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COVID-19 Image Data Collection: Prospective Predictions Are the Future

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Across the world's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hot spots, the need to streamline patient diagnosis and management has become more pressing than ever. As one of the main imaging tools, chest X-rays (CXRs) are common, fast, non-invasive, relatively cheap, and potentially bedside to monitor the progression of the disease. This paper describes the first public COVID-19 image data collection as well as a preliminary exploration of possible use cases for the data. This dataset currently contains hundreds of frontal view X-rays and is the largest public resource for COVID-19 image and prognostic data, making it a necessary resource to develop and evaluate tools to aid in the treatment of COVID-19. It was manually aggregated from publication figures as well as various web based repositories into a machine learning (ML) friendly format with accompanying dataloader code. We collected frontal and lateral view imagery and metadata such as the time since first symptoms, intensive care unit (ICU) status, survival status, intubation status, or hospital location.


Towards Accurate Spatiotemporal COVID-19 Risk Scores using High Resolution Real-World Mobility Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

As countries look towards re-opening of economic activities amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring public health has been challenging. While contact tracing only aims to track past activities of infected users, one path to safe reopening is to develop reliable spatiotemporal risk scores to indicate the propensity of the disease. Existing works which aim to develop risk scores either rely on compartmental model-based reproduction numbers (which assume uniform population mixing) or develop coarse-grain spatial scores based on reproduction number (R0) and macro-level density-based mobility statistics. Instead, in this paper, we develop a Hawkes process-based technique to assign relatively fine-grain spatial and temporal risk scores by leveraging high-resolution mobility data based on cell-phone originated location signals. While COVID-19 risk scores also depend on a number of factors specific to an individual, including demography and existing medical conditions, the primary mode of disease transmission is via physical proximity and contact. Therefore, we focus on developing risk scores based on location density and mobility behaviour. We demonstrate the efficacy of the developed risk scores via simulation based on real-world mobility data. Our results show that fine-grain spatiotemporal risk scores based on high-resolution mobility data can provide useful insights and facilitate safe re-opening.


Exponential Lower Bounds for Batch Reinforcement Learning: Batch RL can be Exponentially Harder than Online RL

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Several practical applications of reinforcement learning involve an agent learning from past data without the possibility of further exploration. Often these applications require us to 1) identify a near optimal policy or to 2) estimate the value of a target policy. For both tasks we derive exponential information-theoretic lower bounds in discounted infinite horizon MDPs with a linear function representation for the action value function even if 1) realizability holds, 2) the batch algorithm observes the exact reward and transition functions, and 3) the batch algorithm is given the best a priori data distribution for the problem class. Furthermore, if the dataset does not come from policy rollouts then the lower bounds hold even if all policies admit a linear representation. If the objective is to find a near-optimal policy, we discover that these hard instances are easily solved by an online algorithm, showing that there exist RL problems where batch RL is exponentially harder than online RL even under the most favorable batch data distribution. In other words, online exploration is critical to enable sample efficient RL with function approximation. A second corollary is the exponential separation between finite and infinite horizon batch problems under our assumptions. On a technical level, this work helps formalize the issue known as deadly triad and explains that the bootstrapping problem is potentially more severe than the extrapolation issue for RL because unlike the latter, bootstrapping cannot be mitigated by adding more samples.


The Emerging Threats of Deepfake Attacks and Countermeasures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deepfake technology (DT) has taken a new level of sophistication. Cybercriminals now can manipulate sounds, images, and videos to defraud and misinform individuals and businesses. This represents a growing threat to international institutions and individuals which needs to be addressed. This paper provides an overview of deepfakes, their benefits to society, and how DT works. Highlights the threats that are presented by deepfakes to businesses, politics, and judicial systems worldwide. Additionally, the paper will explore potential solutions to deepfakes and conclude with future research direction.


A Framework for Efficient Robotic Manipulation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract-- Data-efficient learning of manipulation policies from visual observations is an outstanding challenge for realrobot learning. While deep reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms have shown success learning policies from visual observations, they still require an impractical number of real-world data samples to learn effective policies. However, recent advances in unsupervised representation learning and data augmentation significantly improved the sample efficiency of training RL policies on common simulated benchmarks. Building on these advances, we present a Framework for Efficient Robotic Manipulation (FERM) that utilizes data augmentation and unsupervised learning to achieve extremely sample-efficient training of robotic manipulation policies with sparse rewards. We show that, given only 10 demonstrations, a single robotic arm can learn sparse-reward manipulation policies from pixels, such as reaching, picking, moving, pulling a large object, flipping a switch, and opening a drawer in just 15-50 minutes of real-world training time.


