Hierarchical forecasting methods have been widely used to support aligned decision-making by providing coherent forecasts at different aggregation levels. Traditional hierarchical forecasting approaches, such as the bottom-up and top-down methods, focus on a particular aggregation level to anchor the forecasts. During the past decades, these have been replaced by a variety of linear combination approaches that exploit information from the complete hierarchy to produce more accurate forecasts. However, the performance of these combination methods depends on the particularities of the examined series and their relationships. This paper proposes a novel hierarchical forecasting approach based on machine learning that deals with these limitations in three important ways. First, the proposed method allows for a non-linear combination of the base forecasts, thus being more general than the linear approaches. Second, it structurally combines the objectives of improved post-sample empirical forecasting accuracy and coherence. Finally, due to its non-linear nature, our approach selectively combines the base forecasts in a direct and automated way without requiring that the complete information must be used for producing reconciled forecasts for each series and level. The proposed method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and bias using two different data sets coming from the tourism and retail industries. Our results suggest that the proposed method gives superior point forecasts than existing approaches, especially when the series comprising the hierarchy are not characterized by the same patterns.

Knowledge Graphs (KGs) have gained considerable attention recently from both academia and industry. In fact, incorporating graph technology and the copious of various graph datasets have led the research community to build sophisticated graph analytics tools. Therefore, the application of KGs has extended to tackle a plethora of real-life problems in dissimilar domains. Despite the abundance of the currently proliferated generic KGs, there is a vital need to construct domain-specific KGs. Further, quality and credibility should be assimilated in the process of constructing and augmenting KGs, particularly those propagated from mixed-quality resources such as social media data. This paper presents a novel credibility domain-based KG Embedding framework. This framework involves capturing a fusion of data obtained from heterogeneous resources into a formal KG representation depicted by a domain ontology. The proposed approach makes use of various knowledge-based repositories to enrich the semantics of the textual contents, thereby facilitating the interoperability of information. The proposed framework also embodies a credibility module to ensure data quality and trustworthiness. The constructed KG is then embedded in a low-dimension semantically-continuous space using several embedding techniques. The utility of the constructed KG and its embeddings is demonstrated and substantiated on link prediction, clustering, and visualisation tasks.

Learning classifier systems (LCSs) originated from cognitive-science research but migrated such that LCS became powerful classification techniques. Modern LCSs can be used to extract building blocks of knowledge to solve more difficult problems in the same or a related domain. Recent works on LCSs showed that the knowledge reuse through the adoption of Code Fragments, GP-like tree-based programs, into LCSs could provide advances in scaling. However, since solving hard problems often requires constructing high-level building blocks, which also results in an intractable search space, a limit of scaling will eventually be reached. Inspired by human problem-solving abilities, XCSCF* can reuse learned knowledge and learned functionality to scale to complex problems by transferring them from simpler problems using layered learning. However, this method was unrefined and suited to only the Multiplexer problem domain. In this paper, we propose improvements to XCSCF* to enable it to be robust across multiple problem domains. This is demonstrated on the benchmarks Multiplexer, Carry-one, Majority-on, and Even-parity domains. The required base axioms necessary for learning are proposed, methods for transfer learning in LCSs developed and learning recast as a decomposition into a series of subordinate problems. Results show that from a conventional tabula rasa, with only a vague notion of what subordinate problems might be relevant, it is possible to capture the general logic behind the tested domains, so the advanced system is capable of solving any individual n-bit Multiplexer, n-bit Carry-one, n-bit Majority-on, or n-bit Even-parity problem.

To maximize cumulative user engagement (e.g. cumulative clicks) in sequential recommendation, it is often needed to tradeoff two potentially conflicting objectives, that is, pursuing higher immediate user engagement (e.g., click-through rate) and encouraging user browsing (i.e., more items exposured). Existing works often study these two tasks separately, thus tend to result in sub-optimal results. In this paper, we study this problem from an online optimization perspective, and propose a flexible and practical framework to explicitly tradeoff longer user browsing length and high immediate user engagement. Specifically, by considering items as actions, user's requests as states and user leaving as an absorbing state, we formulate each user's behavior as a personalized Markov decision process (MDP), and the problem of maximizing cumulative user engagement is reduced to a stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem. Meanwhile, with immediate user engagement and quit probability estimation, it is shown that the SSP problem can be efficiently solved via dynamic programming. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Moreover, this approach is deployed at a large E-commerce platform, achieved over 7% improvement of cumulative clicks.

