Supply and demand are two fundamental concepts of sellers and customers. Predicting demand accurately is critical for organizations in order to be able to make plans. In this paper, we propose a new approach for demand prediction on an e-commerce web site. The proposed model differs from earlier models in several ways. The business model used in the e-commerce web site, for which the model is implemented, includes many sellers that sell the same product at the same time at different prices where the company operates a market place model. The demand prediction for such a model should consider the price of the same product sold by competing sellers along the features of these sellers. In this study we first applied different regression algorithms for specific set of products of one department of a company that is one of the most popular online e-commerce companies in Turkey. Then we used stacked generalization or also known as stacking ensemble learning to predict demand. Finally, all the approaches are evaluated on a real world data set obtained from the e-commerce company. The experimental results show that some of the machine learning methods do produce almost as good results as the stacked generalization method.

Artificial intelligence (AI) literacy is a rapidly growing research area and a critical addition to K-12 education. However, support for designing tools and curriculum to teach K-12 AI literacy is still limited. There is a need for additional interdisciplinary human-computer interaction and education research investigating (1) how general AI literacy is currently implemented in learning experiences and (2) what additional guidelines are required to teach AI literacy in specifically K-12 learning contexts. In this paper, we analyze a collection of K-12 AI and education literature to show how core competencies of AI literacy are applied successfully and organize them into an educator-friendly chart to enable educators to efficiently find appropriate resources for their classrooms. We also identify future opportunities and K-12 specific design guidelines, which we synthesized into a conceptual framework to support researchers, designers, and educators in creating K-12 AI learning experiences.

The TREC Video Retrieval Evaluation (TRECVID) 2019 was a TREC-style video analysis and retrieval evaluation, the goal of which remains to promote progress in research and development of content-based exploitation and retrieval of information from digital video via open, metrics-based evaluation. Over the last nineteen years this effort has yielded a better understanding of how systems can effectively accomplish such processing and how one can reliably benchmark their performance. TRECVID has been funded by NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other US government agencies. In addition, many organizations and individuals worldwide contribute significant time and effort. TRECVID 2019 represented a continuation of four tasks from TRECVID 2018. In total, 27 teams from various research organizations worldwide completed one or more of the following four tasks: 1. Ad-hoc Video Search (AVS) 2. Instance Search (INS) 3. Activities in Extended Video (ActEV) 4. Video to Text Description (VTT) This paper is an introduction to the evaluation framework, tasks, data, and measures used in the workshop.

Good training data is a prerequisite to develop useful ML applications. However, in many domains existing data sets cannot be shared due to privacy regulations (e.g., from medical studies). This work investigates a simple yet unconventional approach for anonymized data synthesis to enable third parties to benefit from such private data. We explore the feasibility of learning implicitly from unrealistic, task-relevant stimuli, which are synthesized by exciting the neurons of a trained deep neural network (DNN). As such, neuronal excitation serves as a pseudo-generative model. The stimuli data is used to train new classification models. Furthermore, we extend this framework to inhibit representations that are associated with specific individuals. We use sleep monitoring data from both an open and a large closed clinical study and evaluate whether (1) end-users can create and successfully use customized classification models for sleep apnea detection, and (2) the identity of participants in the study is protected. Extensive comparative empirical investigation shows that different algorithms trained on the stimuli are able generalize successfully on the same task as the original model. However, architectural and algorithmic similarity between new and original models play an important role in performance. For similar architectures, the performance is close to that of using the true data (e.g., Accuracy difference of 0.56\%, Kappa coefficient difference of 0.03-0.04). Further experiments show that the stimuli can to a large extent successfully anonymize participants of the clinical studies.

As neural networks make their way into safety-critical systems, where misbehavior can lead to catastrophes, there is a growing interest in certifying the equivalence of two structurally similar neural networks. For example, compression techniques are often used in practice for deploying trained neural networks on computationally- and energy-constrained devices, which raises the question of how faithfully the compressed network mimics the original network. Unfortunately, existing methods either focus on verifying a single network or rely on loose approximations to prove the equivalence of two networks. Due to overly conservative approximation, differential verification lacks scalability in terms of both accuracy and computational cost. To overcome these problems, we propose NeuroDiff, a symbolic and fine-grained approximation technique that drastically increases the accuracy of differential verification while achieving many orders-of-magnitude speedup. NeuroDiff has two key contributions. The first one is new convex approximations that more accurately bound the difference neurons of two networks under all possible inputs. The second one is judicious use of symbolic variables to represent neurons whose difference bounds have accumulated significant error. We also find that these two techniques are complementary, i.e., when combined, the benefit is greater than the sum of their individual benefits. We have evaluated NeuroDiff on a variety of differential verification tasks. Our results show that NeuroDiff is up to 1000X faster and 5X more accurate than the state-of-the-art tool.

