Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed from the posterior predictive of a probabilistic surrogate model. Prevalent among these is the expected improvement (EI) function. The need to ensure analytical tractability of the predictive often poses limitations that can hinder the efficiency and applicability of BO. In this paper, we cast the computation of EI as a binary classification problem, building on the link between class-probability estimation and density-ratio estimation, and the lesser-known link between density-ratios and EI. By circumventing the tractability constraints, this reformulation provides numerous advantages, not least in terms of expressiveness, versatility, and scalability.

A key challenge for abstractive summarization is ensuring factual consistency of the generated summary with respect to the original document. For example, state-of-the-art models trained on existing datasets exhibit entity hallucination, generating names of entities that are not present in the source document. We propose a set of new metrics to quantify the entity-level factual consistency of generated summaries and we show that the entity hallucination problem can be alleviated by simply filtering the training data. In addition, we propose a summary-worthy entity classification task to the training process as well as a joint entity and summary generation approach, which yield further improvements in entity level metrics.

Multi-label classification tasks such as OCR and multi-object recognition are a major focus of the growing machine learning as a service industry. While many multi-label prediction APIs are available, it is challenging for users to decide which API to use for their own data and budget, due to the heterogeneity in those APIs' price and performance. Recent work shows how to select from single-label prediction APIs. However the computation complexity of the previous approach is exponential in the number of labels and hence is not suitable for settings like OCR. In this work, we propose FrugalMCT, a principled framework that adaptively selects the APIs to use for different data in an online fashion while respecting user's budget. The API selection problem is cast as an integer linear program, which we show has a special structure that we leverage to develop an efficient online API selector with strong performance guarantees. We conduct systematic experiments using ML APIs from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Tencent and other providers for tasks including multi-label image classification, scene text recognition and named entity recognition. Across diverse tasks, FrugalMCT can achieve over 90% cost reduction while matching the accuracy of the best single API, or up to 8% better accuracy while matching the best API's cost.

User interface design is a complex task that involves designers examining a wide range of options. We present Spacewalker, a tool that allows designers to rapidly search a large design space for an optimal web UI with integrated support. Designers first annotate each attribute they want to explore in a typical HTML page, using a simple markup extension we designed. Spacewalker then parses the annotated HTML specification, and intelligently generates and distributes various configurations of the web UI to crowd workers for evaluation. We enhanced a genetic algorithm to accommodate crowd worker responses from pairwise comparison of UI designs, which is crucial for obtaining reliable feedback. Based on our experiments, Spacewalker allows designers to effectively search a large design space of a UI, using the language they are familiar with, and improve their design rapidly at a minimal cost.

The standard approach to incorporate linguistic information to neural machine translation systems consists in maintaining separate vocabularies for each of the annotated features to be incorporated (e.g. POS tags, dependency relation label), embed them, and then aggregate them with each subword in the word they belong to. This approach, however, cannot easily accommodate annotation schemes that are not dense for every word. We propose a method suited for such a case, showing large improvements in out-of-domain data, and comparable quality for the in-domain data. Experiments are performed in morphologically-rich languages like Basque and German, for the case of low-resource scenarios.

Since their inception, learning techniques under the Reservoir Computing paradigm have shown a great modeling capability for recurrent systems without the computing overheads required for other approaches. Among them, different flavors of echo state networks have attracted many stares through time, mainly due to the simplicity and computational efficiency of their learning algorithm. However, these advantages do not compensate for the fact that echo state networks remain as black-box models whose decisions cannot be easily explained to the general audience. This work addresses this issue by conducting an explainability study of Echo State Networks when applied to learning tasks with time series, image and video data. Specifically, the study proposes three different techniques capable of eliciting understandable information about the knowledge grasped by these recurrent models, namely, potential memory, temporal patterns and pixel absence effect. Potential memory addresses questions related to the effect of the reservoir size in the capability of the model to store temporal information, whereas temporal patterns unveils the recurrent relationships captured by the model over time. Finally, pixel absence effect attempts at evaluating the effect of the absence of a given pixel when the echo state network model is used for image and video classification. We showcase the benefits of our proposed suite of techniques over three different domains of applicability: time series modeling, image and, for the first time in the related literature, video classification. Our results reveal that the proposed techniques not only allow for a informed understanding of the way these models work, but also serve as diagnostic tools capable of detecting issues inherited from data (e.g. presence of hidden bias).