A Memory-Augmented Neural Network Model of Abstract Rule Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Human intelligence is characterized by a remarkable ability to infer abstract rules from experience and apply these rules to novel domains. As such, designing neural network algorithms with this capacity is an important step toward the development of deep learning systems with more human-like intelligence. However, doing so is a major outstanding challenge, one that some argue will require neural networks to use explicit symbol-processing mechanisms. In this work, we focus on neural networks' capacity for arbitrary role-filler binding, the ability to associate abstract "roles" to context-specific "fillers," which many have argued is an important mechanism underlying the ability to learn and apply rules abstractly. Using a simplified version of Raven's Progressive Matrices, a hallmark test of human intelligence, we introduce a sequential formulation of a visual problem-solving task that requires this form of binding. Further, we introduce the Emergent Symbol Binding Network (ESBN), a recurrent neural network model that learns to use an external memory as a binding mechanism. This mechanism enables symbol-like variable representations to emerge through the ESBN's training process without the need for explicit symbol-processing machinery. We empirically demonstrate that the ESBN successfully learns the underlying abstract rule structure of our task and perfectly generalizes this rule structure to novel fillers.


Concept Drift and Covariate Shift Detection Ensemble with Lagged Labels

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In model serving, having one fixed model during the entire often life-long inference process is usually detrimental to model performance, as data distribution evolves over time, resulting in lack of reliability of the model trained on historical data. It is important to detect changes and retrain the model in time. The existing methods generally have three weaknesses: 1) using only classification error rate as signal, 2) assuming ground truth labels are immediately available after features from samples are received and 3) unable to decide what data to use to retrain the model when change occurs. We address the first problem by utilizing six different signals to capture a wide range of characteristics of data, and we address the second problem by allowing lag of labels, where labels of corresponding features are received after a lag in time. For the third problem, our proposed method automatically decides what data to use to retrain based on the signals. Extensive experiments on structured and unstructured data for different type of data changes establish that our method consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods by a large margin.


Using multiple ASR hypotheses to boost i18n NLU performance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current voice assistants typically use the best hypothesis yielded by their Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) module as input to their Natural Language Understanding (NLU) module, thereby losing helpful information that might be stored in lower-ranked ASR hypotheses. We explore the change in performance of NLU associated tasks when utilizing five-best ASR hypotheses when compared to status quo for two language datasets, German and Portuguese. To harvest information from the ASR five-best, we leverage extractive summarization and joint extractive-abstractive summarization models for Domain Classification (DC) experiments while using a sequence-to-sequence model with a pointer generator network for Intent Classification (IC) and Named Entity Recognition (NER) multi-task experiments. For the DC full test set, we observe significant improvements of up to 7.2% and 15.5% in micro-averaged F1 scores, for German and Portuguese, respectively. In cases where the best ASR hypothesis was not an exact match to the transcribed utterance (mismatched test set), we see improvements of up to 6.7% and 8.8% micro-averaged F1 scores, for German and Portuguese, respectively. For IC and NER multi-task experiments, when evaluating on the mismatched test set, we see improvements across all domains in German and in 17 out of 19 domains in Portuguese (improvements based on change in SeMER scores). Our results suggest that the use of multiple ASR hypotheses, as opposed to one, can lead to significant performance improvements in the DC task for these non-English datasets. In addition, it could lead to significant improvement in the performance of IC and NER tasks in cases where the ASR model makes mistakes.


Variational State and Parameter Estimation

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this work, a variational approach is used to provide an assumed density which approximates the desired, intractable, distribution. The approach is deterministic and results in an optimisation problem of a standard form. Due to the parametrisation of the assumed density selected first- and second-order derivatives are readily available which allows for efficient solutions. The proposed method is compared against state-of-the-art Hamiltonian Monte Carlo in two numerical examples.


Smarter traffic lights, calmer commuters

#artificialintelligence

How often have you cursed out a traffic light that took forever to change? Or the lights on a long stretch of road made you stop at every cross street, just when you felt you might actually make it to work on time? Take heart: Less painful commutes may be ahead, with advanced electronic control systems that apply artificial intelligence to the task of keeping traffic moving. The benefits promised are more than just tamping down some road rage. Less time stuck in traffic, multiplied by many thousands of commuters, can lead to less fuel burned and less carbon emitted.