Purpose: The goal of this research was to develop a deep network architecture that achieves fully-automated radiologist-level segmentation of breast tumors in MRI. Materials and Methods: We leveraged 38,229 clinical MRI breast exams collected retrospectively from women aged 12-94 (mean age 54) who presented between 2002 and 2014 at a single clinical site. The training set for the network consisted of 2,555 malignant breasts that were segmented in 2D by experienced radiologists, as well as 60,108 benign breasts that served as negative controls. The test set consisted of 250 exams with tumors segmented independently by four radiologists. We selected among several 3D deep convolutional neural network architectures, input modalities and harmonization methods. The outcome measure was the Dice score for 2D segmentation, and was compared between the network and radiologists using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and the TOST procedure. Results: The best-performing network on the training set was a volumetric U-Net with contrast enhancement dynamic as input and with intensity normalized for each exam. In the test set the median Dice score of this network was 0.77. The performance of the network was equivalent to that of the radiologists (TOST procedure with radiologist performance of 0.69-0.84 as equivalence bounds: p = 5e-10 and p = 2e-5, respectively; N = 250) and compares favorably with published state of the art (0.6-0.77). Conclusion: When trained on a dataset of over 60 thousand breasts, a volumetric U-Net performs as well as expert radiologists at segmenting malignant breast lesions in MRI.

Data stream mining extracts information from large quantities of data flowing fast and continuously (data streams). They are usually affected by changes in the data distribution, giving rise to a phenomenon referred to as concept drift. Thus, learning models must detect and adapt to such changes, so as to exhibit a good predictive performance after a drift has occurred. In this regard, the development of effective drift detection algorithms becomes a key factor in data stream mining. In this work we propose CU RIE, a drift detector relying on cellular automata. Specifically, in CU RIE the distribution of the data stream is represented in the grid of a cellular automata, whose neighborhood rule can then be utilized to detect possible distribution changes over the stream. Computer simulations are presented and discussed to show that CU RIE, when hybridized with other base learners, renders a competitive behavior in terms of detection metrics and classification accuracy. CU RIE is compared with well-established drift detectors over synthetic datasets with varying drift characteristics.

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or trajectories, run in parallel. These systems are associated with a high computational cost and often involve statistical post-processing steps to inexpensively improve their raw prediction qualities. We propose a mixed model that uses only a subset of the original weather trajectories combined with a post-processing step using deep neural networks. These enable the model to account for non-linear relationships that are not captured by current numerical models or post-processing methods. Applied to global data, our mixed models achieve a relative improvement in ensemble forecast skill (CRPS) of over 14%. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the improvement is larger for extreme weather events on select case studies. We also show that our post-processing can use fewer trajectories to achieve comparable results to the full ensemble. By using fewer trajectories, the computational costs of an ensemble prediction system can be reduced, allowing it to run at higher resolution and produce more accurate forecasts.

Most reinforcement learning methods are based upon the key assumption that the transition dynamics and reward functions are fixed, that is, the underlying Markov decision process is stationary. However, in many real-world applications, this assumption is violated, and using existing algorithms may result in a performance lag. To proactively search for a good future policy, we present a policy gradient algorithm that maximizes a forecast of future performance. This forecast is obtained by fitting a curve to the counter-factual estimates of policy performance over time, without explicitly modeling the underlying non-stationarity. The resulting algorithm amounts to a non-uniform reweighting of past data, and we observe that minimizing performance over some of the data from past episodes can be beneficial when searching for a policy that maximizes future performance. We show that our algorithm, called Prognosticator, is more robust to non-stationarity than two online adaptation techniques, on three simulated problems motivated by real-world applications.

The number of blockchain users has tremendously grown in recent years. As an unintended consequence, e-crime transactions on blockchains has been on the rise. Consequently, public blockchains have become a hotbed of research for developing AI tools to detect and trace users and transactions that are related to e-crime. We argue that following a few select strategies can make money laundering on blockchain virtually undetectable with most of the existing tools and algorithms. As a result, the effective combating of e-crime activities involving cryptocurrencies requires the development of novel analytic methodology in AI.