Picking an item in the presence of other objects can be challenging as it involves occlusions and partial views. Given object models, one approach is to perform object pose estimation and use the most likely candidate pose per object to pick the target without collisions. This approach, however, ignores the uncertainty of the perception process both regarding the target's and the surrounding objects' poses. This work proposes first a perception process for 6D pose estimation, which returns a discrete distribution of object poses in a scene. Then, an open-loop planning pipeline is proposed to return safe and effective solutions for moving a robotic arm to pick, which (a) minimizes the probability of collision with the obstructing objects; and (b) maximizes the probability of reaching the target item. The planning framework models the challenge as a stochastic variant of the Minimum Constraint Removal (MCR) problem. The effectiveness of the methodology is verified given both simulated and real data in different scenarios. The experiments demonstrate the importance of considering the uncertainty of the perception process in terms of safe execution. The results also show that the methodology is more effective than conservative MCR approaches, which avoid all possible object poses regardless of the reported uncertainty.

Recent trends in AI verification and Explainable AI have raised the question of whether AI planning techniques can be verified. In this paper, we present a novel resource logic, the Proof Carrying Plans (PCP) logic that can be used to verify plans produced by AI planners. The PCP logic takes inspiration from existing resource logics (such as Linear logic and Separation logic) as well as Hoare logic when it comes to modelling states and resource-aware plan execution. It also capitalises on the Curry-Howard approach to logics, in its treatment of plans as functions and plan pre- and post-conditions as types. This paper presents two main results. From the theoretical perspective, we show that the PCP logic is sound relative to the standard possible world semantics used in AI planning. From the practical perspective, we present a complete Agda formalisation of the PCP logic and of its soundness proof. Moreover, we showcase the Curry-Howard, or functional, value of this implementation by supplementing it with the library that parses AI plans into Agda's proofs automatically. We provide evaluation of this library and the resulting Agda functions.

Camera-based end-to-end driving neural networks bring the promise of a low-cost system that maps camera images to driving control commands. These networks are appealing because they replace laborious hand engineered building blocks but their black-box nature makes them difficult to delve in case of failure. Recent works have shown the importance of using an explicit intermediate representation that has the benefits of increasing both the interpretability and the accuracy of networks' decisions. Nonetheless, these camera-based networks reason in camera view where scale is not homogeneous and hence not directly suitable for motion forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a novel monocular camera-only holistic end-to-end trajectory planning network with a Bird-Eye-View (BEV) intermediate representation that comes in the form of binary Occupancy Grid Maps (OGMs). To ease the prediction of OGMs in BEV from camera images, we introduce a novel scheme where the OGMs are first predicted as semantic masks in camera view and then warped in BEV using the homography between the two planes. The key element allowing this transformation to be applied to 3D objects such as vehicles, consists in predicting solely their footprint in camera-view, hence respecting the flat world hypothesis implied by the homography.

This paper studies novel subgoaling relaxations for automated planning with propositional and numeric state variables. Subgoaling relaxations address one source of complexity of the planning problem: the requirement to satisfy conditions simultaneously. The core idea is to relax this requirement by recursively decomposing conditions into atomic subgoals that are considered in isolation. Such relaxations are typically used for pruning, or as the basis for computing admissible or inadmissible heuristic estimates to guide optimal or satisificing heuristic search planners. In the last decade or so, the subgoaling principle has underpinned the design of an abundance of relaxation-based heuristics whose formulations have greatly extended the reach of classical planning. This paper extends subgoaling relaxations to support numeric state variables and numeric conditions. We provide both theoretical and practical results, with the aim of reaching a good trade-off between accuracy and computation costs within a heuristic state-space search planner. Our experimental results validate the theoretical assumptions, and indicate that subgoaling substantially improves on the state of the art in optimal and satisficing numeric planning via forward state-space search.

In this paper, we study the problem of learning continuous vector representations of knowledge graphs for predicting missing links. We present a new approach called ConEx, which infers missing links by leveraging the composition of a 2D convolution with a Hermitian inner product of complex-valued embedding vectors. We evaluate ConEx against state-of-the-art approaches on the WN18RR, FB15K-237, KINSHIP and UMLS benchmark datasets. Our experimental results show that ConEx achieves a performance superior to that of state-of-the-art approaches such as RotatE, QuatE and TuckER on the link prediction task on all datasets while requiring at least 8 times fewer parameters. We ensure the reproducibility of our results by providing an open-source implementation which includes the training, evaluation scripts along with pre-trained models at https://github.com/conex-kge/ConEx.