Machine Learning (ML) models are often complex and difficult to interpret due to their 'black-box' characteristics. Interpretability of a ML model is usually defined as the degree to which a human can understand the cause of decisions reached by a ML model. Interpretability is of extremely high importance in many fields of healthcare due to high levels of risk related to decisions based on ML models. Calibration of the ML model outputs is another issue often overlooked in the application of ML models in practice. This paper represents an early work in examination of prediction model calibration impact on the interpretability of the results. We present a use case of a patient in diabetes screening prediction scenario and visualize results using three different techniques to demonstrate the differences between calibrated and uncalibrated regularized regression model.

Alzheimer's Disease (AD) ravages the cognitive ability of more than 5 million Americans and creates an enormous strain on the health care system. This paper proposes a machine learning predictive model for AD development without medical imaging and with fewer clinical visits and tests, in hopes of earlier and cheaper diagnoses. That earlier diagnoses could be critical in the effectiveness of any drug or medical treatment to cure this disease. Our model is trained and validated using demographic, biomarker and cognitive test data from two prominent research studies: Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and Australian Imaging, Biomarker & Lifestyle Flagship Study of Aging (AIBL). We systematically explore different machine learning models, pre-processing methods and feature selection techniques. The most performant model demonstrates greater than 90% accuracy and recall in predicting AD, and the results generalize across sub-studies of ADNI and to the independent AIBL study. We also demonstrate that these results are robust to reducing the number of clinical visits or tests per visit. Using a metaclassification algorithm and longitudinal data analysis we are able to produce a "lean" diagnostic protocol with only 3 tests and 4 clinical visits that can predict Alzheimer's development with 87% accuracy and 79% recall. This novel work can be adapted into a practical early diagnostic tool for predicting the development of Alzheimer's that maximizes accuracy while minimizing the number of necessary diagnostic tests and clinical visits.

Discovering the underlying behavior of complex systems is an important topic in many science and engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network framework, finite difference neural networks (FD-Net), to learn partial differential equations from data. Specifically, our proposed finite difference inspired network is designed to learn the underlying governing partial differential equations from trajectory data, and to iteratively estimate the future dynamical behavior using only a few trainable parameters. We illustrate the performance (predictive power) of our framework on the heat equation, with and without noise and/or forcing, and compare our results to the Forward Euler method. Moreover, we show the advantages of using a Hessian-Free Trust Region method to train the network.

We propose a new technique to accelerate algorithms based on Gradient Descent using Carath\'eodory's Theorem. In the case of the standard Gradient Descent algorithm, we analyse the theoretical convergence of the approach under convexity assumptions and empirically display its ameliorations. As a core contribution, we then present an application of the acceleration technique to Block Coordinate Descent methods. Experimental comparisons on least squares regression with a LASSO regularisation term show remarkably improved performance on LASSO than the ADAM and SAG algorithms.

Stochastic optimization algorithms have become indispensable in modern machine learning. An unresolved foundational question in this area is the difference between with-replacement sampling and without-replacement sampling -- does the latter have superior convergence rate compared to the former? A groundbreaking result of Recht and R\'e reduces the problem to a noncommutative analogue of the arithmetic-geometric mean inequality where $n$ positive numbers are replaced by $n$ positive definite matrices. If this inequality holds for all $n$, then without-replacement sampling indeed outperforms with-replacement sampling. The conjectured Recht-R\'e inequality has so far only been established for $n = 2$ and a special case of $n = 3$. We will show that the Recht-R\'e conjecture is false for general $n$. Our approach relies on the noncommutative Positivstellensatz, which allows us to reduce the conjectured inequality to a semidefinite program and the validity of the conjecture to certain bounds for the optimum values, which we show are false as soon as $n = 5$.

Measurement of the red damping wing of neutral hydrogen in quasar spectra provides a probe of the epoch of reionization in the early Universe. Such quantification requires precise and unbiased estimates of the intrinsic continua near Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$), a challenging task given the highly variable Ly$\alpha$ emission profiles of quasars. Here, we introduce a fully probabilistic approach to intrinsic continua prediction. We frame the problem as a conditional density estimation task and explicitly model the distribution over plausible blue-side continua ($1190\ \unicode{xC5} \leq \lambda_{\text{rest}} < 1290\ \unicode{xC5}$) conditional on the red-side spectrum ($1290\ \unicode{xC5} \leq \lambda_{\text{rest}} < 2900\ \unicode{xC5}$) using normalizing flows. Our approach achieves state-of-the-art precision and accuracy, allows for sampling one thousand plausible continua in less than a tenth of a second, and can natively provide confidence intervals on the blue-side continua via Monte Carlo sampling. We measure the damping wing effect in two $z>7$ quasars and estimate the volume-averaged neutral fraction of hydrogen from each, finding $\bar{x}_\text{HI}=0.304 \pm 0.042$ for ULAS J1120+0641 ($z=7.09$) and $\bar{x}_\text{HI}=0.384 \pm 0.133$ for ULAS J1342+0928 ($z=7.54$).