The theory of Local Intrinsic Dimensionality (LID) has become a valuable tool for characterizing local complexity within and across data manifolds, supporting a range of data mining and machine learning tasks. Accurate LID estimation requires samples drawn from small neighborhoods around each query to avoid biases from nonlocal effects and potential manifold mixing, yet limited data within such neighborhoods tends to cause high estimation variance. As a variance reduction strategy, we propose an ensemble approach that uses subbagging to preserve the local distribution of nearest neighbor (NN) distances. The main challenge is that the uniform reduction in total sample size within each subsample increases the proximity threshold for finding a fixed number k of NNs around the query. As a result, in the specific context of LID estimation, the sampling rate has an additional, complex interplay with the neighborhood size, where both combined determine the sample size as well as the locality and resolution considered for estimation. We analyze both theoretically and experimentally how the choice of the sampling rate and the k-NN size used for LID estimation, alongside the ensemble size, affects performance, enabling informed prior selection of these hyper-parameters depending on application-based preferences. Our results indicate that within broad and well-characterized regions of the hyper-parameters space, using a bagged estimator will most often significantly reduce variance as well as the mean squared error when compared to the corresponding non-bagged baseline, with controllable impact on bias. We additionally propose and evaluate different ways of combining bagging with neighborhood smoothing for substantial further improvements on LID estimation performance.

We propose stepwise variational inference (VI) with vine copulas: a universal VI procedure that combines vine copulas with a novel stepwise estimation procedure of the variational parameters. Vine copulas consist of a nested sequence of trees built from copulas, where more complex latent dependence can be modeled with increasing number of trees. We propose to estimate the vine copula approximate posterior in a stepwise fashion, tree by tree along the vine structure. Further, we show that the usual backward Kullback-Leibler divergence cannot recover the correct parameters in the vine copula model, thus the evidence lower bound is defined based on the Rényi divergence. Finally, an intuitive stopping criterion for adding further trees to the vine eliminates the need to pre-define a complexity parameter of the variational distribution, as required for most other approaches. Thus, our method interpolates between mean-field VI (MFVI) and full latent dependence. In many applications, in particular sparse Gaussian processes, our method is parsimonious with parameters, while outperforming MFVI.

Tech firm'says goodbye' to Sora, made publicly available in 2024, just six months after its launch of a stand-alone app In an abrupt announcement on Tuesday, OpenAI said it was "saying goodbye" to its AI video generator Sora. The move comes just six months after the company's splashy launch of a stand-alone app with which people could make and share hyper-realistic AI videos in a scrolling social feed. "To everyone who created with Sora, shared it, and built community around it: thank you," the company wrote in a post on X . "What you made with Sora mattered, and we know this news is disappointing." OpenAI first made Sora publicly available in late 2024, but it wasn't until the company launched Sora 2 and its stand-alone app last September that the video generator reached mainstream attention.

Panel data methods are widely used in empirical analysis to address unobserved heterogeneity, but causal inference remains challenging when treatments are endogenous and confounding variables high-dimensional and potentially nonlinear. Standard instrumental variables (IV) estimators, such as two-stage least squares (2SLS), become unreliable when instrument validity requires flexibly conditioning on many covariates with potentially non-linear effects. This paper develops a Double Machine Learning estimator for static panel models with endogenous treatments (panel IV DML), and introduces weak-identification diagnostics for it. We revisit three influential migration studies that use shift-share instruments. In these settings, instrument validity depends on a rich covariate adjustment. In one application, panel IV DML strengthens the predictive power of the instrument and broadly confirms 2SLS results. In the other cases, flexible adjustment makes the instruments weak, leading to substantially more cautious causal inference than conventional 2SLS. Monte Carlo evidence supports these findings, showing that panel IV DML improves estimation accuracy under strong instruments and delivers more reliable inference under weak identification.

