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WRSE -- a non-parametric weighted-resolution ensemble for predicting individual survival distributions in the ICU

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Dynamic assessment of mortality risk in the intensive care unit (ICU) can be used to stratify patients, inform about treatment effectiveness or serve as part of an early-warning system. Static risk scoring systems, such as APACHE or SAPS, have recently been supplemented with data-driven approaches that track the dynamic mortality risk over time. Recent works have focused on enhancing the information delivered to clinicians even further by producing full survival distributions instead of point predictions or fixed horizon risks. In this work, we propose a non-parametric ensemble model, Weighted Resolution Survival Ensemble (WRSE), tailored to estimate such dynamic individual survival distributions. Inspired by the simplicity and robustness of ensemble methods, the proposed approach combines a set of binary classifiers spaced according to a decay function reflecting the relevance of short-term mortality predictions. Models and baselines are evaluated under weighted calibration and discrimination metrics for individual survival distributions which closely reflect the utility of a model in ICU practice. We show competitive results with state-of-the-art probabilistic models, while greatly reducing training time by factors of 2-9x.


Guided Navigation from Multiple Viewpoints using Qualitative Spatial Reasoning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Navigation is an essential ability for mobile agents to be completely autonomous and able to perform complex actions. However, the problem of navigation for agents with limited (or no) perception of the world, or devoid of a fully defined motion model, has received little attention from research in AI and Robotics. One way to tackle this problem is to use guided navigation, in which other autonomous agents, endowed with perception, can combine their distinct viewpoints to infer the localisation and the appropriate commands to guide a sensory deprived agent through a particular path. Due to the limited knowledge about the physical and perceptual characteristics of the guided agent, this task should be conducted on a level of abstraction allowing the use of a generic motion model, and high-level commands, that can be applied by any type of autonomous agents, including humans. The main task considered in this work is, given a group of autonomous agents perceiving their common environment with their independent, egocentric and local vision sensors, the development and evaluation of algorithms capable of producing a set of high-level commands (involving qualitative directions: e.g. move left, go straight ahead) capable of guiding a sensory deprived robot to a goal location.


RandomForestMLP: An Ensemble-Based Multi-Layer Perceptron Against Curse of Dimensionality

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a novel and practical deep learning pipeline termed RandomForestMLP. This core trainable classification engine consists of a convolutional neural network backbone followed by an ensemble-based multi-layer perceptrons core for the classification task. It is designed in the context of self and semi-supervised learning tasks to avoid overfitting while training on very small datasets. The paper details the architecture of the RandomForestMLP and present different strategies for neural network decision aggregation. Then, it assesses its robustness to overfitting when trained on realistic image datasets and compares its classification performance with existing regular classifiers.


Reinforcement Learning with Efficient Active Feature Acquisition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solving real-life sequential decision making problems under partial observability involves an exploration-exploitation problem. To be successful, an agent needs to efficiently gather valuable information about the state of the world for making rewarding decisions. However, in real-life, acquiring valuable information is often highly costly, e.g., in the medical domain, information acquisition might correspond to performing a medical test on a patient. This poses a significant challenge for the agent to perform optimally for the task while reducing the cost for information acquisition. In this paper, we propose a model-based reinforcement learning framework that learns an active feature acquisition policy to solve the exploration-exploitation problem during its execution. Key to the success is a novel sequential variational auto-encoder that learns high-quality representations from partially observed states, which are then used by the policy to maximize the task reward in a cost efficient manner. We demonstrate the efficacy of our proposed framework in a control domain as well as using a medical simulator. In both tasks, our proposed method outperforms conventional baselines and results in policies with greater cost efficiency.


A Flexible Class of Dependence-aware Multi-Label Loss Functions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multi-label classification is the task of assigning a subset of labels to a given query instance. For evaluating such predictions, the set of predicted labels needs to be compared to the ground-truth label set associated with that instance, and various loss functions have been proposed for this purpose. In addition to assessing predictive accuracy, a key concern in this regard is to foster and to analyze a learner's ability to capture label dependencies. In this paper, we introduce a new class of loss functions for multi-label classification, which overcome disadvantages of commonly used losses such as Hamming and subset 0/1. To this end, we leverage the mathematical framework of non-additive measures and integrals. Roughly speaking, a non-additive measure allows for modeling the importance of correct predictions of label subsets (instead of single labels), and thereby their impact on the overall evaluation, in a flexible way - by giving full importance to single labels and the entire label set, respectively, Hamming and subset 0/1 are rather extreme in this regard. We present concrete instantiations of this class, which comprise Hamming and subset 0/1 as special cases, and which appear to be especially appealing from a modeling perspective. The assessment of multi-label classifiers in terms of these losses is illustrated in an empirical study.


