analyze the privacy and utility guarantees of these empirical risk minimization algorithms. Compared to a previous method for ensuring differential privacy subject to a relaxed form of the equalized odds fairness constraint, the $(\epsilon, \delta)$ differentially private algorithm we present provides asymptotically better sample complexity guarantees. The technique of using an approximate linear optimizer oracle to achieve privacy might be applicable to other problems not considered in this paper. Finally, we show an algorithm-agnostic lower bound on the accuracy of any solution to the problem of $(\epsilon, 0)$ or $(\epsilon, \delta)$ private constrained group-objective optimization.

We discuss the objectives of any endeavor in creating artificial intelligence, AI, and provide a possible alternative. Intelligence might be an unintended consequence of curiosity left to roam free, best exemplified by a frolicking infant. This suggests that our attempts at AI could have been misguided; what we actually need to strive for can be termed artificial curiosity, AC, and intelligence happens as a consequence of those efforts. For this unintentional yet welcome aftereffect to set in a foundational list of guiding principles needs to be present. We discuss what these essential doctrines might be and why their establishment is required to form connections, possibly growing, between a knowledge store that has been built up and new pieces of information that curiosity will bring back. As more findings are acquired and more bonds are fermented, we need a way to, periodically, reduce the amount of data; in the sense, it is important to capture the critical characteristics of what has been accumulated or produce a summary of what has been gathered. We start with the intuition for this line of reasoning and formalize it with a series of models (and iterative improvements) that will be necessary to make the incubation of intelligence a reality. Our discussion provides conceptual modifications to the Turing Test and to Searle's Chinese room argument. We discuss the future implications for society as AI becomes an integral part of life.