Accurate forecasting of medical service requirements is an important big data problem that is crucial for resource management in critical times such as natural disasters and pandemics. With the global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), several concerns have been raised regarding the ability of medical systems to handle sudden changes in the daily routines of healthcare providers. One significant problem is the management of ambulance dispatch and control during a pandemic. To help address this problem, we first analyze ambulance dispatch data records from April 2014 to August 2020 for Nagoya City, Japan. Significant changes were observed in the data during the pandemic, including the state of emergency (SoE) declared across Japan. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework based on recurrent neural networks to estimate the number of emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) during a SoE. The fusion of data includes environmental factors, the localization data of mobile phone users, and the past history of EADs, thereby providing a general framework for knowledge discovery and better resource management. The results indicate that the proposed blend of training data can be used efficiently in a real-world estimation of EAD requirements during periods of high uncertainties such as pandemics.

Interpretability methods aim to help users build trust in and understand the capabilities of machine learning models. However, existing approaches often rely on abstract, complex visualizations that poorly map to the task at hand or require non-trivial ML expertise to interpret. Here, we present two interface modules to facilitate a more intuitive assessment of model reliability. To help users better characterize and reason about a model's uncertainty, we visualize raw and aggregate information about a given input's nearest neighbors in the training dataset. Using an interactive editor, users can manipulate this input in semantically-meaningful ways, determine the effect on the output, and compare against their prior expectations. We evaluate our interface using an electrocardiogram beat classification case study. Compared to a baseline feature importance interface, we find that 9 physicians are better able to align the model's uncertainty with clinically relevant factors and build intuition about its capabilities and limitations.

Flu circulates all over the world. The worldwide infection places a substantial burden on people's health every year. Regardless of the characteristic of the worldwide circulation of flu, most previous studies focused on regional prediction of flu outbreaks. The methodology of considering the spatio-temporal correlation could help forecast flu outbreaks more precisely. Furthermore, forecasting a long-term flu outbreak, and understanding flu infection trends more accurately could help hospitals, clinics, and pharmaceutical companies to better prepare for annual flu outbreaks. Predicting a sequence of values in the future, namely, the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks should cause concern. Therefore, we highlight the importance of developing spatio-temporal methodologies to perform multi-step prediction of worldwide flu outbreaks. We compared the MAPEs of SVM, RF, LSTM models of predicting flu data of the 1-4 weeks ahead with and without other countries' flu data. We found the LSTM models achieved the lowest MAPEs in most cases. As for countries in the Southern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries. For countries in the Northern hemisphere, the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 2-4 weeks ahead with other countries are lower than those of predicting without other countries; and the MAPEs of predicting flu data of the 1-weeks ahead with other countries are higher than those of predicting without other countries, except for the UK. In this study, we performed the spatio-temporal multi-step prediction of influenza outbreaks. The methodology considering the spatio-temporal features improves the multi-step prediction of flu outbreaks.

COVID-19 classification using chest Computed Tomography (CT) has been found pragmatically useful by several studies. Due to the lack of annotated samples, these studies recommend transfer learning and explore the choices of pre-trained models and data augmentation. However, it is still unknown if there are better strategies than vanilla transfer learning for more accurate COVID-19 classification with limited CT data. This paper provides an affirmative answer, devising a novel `model' augmentation technique that allows a considerable performance boost to transfer learning for the task. Our method systematically reduces the distributional shift between the source and target domains and considers augmenting deep learning with complementary representation learning techniques. We establish the efficacy of our method with publicly available datasets and models, along with identifying contrasting observations in the previous studies.