Searching k-Optimal Goals for an Orienteering Problem on a Specialized Graph with Budget Constraints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel non-randomized anytime orienteering algorithm for finding k-optimal goals that maximize reward on a specialized graph with budget constraints. This specialized graph represents a real-world scenario which is analogous to an orienteering problem of finding k-most optimal goal states.


A Curious New Result of Resolution Strategies in Negation-Limited Inverters Problem

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Generally, negation-limited inverters problem is known as a puzzle of constructing an inverter with AND gates and OR gates and a few inverters. In this paper, we introduce a curious new result about the effectiveness of two powerful ATP (Automated Theorem Proving) strategies on tackling negation limited inverter problem. Two resolution strategies are UR (Unit Resulting) resolution and hyper-resolution. In experiment, we come two kinds of automated circuit construction: 3 input/output inverters and 4 input/output BCD Counter Circuit. Both circuits are constructed with a few limited inverters. Curiously, it has been turned out that UR resolution is drastically faster than hyper-resolution in the measurement of the size of SOS (Set of Support). Besides, we discuss the syntactic and semantic criteria which might causes considerable difference of computation cost between UR resolution and hyper-resolution.


AI Marker-based Large-scale AI Literature Mining

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The knowledge contained in academic literature is interesting to mine. Inspired by the idea of molecular markers tracing in the field of biochemistry, three named entities, namely, methods, datasets and metrics are used as AI markers for AI literature. These entities can be used to trace the research process described in the bodies of papers, which opens up new perspectives for seeking and mining more valuable academic information. Firstly, the entity extraction model is used in this study to extract AI markers from large-scale AI literature. Secondly, original papers are traced for AI markers. Statistical and propagation analysis are performed based on tracing results. Finally, the co-occurrences of AI markers are used to achieve clustering. The evolution within method clusters and the influencing relationships amongst different research scene clusters are explored. The above-mentioned mining based on AI markers yields many meaningful discoveries. For example, the propagation of effective methods on the datasets is rapidly increasing with the development of time; effective methods proposed by China in recent years have increasing influence on other countries, whilst France is the opposite. Saliency detection, a classic computer vision research scene, is the least likely to be affected by other research scenes.


Leveraging Extracted Model Adversaries for Improved Black Box Attacks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present a method for adversarial input generation against black box models for reading comprehension based question answering. Our approach is composed of two steps. First, we approximate a victim black box model via model extraction (Krishna et al., 2020). Second, we use our own white box method to generate input perturbations that cause the approximate model to fail. These perturbed inputs are used against the victim. In experiments we find that our method improves on the efficacy of the AddAny---a white box attack---performed on the approximate model by 25% F1, and the AddSent attack---a black box attack---by 11% F1 (Jia and Liang, 2017).


'The First Day Is the Worst Day': DHL's Gina Chung on How AI Improves Over Time

#artificialintelligence

As vice president of innovation at logistics company DHL, Gina Chung oversees a 28,000-square-foot innovation facility in Chicago. Fascinated with supply chains since college ("I think it's something to do with the fact that I'm from New Zealand and grew up in a pretty isolated part of the world," she explains), she spearheads AI and robotics projects focused on front-line operations -- like automated pallet inspection and stacking, delivery route optimization, and aircraft utilization. Your reviews are essential to the success of Me, Myself, and AI. For a limited time, we're offering a free download of MIT SMR's best articles on artificial intelligence to listeners who review the show. Send your review screenshot to smrfeedback@mit.edu to receive the download. Gina Chung is vice president, Innovation Americas, at DHL, where she is responsible for DHL's Americas Innovation Center, a purpose-built platform to engage customers, startups, and industries on the future of logistics. She manages a portfolio of projects focused on the rapid testing and adoption of technologies such as collaborative robotics and artificial intelligence across logistics operations. Gina notes that "the first day for AI is the worst day": The technology improves with human input over time, achieving accuracy to a level where people trust and embrace it. She describes how success requires closely collaborating with key stakeholders, integrating change management, bringing teams along when introducing new technology, and designing solutions with the end user in mind.