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Heteroscedastic Bayesian Optimisation for Stochastic Model Predictive Control

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Model predictive control (MPC) has been successful in applications involving the control of complex physical systems. This class of controllers leverages the information provided by an approximate model of the system's dynamics to simulate the effect of control actions. MPC methods also present a few hyper-parameters which may require a relatively expensive tuning process by demanding interactions with the physical system. Therefore, we investigate fine-tuning MPC methods in the context of stochastic MPC, which presents extra challenges due to the randomness of the controller's actions. In these scenarios, performance outcomes present noise, which is not homogeneous across the domain of possible hyper-parameter settings, but which varies in an input-dependent way. To address these issues, we propose a Bayesian optimisation framework that accounts for heteroscedastic noise to tune hyper-parameters in control problems. Empirical results on benchmark continuous control tasks and a physical robot support the proposed framework's suitability relative to baselines, which do not take heteroscedasticity into account.


Towards Understanding Sample Variance in Visually Grounded Language Generation: Evaluations and Observations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A major challenge in visually grounded language generation is to build robust benchmark datasets and models that can generalize well in real-world settings. To do this, it is critical to ensure that our evaluation protocols are correct, and benchmarks are reliable. In this work, we set forth to design a set of experiments to understand an important but often ignored problem in visually grounded language generation: given that humans have different utilities and visual attention, how will the sample variance in multi-reference datasets affect the models' performance? Empirically, we study several multi-reference datasets and corresponding vision-and-language tasks. We show that it is of paramount importance to report variance in experiments; that human-generated references could vary drastically in different datasets/tasks, revealing the nature of each task; that metric-wise, CIDEr has shown systematically larger variances than others. Our evaluations on reference-per-instance shed light on the design of reliable datasets in the future.


Ensembling geophysical models with Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Ensembles of geophysical models improve prediction accuracy and express uncertainties. We develop a novel data-driven ensembling strategy for combining geophysical models using Bayesian Neural Networks, which infers spatiotemporally varying model weights and bias, while accounting for heteroscedastic uncertainties in the observations. This produces more accurate and uncertaintyaware predictions without sacrificing interpretability. Applied to the prediction of total column ozone from an ensemble of 15 chemistry-climate models, we find that the Bayesian neural network ensemble (BayNNE) outperforms existing methods for ensembling physical models, achieving a 49.4% reduction in RMSE for temporal extrapolation, and a 67.4% reduction in RMSE for polar data voids, compared to a weighted mean. Uncertainty is also well-characterized, with 91.9% of the data points in our extrapolation validation dataset lying within 2 standard deviations and 98.9% within 3 standard deviations.


Equivariant Normalizing Flows for Point Processes and Sets

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A point process describes how random sets of exchangeable points are generated. The points usually influence the positions of each other via attractive and repulsive forces. To model this behavior, it is enough to transform the samples from the uniform process with a sufficiently complex equivariant function. However, learning the parameters of the resulting process is challenging since the likelihood is hard to estimate and often intractable. This leads us to our proposed model - CONFET. Based on continuous normalizing flows, it allows arbitrary interactions between points while having tractable likelihood. Experiments on various real and synthetic datasets show the improved performance of our new scalable approach.


PDE-Driven Spatiotemporal Disentanglement

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A recent line of work in the machine learning community addresses the problem of predicting high-dimensional spatiotemporal phenomena by leveraging specific tools from the differential equations theory. Following this direction, we propose in this article a novel and general paradigm for this task based on a resolution method for partial differential equations: the separation of variables. This inspiration allows us to introduce a dynamical interpretation of spatiotemporal disentanglement. It induces a principled model based on learning disentangled spatial and temporal representations of a phenomenon to accurately predict future observations. We experimentally demonstrate the performance and broad applicability of our method against prior state-of-the-art models on physical and synthetic video datasets. The interest of the machine learning community in physical phenomena has substantially grown for the last few years (Shi et al., 2015; Long et al., 2018; Greydanus et al., 2019). In particular, an increasing amount of works studies the challenging problem of modeling the evolution of dynamical systems, with applications in sensible domains like climate or health science, making the understanding of physical phenomena a key challenge in machine learning. To this end, the community has successfully leveraged the formalism of dynamical systems and their associated differential formulation as powerful tools to specifically design efficient prediction models. In this work, we aim at studying this prediction problem with a principled and general approach, through the prism of Partial Differential Equations (PDEs), with a focus on learning spatiotemporal disentangled representations. Prediction via spatiotemporal disentanglement was first studied in video prediction works, in order to separate static and dynamic information (Denton & Birodkar, 2017) for prediction and interpretability purposes. Existing models are particularly complex, involving either adversarial losses or variational inference.


