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Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Working with any gradient-based machine learning algorithm involves the tedious task of tuning the optimizer's hyperparameters, such as the learning rate. There exist many techniques for automated hyperparameter optimization, but they typically introduce even more hyperparameters to control the hyperparameter optimization process. We propose to instead learn the hyperparameters themselves by gradient descent, and furthermore to learn the hyper-hyperparameters by gradient descent as well, and so on ad infinitum. As these towers of gradient-based optimizers grow, they become significantly less sensitive to the choice of top-level hyperparameters, hence decreasing the burden on the user to search for optimal values.


Context agnostic trajectory prediction based on $\lambda$-architecture

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Predicting the next position of movable objects has been a problem for at least the last three decades, referred to as trajectory prediction. In our days, the vast amounts of data being continuously produced add the big data dimension to the trajectory prediction problem, which we are trying to tackle by creating a {\lambda}-Architecture based analytics platform. This platform performs both batch and stream analytics tasks and then combines them to perform analytical tasks that cannot be performed by analyzing any of these layers by itself. The biggest benefit of this platform is its context agnostic trait, which allows us to use it for any use case, as long as a time-stamped geolocation stream is provided. The experimental results presented prove that each part of the {\lambda}-Architecture performs well at certain targets, making a combination of these parts a necessity in order to improve the overall accuracy and performance of the platform.


Generating Diverse Story Continuations with Controllable Semantics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a simple and effective modeling framework for controlled generation of multiple, diverse outputs. We focus on the setting of generating the next sentence of a story given its context. As controllable dimensions, we consider several sentence attributes, including sentiment, length, predicates, frames, and automatically-induced clusters. Our empirical results demonstrate: (1) our framework is accurate in terms of generating outputs that match the target control values; (2) our model yields increased maximum metric scores compared to standard n -best list generation via beam search; (3) controlling generation with semantic frames leads to a stronger combination of diversity and quality than other control variables as measured by automatic metrics. We also conduct a human evaluation to assess the utility of providing multiple suggestions for creative writing, demonstrating promising results for the potential of controllable, diverse generation in a collaborative writing system.


CSPLib: Twenty Years On

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In 1999, we introduced CSPLib, a benchmark library for the constraints community. Our CP-1999 poster paper about CSPLib discussed the advantages and disadvantages of building such a library. Unlike some other domains such as theorem proving, or machine learning, representation was then and remains today a major issue in the success or failure to solve problems. Benchmarks in CSPLib are therefore specified in natural language as this allows users to find good representations for themselves. The community responded positively and CSPLib has become a valuable resource but, as we discuss here, we cannot rest.


A Constructive Prediction of the Generalization Error Across Scales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The dependency of the generalization error of neural networks on model and dataset size is of critical importance both in practice and for understanding the theory of neural networks. Nevertheless, the functional form of this dependency remains elusive. In this work, we present a functional form which approximates well the generalization error in practice. Capitalizing on the successful concept of model scaling (e.g., width, depth), we are able to simultaneously construct such a form and specify the exact models which can attain it across model/data scales. Our construction follows insights obtained from observations conducted over a range of model/data scales, in various model types and datasets, in vision and language tasks. We show that the form both fits the observations well across scales, and provides accurate predictions from small- to large-scale models and data.


A New Covariance Estimator for Sufficient Dimension Reduction in High-Dimensional and Undersized Sample Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The application of standard sufficient dimension reduction methods for reducing the dimension space of predictors without losing regression information requires inverting the covariance matrix of the predictors. This has posed a number of challenges especially when analyzing high-dimensional data sets in which the number of predictors $\mathit{p}$ is much larger than number of samples $n,~(n\ll p)$. A new covariance estimator, called the \textit{Maximum Entropy Covariance} (MEC) that addresses loss of covariance information when similar covariance matrices are linearly combined using \textit{Maximum Entropy} (ME) principle is proposed in this work. By benefitting naturally from slicing or discretizing range of the response variable, y into \textit{H} non-overlapping categories, $\mathit{h_{1},\ldots ,h_{H}}$, MEC first combines covariance matrices arising from samples in each y slice $\mathit{h\in H}$ and then select the one that maximizes entropy under the principle of maximum uncertainty. The MEC estimator is then formed from convex mixture of such entropy-maximizing sample covariance $S_{\mbox{mec}}$ estimate and pooled sample covariance $\mathbf{S}_{\mathit{p}}$ estimate across the $\mathit{H}$ slices without requiring time-consuming covariance optimization procedures. MEC deals directly with singularity and instability of sample group covariance estimate in both regression and classification problems. The efficiency of the MEC estimator is studied with the existing sufficient dimension reduction methods such as \textit{Sliced Inverse Regression} (SIR) and \textit{Sliced Average Variance Estimator} (SAVE) as demonstrated on both classification and regression problems using real life Leukemia cancer data and customers' electricity load profiles from smart meter data sets respectively.


