Increased availability of epidemiological data, novel digital data streams, and the rise of powerful machine learning approaches have generated a surge of research activity on real-time epidemic forecast systems. In this paper, we propose the use of a novel data source, namely retail market data to improve seasonal influenza forecasting. Specifically, we consider supermarket retail data as a proxy signal for influenza, through the identification of sentinel baskets, i.e., products bought together by a population of selected customers. We develop a nowcasting and forecasting framework that provides estimates for influenza incidence in Italy up to 4 weeks ahead. We make use of the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model to produce the predictions of seasonal flu incidence. Our predictions outperform both a baseline autoregressive model and a second baseline based on product purchases. The results show quantitatively the value of incorporating retail market data in forecasting models, acting as a proxy that can be used for the real-time analysis of epidemics.

Level Set Estimation (LSE) is an important problem with applications in various fields such as material design, biotechnology, machine operational testing, etc. Existing techniques suffer from the scalability issue, that is, these methods do not work well with high dimensional inputs. This paper proposes novel methods to solve the high dimensional LSE problems using Bayesian Neural Networks. In particular, we consider two types of LSE problems: (1) \textit{explicit} LSE problem where the threshold level is a fixed user-specified value, and, (2) \textit{implicit} LSE problem where the threshold level is defined as a percentage of the (unknown) maximum of the objective function. For each problem, we derive the corresponding theoretic information based acquisition function to sample the data points so as to maximally increase the level set accuracy. Furthermore, we also analyse the theoretical time complexity of our proposed acquisition functions, and suggest a practical methodology to efficiently tune the network hyper-parameters to achieve high model accuracy. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our proposed method can achieve better results compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Continual learning (CL) aims to enable information systems to learn from a continuous data stream across time. However, it is difficult for existing deep learning architectures to learn a new task without largely forgetting previously acquired knowledge. Furthermore, CL is particularly challenging for language learning, as natural language is ambiguous: it is discrete, compositional, and its meaning is context-dependent. In this work, we look at the problem of CL through the lens of various NLP tasks. Our survey discusses major challenges in CL and current methods applied in neural network models. We also provide a critical review of the existing CL evaluation methods and datasets in NLP.

In the present paper we use a range of modeling techniques to investigate whether an abstract phone could emerge from exposure to speech sounds. We test two opposing principles regarding the development of language knowledge in linguistically untrained language users: Memory-Based Learning (MBL) and Error-Correction Learning (ECL). A process of generalization underlies the abstractions linguists operate with, and we probed whether MBL and ECL could give rise to a type of language knowledge that resembles linguistic abstractions. Each model was presented with a significant amount of pre-processed speech produced by one speaker. We assessed the consistency or stability of what the models have learned and their ability to give rise to abstract categories. Both types of models fare differently with regard to these tests. We show that ECL learning models can learn abstractions and that at least part of the phone inventory can be reliably identified from the input.

But there is no doubt that the pandemic has hastened the adoption of emerging digital technologies, ushered in a new era of remote and flexible working arrangements, increased organisations' reliance on digital infrastructure and exposed our tech-related strengths and weaknesses alike. Leaving 2020 in the rear-view mirror, we count down our top 10 predictions for 2021 and beyond in the domain of Digital Law in Australia. Despite an existing principles-based framework for the protection of privacy under the Privacy Act, in recent years the Federal Government has preferred to introduce parallel privacy requirements, such as the 13 Privacy Safeguards under the Consumer Data Right legislation and the privacy aspects of the upcoming Data Availability and Transparency Act for Government agencies. These nascent regimes are similar enough to the existing privacy regime to encourage complacency and different enough to give any compliance function a headache. Overlapping and often sectorial regulation adds to the increasing complexity of privacy law in Australia.

Back in 2018, Pinduoduo sent shock waves through the investor community when it raised $1.6 billion from a Nasdaq listing as a three-year-old company. Online shoppers in China were excited to see its rise as an alternative to long-time market dominators Alibaba and JD.com. But the startup founded by former Google engineer Colin Huang has ambitions well beyond e-commerce. It's answering the Chinese government's call to modernize the country's agriculture and bolster the rural economy. Life in China has become highly digital in many facets, from retail and entertainment to education and healthcare. But agriculture remains an exception.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is conquering sports and the corona pandemic is accelerating this trend. Whether it's clever fitness apps, strategic statistical analyses, grouping of spectators or even the fight against Covid-19 - AI has become indispensable in sports. In 2013 three young men founded a fitness app start-up in Munich - with a YouTube video, a newsletter and three PDFs. Today Freeletics, as the leading company in the so-called fit-tech scene, has over 50 million users in 175 countries worldwide. This spectacular development shows how rapidly AI has found its way into sports.