Bayesian Additive Regression Trees with Model Trees

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Noname manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) 1 Introduction is a tree-based machine learning method that has been successfully applied to regression and classification problems. Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) is a statistical BART assumes regularisation priors on a set of method proposed by Chipman et al (2010) that has trees that work as weak learners and is very flexible for become popular in recent years due to its competitive predicting in the presence of non-linearity and highorder performance on regression and classification problems, interactions. In this paper, we introduce an extension when compared to other supervised machine learning of BART, called Model Trees BART (MOTR-methods, such as Random Forests (RF) (Breiman, 2001) BART), that considers piecewise linear functions at node and Gradient Boosting (GB) (Friedman, 2001). In MOTR-BART, differs from other tree-based methods as it controls the rather than having a unique value at node level for the structure of each tree via a prior distribution and generates prediction, a linear predictor is estimated considering the predictions via an MCMC backfitting algorithm the covariates that have been used as the split variables that is responsible for accepting and rejecting the in the corresponding tree. In our approach, local linearities proposed trees along the iterations.


Self-Supervised Learning Aided Class-Incremental Lifelong Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Lifelong or continual learning remains to be a challenge for artificial neural network, as it is required to be both stable for preservation of old knowledge and plastic for acquisition of new knowledge. It is common to see previous experience get overwritten, which leads to the well-known issue of catastrophic forgetting, especially in the scenario of class-incremental learning (Class-IL). Recently, many lifelong learning methods have been proposed to avoid catastrophic forgetting. However, models which learn without replay of the input data, would encounter another problem which has been ignored, and we refer to it as prior information loss (PIL). In training procedure of Class-IL, as the model has no knowledge about following tasks, it would only extract features necessary for tasks learned so far, whose information is insufficient for joint classification. In this paper, our empirical results on several image datasets show that PIL limits the performance of current state-of-the-art method for Class-IL, the orthogonal weights modification (OWM) algorithm. Furthermore, we propose to combine self-supervised learning, which can provide effective representations without requiring labels, with Class-IL to partly get around this problem. Experiments show superiority of proposed method to OWM, as well as other strong baselines.


Don't Parse, Insert: Multilingual Semantic Parsing with Insertion Based Decoding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Semantic parsing is one of the key components of natural language understanding systems. A successful parse transforms an input utterance to an action that is easily understood by the system. Many algorithms have been proposed to solve this problem, from conventional rulebased or statistical slot-filling systems to shiftreduce based neural parsers. For complex parsing tasks, the state-of-the-art method is based on autoregressive sequence to sequence models to generate the parse directly. This model is slow at inference time, generating parses in O(n) decoding steps (n is the length of the target sequence). In addition, we demonstrate that this method performs poorly in zero-shot cross-lingual transfer learning settings. In this paper, we propose a non-autoregressive parser which is based on the insertion transformer to overcome these two issues. Our approach 1) speeds up decoding by 3x while outperforming the autoregressive model and 2) significantly improves cross-lingual transfer in the low-resource setting by 37% compared to autoregressive baseline. We test our approach on three well-known monolingual datasets: ATIS, SNIPS and TOP. For cross lingual semantic parsing, we use the MultiATIS++ and the multilingual TOP datasets.


Adaptive Self-training for Few-shot Neural Sequence Labeling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neural sequence labeling is an important technique employed for many Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks, such as Named Entity Recognition (NER), slot tagging for dialog systems and semantic parsing. Large-scale pre-trained language models obtain very good performance on these tasks when fine-tuned on large amounts of task-specific labeled data. However, such large-scale labeled datasets are difficult to obtain for several tasks and domains due to the high cost of human annotation as well as privacy and data access constraints for sensitive user applications. This is exacerbated for sequence labeling tasks requiring such annotations at token-level. In this work, we develop techniques to address the label scarcity challenge for neural sequence labeling models. Specifically, we develop self-training and meta-learning techniques for few-shot training of neural sequence taggers, namely MetaST. While self-training serves as an effective mechanism to learn from large amounts of unlabeled data -- meta-learning helps in adaptive sample re-weighting to mitigate error propagation from noisy pseudo-labels. Extensive experiments on six benchmark datasets including two massive multilingual NER datasets and four slot tagging datasets for task-oriented dialog systems demonstrate the effectiveness of our method with around 10% improvement over state-of-the-art systems for the 10-shot setting.


Abductive Knowledge Induction From Raw Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

For many reasoning-heavy tasks, it is challenging to find an appropriate end-to-end differentiable approximation to domain-specific inference mechanisms. Neural-Symbolic (NeSy) AI divides the end-to-end pipeline into neural perception and symbolic reasoning, which can directly exploit general domain knowledge such as algorithms and logic rules. However, it suffers from the exponential computational complexity caused by the interface between the two components, where the neural model lacks direct supervision, and the symbolic model lacks accurate input facts. As a result, they usually focus on learning the neural model with a sound and complete symbolic knowledge base while avoiding a crucial problem: where does the knowledge come from? In this paper, we present Abductive Meta-Interpretive Learning ($Meta_{Abd}$), which unites abduction and induction to learn perceptual neural network and first-order logic theories simultaneously from raw data. Given the same amount of domain knowledge, we demonstrate that $Meta_{Abd}$ not only outperforms the compared end-to-end models in predictive accuracy and data efficiency but also induces logic programs that can be re-used as background knowledge in subsequent learning tasks. To the best of our knowledge, $Meta_{Abd}$ is the first system that can jointly learn neural networks and recursive first-order logic theories with predicate invention.