Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and synthetic controls expressed as linear combinations of observed control units. We propose a continuous-time alternative that models the latent counterfactual path explicitly using the formalism of controlled differential equations. This model is directly applicable to the general setting of irregularly-aligned multivariate time series and may be optimized in rich function spaces - thereby substantially improving on some limitations of existing approaches.

When faced with a new dataset, most practitioners begin by performing exploratory data analysis to discover interesting patterns and characteristics within data. Techniques such as association rule mining are commonly applied to uncover relationships between features (attributes) of the data. However, association rules are primarily designed for use on binary or categorical data, due to their use of rule-based machine learning. A large proportion of real-world data is continuous in nature, and discretisation of such data leads to inaccurate and less informative association rules. In this paper, we propose an alternative approach called feature relationship mining (FRM), which uses a genetic programming approach to automatically discover symbolic relationships between continuous or categorical features in data. To the best of our knowledge, our proposed approach is the first such symbolic approach with the goal of explicitly discovering relationships between features. Empirical testing on a variety of real-world datasets shows the proposed method is able to find high-quality, simple feature relationships which can be easily interpreted and which provide clear and non-trivial insight into data.

The beam interruptions (interlocks) of particle accelerators, despite being necessary safety measures, lead to abrupt operational changes and a substantial loss of beam time. A novel time series classification approach is applied to decrease beam time loss in the High Intensity Proton Accelerator complex by forecasting interlock events. The forecasting is performed through binary classification of windows of multivariate time series. The time series are transformed into Recurrence Plots which are then classified by a Convolutional Neural Network, which not only captures the inner structure of the time series but also utilizes the advances of image classification techniques. Our best performing interlock-to-stable classifier reaches an Area under the ROC Curve value of $0.71 \pm 0.01$ compared to $0.65 \pm 0.01$ of a Random Forest model, and it can potentially reduce the beam time loss by $0.5 \pm 0.2$ seconds per interlock.

With strong marketing advocacy of the benefits of cannabis use for improved mental health, cannabis legalization is a priority among legislators. However, preliminary scientific research does not conclusively associate cannabis with improved mental health. In this study, we explore the relationship between depression and consumption of cannabis in a targeted social media corpus involving personal use of cannabis with the intent to derive its potential mental health benefit. We use tweets that contain an association among three categories annotated by domain experts - Reason, Effect, and Addiction. The state-of-the-art Natural Langauge Processing techniques fall short in extracting these relationships between cannabis phrases and the depression indicators. We seek to address the limitation by using domain knowledge; specifically, the Drug Abuse Ontology for addiction augmented with Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders lexicons for mental health. Because of the lack of annotations due to the limited availability of the domain experts' time, we use supervised contrastive learning in conjunction with GPT-3 trained on a vast corpus to achieve improved performance even with limited supervision. Experimental results show that our method can significantly extract cannabis-depression relationships better than the state-of-the-art relation extractor. High-quality annotations can be provided using a nearest neighbor approach using the learned representations that can be used by the scientific community to understand the association between cannabis and depression better.

Generating an image from its textual description requires both a certain level of language understanding and common sense knowledge about the spatial relations of the physical entities being described. In this work, we focus on inferring the spatial relation between entities, a key step in the process of composing scenes based on text. More specifically, given a caption containing a mention to a subject and the location and size of the bounding box of that subject, our goal is to predict the location and size of an object mentioned in the caption. Previous work did not use the caption text information, but a manually provided relation holding between the subject and the object. In fact, the used evaluation datasets contain manually annotated ontological triplets but no captions, making the exercise unrealistic: a manual step was required; and systems did not leverage the richer information in captions. Here we present a system that uses the full caption, and Relations in Captions (REC-COCO), a dataset derived from MS-COCO which allows to evaluate spatial relation inference from captions directly. Our experiments show that: (1) it is possible to infer the size and location of an object with respect to a given subject directly from the caption; (2) the use of full text allows to place the object better than using a manually annotated relation. Our work paves the way for systems that, given a caption, decide which entities need to be depicted and their respective location and sizes, in order to then generate the final image.