Stock Market Forecasting Based on Text Mining Technology: A Support Vector Machine Method

arXiv.org Machine Learning

News items have a significant impact on stock markets but the ways are obscure. Many previous works have aimed at finding accurate stock market forecasting models. In this paper, we use text mining and sentiment analysis on Chinese online financial news, to predict Chinese stock tendency and stock prices based on support vector machine (SVM). Firstly, we collect 2,302,692 news items, which date from 1/1/2008 to 1/1/2015. Secondly, based on this dataset, a specific domain stop-word dictionary and a precise sentiment dictionary are formed. Thirdly, we propose a forecasting model using SVM. On the algorithm of SVM implementation, we also propose two-parameter optimization algorithms to search for the best initial parameter setting. The result shows that parameter G has the main effect, while parameter C's effect is not obvious. Furthermore, support vector regression (SVR) models for different Chinese stocks are similar whereas in support vector classification (SVC) models best parameters are quite differential. Series of contrast experiments show that: a) News has significant influence on stock market; b) Expansion input vector for additional situations when that day has no news data is better than normal input in SVR, yet is worse in SVC; c) SVR shows a fantastic degree of fitting in predicting stock fluctuation while such result has some time lag; d) News effect time lag for stock market is less than two days; e) In SVC, historic stock data has a most efficient time lag which is about 10 days, whereas in SVR this effect is not obvious. Besides, based on the special structure of the input vector, we also design a method to calculate the financial source impact factor. Result suggests that the news quality and audience number both have a significant effect on the source impact factor. Besides, for Chinese investors, traditional media has more influence than digital media.


Improved histogram-based anomaly detector with the extended principal component features

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this era of big data, databases are growing rapidly in terms of the number of records. Fast automatic detection of anomalous records in these massive databases is a challenging task. Traditional distance based anomaly detectors are not applicable in these massive datasets. Recently, a simple but extremely fast anomaly detector using one-dimensional histograms has been introduced. The anomaly score of a data instance is computed as the product of the probability mass of histograms in each dimensions where it falls into. It is shown to produce competitive results compared to many state-of-the-art methods in many datasets. Because it assumes data features are independent of each other, it results in poor detection accuracy when there is correlation between features. To address this issue, we propose to increase the feature size by adding more features based on principal components. Our results show that using the original input features together with principal components improves the detection accuracy of histogram-based anomaly detector significantly without compromising much in terms of run-time.


Federated User Representation Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Collaborative personalization, such as through learned user representations (em-beddings), can improve the prediction accuracy of neural-network-based models significantly. We propose Federated User Representation Learning (FURL), a simple, scalable, privacy-preserving and resource-efficient way to utilize existing neural personalization techniques in the Federated Learning (FL) setting. FURL divides model parameters into federated and private parameters. Private parameters, such as private user embeddings, are trained locally, but unlike federated parameters, they are not transferred to or averaged on the server. We show theoretically that this parameter split does not affect training for most model per-sonalization approaches. Storing user embeddings locally not only preserves user privacy, but also improves memory locality of personalization compared to on-server training. We evaluate FURL on two datasets, demonstrating a significant improvement in model quality with 8% and 51% performance increases, and approximately the same level of performance as centralized training with only 0% and 4% reductions. Furthermore, we show that user embeddings learned in FL and the centralized setting have a very similar structure, indicating that FURL can learn collaboratively through the shared parameters while preserving user privacy.


SAT vs CSP: a commentary

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In 2000, I published a relatively comprehensive study of mappings between propositional satisfiability (SAT) and constraint satisfaction problems (CSPs) [Wal00]. I analysed four different mappings of SAT problems into CSPs, and two of CSPs into SAT problems. For each mapping, I compared the impact of achieving arc-consistency on the CSP with unit propagation on the corresponding SAT problems, and lifted these results to CSP algorithms that maintain (some level of ) arc-consistency during search like FC and MAC, and to the Davis- Putnam procedure (which performs unit propagation at each search node). These results helped provide some insight into the relationship between propositional satisfiability and constraint satisfaction that set the scene for an important and valuable body of work that followed. I discuss here what prompted the paper, and what followed.