Probabilistic circuit (PC) structure learning is hampered by greedy algorithms that make irreversible, locally optimal decisions. We propose SymCircuit, which replaces greedy search with a learned generative policy trained via entropy-regularized reinforcement learning. Instantiating the RL-as-inference framework in the PC domain, we show the optimal policy is a tempered Bayesian posterior, recovering the exact posterior when the regularization temperature is set inversely proportional to the dataset size. The policy is implemented as SymFormer, a grammar-constrained autoregressive Transformer with tree-relative self-attention that guarantees valid circuits at every generation step. We introduce option-level REINFORCE, restricting gradient updates to structural decisions rather than all tokens, yielding an SNR (signal to noise ratio) improvement and >10 times sample efficiency gain on the NLTCS dataset. A three-layer uncertainty decomposition (structural via model averaging, parametric via the delta method, leaf via conjugate Dirichlet-Categorical propagation) is grounded in the multilinear polynomial structure of PC outputs. On NLTCS, SymCircuit closes 93% of the gap to LearnSPN; preliminary results on Plants (69 variables) suggest scalability.

Time-dependent reliability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems under stochastic excitations is a critical yet computationally demanding task. Conventional approaches, such as Monte Carlo simulation, necessitate repeated evaluations of computationally expensive numerical solvers, leading to significant computational bottlenecks. To address this challenge, we propose \textit{CoNBONet}, a neuroscience-inspired surrogate model that enables fast, energy-efficient, and uncertainty-aware reliability analysis, providing a scalable alternative to techniques such as Monte Carlo simulations. CoNBONet, short for \textbf{Co}nformalized \textbf{N}euroscience-inspired \textbf{B}ayesian \textbf{O}perator \textbf{Net}work, leverages the expressive power of deep operator networks while integrating neuroscience-inspired neuron models to achieve fast, low-power inference. Unlike traditional surrogates such as Gaussian processes, polynomial chaos expansions, or support vector regression, that may face scalability challenges for high-dimensional, time-dependent reliability problems, CoNBONet offers \textit{fast and energy-efficient inference} enabled by a neuroscience-inspired network architecture, \textit{calibrated uncertainty quantification with theoretical guarantees} via split conformal prediction, and \textit{strong generalization capability} through an operator-learning paradigm that maps input functions to system response trajectories. Validation of the proposed CoNBONet for various nonlinear dynamical systems demonstrates that CoNBONet preserves predictive fidelity, and achieves reliable coverage of failure probabilities, making it a powerful tool for robust and scalable reliability analysis in engineering design.

Services such as Google TV and Amazon's Fire TV have recommendation systems, as well as search functions, that may prioritise some content over others. Services such as Google TV and Amazon's Fire TV have recommendation systems, as well as search functions, that may prioritise some content over others. World's broadcasters urge EU to tighten rules for big tech in smart TV battle The world's largest broadcasters have pushed for the EU to enforce its toughest regulations against virtual TVs and smart assistants built by Google, Amazon, Apple and Samsung . The call came in a letter from the Association of Commercial Television and Video on Demand Services in Europe (ACT), whose members include Canal+, RTL, Mediaset, ITV, Paramount+, NBCUniversal, Walt Disney, Warner Bros Discovery, Sky and TF1 Groupe. The letter argues that big tech companies have growing control over the operating systems of smart TVs and voice assistants, allowing them to act as "gatekeepers" funnelling users towards some content and away from others.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/

In its early days, the AI initiative known as Project Maven had its fair share of skeptics at the Pentagon. Today, many of them are true believers. The rise of AI warfare speaks to the biggest moral and practical question there is: Who--or what--gets to decide to take a human life? And who bears that cost? In 2018, more than 3,000 Google workers protested the company's involvement in "the business of war" after finding out the company was part of Project Maven, then a nascent Pentagon effort to use computer vision to rifle through copious video footage taken in America's overseas drone wars. They feared Project Maven's AI could one day be used for lethal targeting. In my yearslong effort to uncover the full story of Project Maven for my book,, I learned that is exactly what happened, and that the undertaking was just as controversial inside the Pentagon. Today, the tool known as Maven Smart System is being used in US operations against Iran . How the US military's top brass moved from skepticism about the use of AI in war to true believers has a lot to do with a Marine colonel named Drew Cukor. In early September 2024, during the cocktail hour at a private retreat for tech investors and defense leaders, Vice Admiral Frank "Trey" Whitworth found his way to Drew Cukor. Now Project Maven's founding leader and his skeptical successor were standing face-to-face. Three years earlier, Whitworth had been the Pentagon's top military official for intelligence, advising the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and running one of the most sensitive and potentially lethal parts of any military process: targeting.

Neural Information Processing Systems http://nips.cc/