Most research in the area of automatic essay grading (AEG) is geared towards scoring the essay holistically while there has also been some work done on scoring individual essay traits. In this paper, we describe a way to score essays holistically using a multi-task learning (MTL) approach, where scoring the essay holistically is the primary task, and scoring the essay traits is the auxiliary task. We compare our results with a single-task learning (STL) approach, using both LSTMs and BiLSTMs. We also compare our results of the auxiliary task with such tasks done in other AEG systems. To find out which traits work best for different types of essays, we conduct ablation tests for each of the essay traits. We also report the runtime and number of training parameters for each system. We find that MTL-based BiLSTM system gives the best results for scoring the essay holistically, as well as performing well on scoring the essay traits.

A smart healthcare system that supports clinicians for risk-calibrated treatment assessment typically requires the accurate modeling of time-to-event outcomes. To tackle this sequential treatment effect estimation problem, we developed causal dynamic survival model (CDSM) for causal inference with survival outcomes using longitudinal electronic health record (EHR). CDSM has impressive explanatory performance while maintaining the prediction capability of conventional binary neural network predictors. It borrows the strength from explanatory framework including the survival analysis and counterfactual framework and integrates them with the prediction power from a deep Bayesian recurrent neural network to extract implicit knowledge from EHR data. In two large clinical cohort studies, our model identified the conditional average treatment effect in accordance with previous literature yet detected individual effect heterogeneity over time and patient subgroups. The model provides individualized and clinically interpretable treatment effect estimations to improve patient outcomes.

SYDNEY – BGI Group, the world's largest genomics company, has worked with China's military on research that ranges from mass testing for respiratory pathogens to brain science, a review of research, patent filings and other documents has found. The review, of more than 40 publicly available documents and research papers in Chinese and English, shows BGI's links to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) include research with China's top military supercomputing experts. The extent of those links has not previously been reported. BGI has sold millions of COVID-19 test kits outside China since the outbreak of the new coronavirus pandemic, including to Europe, Australia and the United States. Shares of BGI Genomics Co., the company's subsidiary listed on the Shenzhen stock exchange, have doubled in price over the past 12 months, giving it a market value of about $9 billion.

Training artificial neural networks requires the optimization of highly non-convex loss functions. Throughout the years, the scientific community has developed an extensive set of tools and architectures that render this optimization task tractable and a general intuition has been developed for choosing hyper parameters that help the models reach minima that generalize well to unseen data. However, for the most part, the difference in trainability in between architectures, tasks and even the gap in network generalization abilities still remain unexplained. Visualization tools have played a key role in uncovering key geometric characteristics of the loss-landscape of ANNs and how they impact trainability and generalization capabilities. However, most visualizations methods proposed so far have been relatively limited in their capabilities since they are of linear nature and only capture features in a limited number of dimensions. We propose the use of the modern dimensionality reduction method PHATE which represents the SOTA in terms of capturing both global and local structures of high-dimensional data. We apply this method to visualize the loss landscape during and after training. Our visualizations reveal differences in training trajectories and generalization capabilities when used to make comparisons between optimization methods, initializations, architectures, and datasets. Given this success we anticipate this method to be used in making informed choices about these aspects of neural networks.

Rocket and MiniRocket, while two of the fastest methods for time series classification, are both somewhat less accurate than the current most accurate methods (namely, HIVE-COTE and its variants). We show that it is possible to significantly improve the accuracy of MiniRocket (and Rocket), with some additional computational expense, by expanding the set of features produced by the transform, making MultiRocket (for MiniRocket with Multiple Features) overall the single most accurate method on the datasets in the UCR archive, while still being orders of magnitude faster than any algorithm of comparable accuracy other than its precursors.