Deep neural networks have become popular for many machine learning applications, since they provide simple strategies for end-to-end learning of complex representations. However, success can be highly sensitive to network architectures, which places a great demand on manual engineering of architectures and hyper-parameter tuning. A typical human-designed convolutional neural architecture is composed of two types of computational modules: i) a normal layer, such as a stride-1 convolution or an identity mapping, which maintains the spatial dimension of incoming feature maps; ii) a resizing layer, such as max/average pooling, bilinear sampling, or stride-2 convolution, which reshapes the incoming feature map into a different spatial dimension. We hereby define the shape of a neural network as the composition of the feature dimensions in all network layers, and the architecture as the overall structure formed by stacking multiple normal and resizing layers.

Forecasting groups of time series is of increasing practical importance, e.g. forecasting the demand for multiple products offered by a retailer or server loads within a data center. The local approach to this problem considers each time series separately and fits a function or model to each series. The global approach fits a single function to all series. For groups of similar time series, global methods outperform the more established local methods. However, recent results show good performance of global models even in heterogeneous datasets. This suggests a more general applicability of global methods, potentially leading to more accurate tools and new scenarios to study. Formalizing the setting of forecasting a set of time series with local and global methods, we provide the following contributions: 1) Global methods are not more restrictive than local methods, both can produce the same forecasts without any assumptions about similarity of the series. Global models can succeed in a wider range of problems than previously thought. 2) Basic generalization bounds for local and global algorithms. The complexity of local methods grows with the size of the set while it remains constant for global methods. In large datasets, a global algorithm can afford to be quite complex and still benefit from better generalization. These bounds serve to clarify and support recent experimental results in the field, and guide the design of new algorithms. For the class of autoregressive models, this implies that global models can have much larger memory than local methods. 3) In an extensive empirical study, purposely naive algorithms derived from these principles, such as global linear models or deep networks result in superior accuracy. In particular, global linear models can provide competitive accuracy with two orders of magnitude fewer parameters than local methods.

This paper investigates the optimization problem of an infinite stage discrete time Markov decision process (MDP) with a long-run average metric considering both mean and variance of rewards together. Such performance metric is important since the mean indicates average returns and the variance indicates risk or fairness. However, the variance metric couples the rewards at all stages, the traditional dynamic programming is inapplicable as the principle of time consistency fails. We study this problem from a new perspective called the sensitivity-based optimization theory. A performance difference formula is derived and it can quantify the difference of the mean-variance combined metrics of MDPs under any two different policies. The difference formula can be utilized to generate new policies with strictly improved mean-variance performance. A necessary condition of the optimal policy and the optimality of deterministic policies are derived. We further develop an iterative algorithm with a form of policy iteration, which is proved to converge to local optima both in the mixed and randomized policy space. Specially, when the mean reward is constant in policies, the algorithm is guaranteed to converge to the global optimum. Finally, we apply our approach to study the fluctuation reduction of wind power in an energy storage system, which demonstrates the potential applicability of our optimization method.

Contemporary Epidemiological Surveillance (ES) relies heavily on data analytics. These analytics are critical input for pandemics preparedness networks; however, this input is not integrated into a form suitable for decision makers or experts in preparedness. A decision support system (DSS) with Computational Intelligence (CI) tools is required to bridge the gap between epidemiological model of evidence and expert group decision. We argue that such DSS shall be a cognitive dynamic system enabling the CI and human expert to work together. The core of such DSS must be based on machine reasoning techniques such as probabilistic inference, and shall be capable of estimating risks, reliability and biases in decision making.

In data streams, the data distribution of arriving observations at different time points may change - a phenomenon called concept drift. While detecting concept drift is a relatively mature area of study, solutions to the uncertainty introduced by observations with missing values have only been studied in isolation. No one has yet explored whether or how these solutions might impact drift detection performance. We, however, believe that data imputation methods may actually increase uncertainty in the data rather than reducing it. We also conjecture that imputation can introduce bias into the process of estimating distribution changes during drift detection, which can make it more difficult to train a learning model. Our idea is to focus on estimating the distance between observations rather than estimating the missing values, and to define membership functions that allocate observations to histogram bins according to the estimation errors. Our solution comprises a novel masked distance learning (MDL) algorithm to reduce the cumulative errors caused by iteratively estimating each missing value in an observation and a fuzzy-weighted frequency (FWF) method for identifying discrepancies in the data distribution. The concept drift detection algorithm proposed in this paper is a singular and unified algorithm that can handle missing values, but not an imputation algorithm combined with a concept drift detection algorithm. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the advantages of this method and show its robustness in detecting drift in data with missing values. These findings reveal that missing values exert a profound impact on concept drift detection, but using fuzzy set theory to model observations can produce more reliable results than imputation.