Artificial intelligence has made great strides since the deep learning revolution, but AI systems still struggle to extrapolate outside of their training data and adapt to new situations. For inspiration we look to the domain of science, where scientists have been able to develop theories which show remarkable ability to extrapolate and sometimes predict the existence of phenomena which have never been observed before. According to David Deutsch, this type of extrapolation, which he calls "reach", is due to scientific theories being hard to vary. In this work we investigate Deutsch's hard-to-vary principle and how it relates to more formalized principles in deep learning such as the bias-variance trade-off and Occam's razor. We distinguish internal variability, how much a model/theory can be varied internally while still yielding the same predictions, with external variability, which is how much a model must be varied to accurately predict new, out-of-distribution data. We discuss how to measure internal variability using the size of the Rashomon set and how to measure external variability using Kolmogorov complexity. We explore what role hard-to-vary explanations play in intelligence by looking at the human brain and distinguish two learning systems in the brain. The first system operates similar to deep learning and likely underlies most of perception and motor control while the second is a more creative system capable of generating hard-to-vary explanations of the world. We argue that figuring out how replicate this second system, which is capable of generating hard-to-vary explanations, is a key challenge which needs to be solved in order to realize artificial general intelligence. We make contact with the framework of Popperian epistemology which rejects induction and asserts that knowledge generation is an evolutionary process which proceeds through conjecture and refutation.

A large number of individuals are suffering from suicidal ideation in the world. There are a number of causes behind why an individual might suffer from suicidal ideation. As the most popular platform for self-expression, emotion release, and personal interaction, individuals may exhibit a number of symptoms of suicidal ideation on social media. Nevertheless, challenges from both data and knowledge aspects remain as obstacles, constraining the social media-based detection performance. Data implicitness and sparsity make it difficult to discover the inner true intentions of individuals based on their posts. Inspired by psychological studies, we build and unify a high-level suicide-oriented knowledge graph with deep neural networks for suicidal ideation detection on social media. We further design a two-layered attention mechanism to explicitly reason and establish key risk factors to individual's suicidal ideation. The performance study on microblog and Reddit shows that: 1) with the constructed personal knowledge graph, the social media-based suicidal ideation detection can achieve over 93% accuracy; and 2) among the six categories of personal factors, post, personality, and experience are the top-3 key indicators. Under these categories, posted text, stress level, stress duration, posted image, and ruminant thinking contribute to one's suicidal ideation detection.

Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs) are characterized within randomized clinical trials and postmarketing pharmacovigilance, but their molecular mechanism remains unknown in most cases. Aside from clinical trials, many elements of knowledge about drug ingredients are available in open-access knowledge graphs. In addition, drug classifications that label drugs as either causative or not for several ADRs, have been established. We propose to mine knowledge graphs for identifying biomolecular features that may enable reproducing automatically expert classifications that distinguish drug causative or not for a given type of ADR. In an explainable AI perspective, we explore simple classification techniques such as Decision Trees and Classification Rules because they provide human-readable models, which explain the classification itself, but may also provide elements of explanation for molecular mechanisms behind ADRs. In summary, we mine a knowledge graph for features; we train classifiers at distinguishing, drugs associated or not with ADRs; we isolate features that are both efficient in reproducing expert classifications and interpretable by experts (i.e., Gene Ontology terms, drug targets, or pathway names); and we manually evaluate how they may be explanatory. Extracted features reproduce with a good fidelity classifications of drugs causative or not for DILI and SCAR. Experts fully agreed that 73% and 38% of the most discriminative features are possibly explanatory for DILI and SCAR, respectively; and partially agreed (2/3) for 90% and 77% of them. Knowledge graphs provide diverse features to enable simple and explainable models to distinguish between drugs that are causative or not for ADRs. In addition to explaining classifications, most discriminative features appear to be good candidates for investigating ADR mechanisms further.