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Deforestation, forestation, and water supply

Science

Forests as natural reservoirs and filters can store, release, and purify water through their interactions with hydrological processes. For humans, a clean, stable, and predictable water supply is one of the most valuable ecosystem services provided by forests. Yet, globally, forests have undergone many changes driven by human activities (logging, reforestation, afforestation, agriculture, and urbanization) and natural disturbances (wildfires and insect infestations). From 2010 to 2015, tropical forests declined by 5.5 million ha year −1 , whereas temperate forests expanded by 2.2 million ha year−1 ([ 1 ][1]). The effects of both deforestation and forestation (reforestation and afforestation) on water supply have generated serious concerns and debates ([ 2 ][2], [ 3 ][3]), particularly after recent catastrophic fires in Australia and the western United States. However, hydrological consequences of forest changes are never simple, and future research and watershed management require a systematic approach that considers key contributing factors and a broad spectrum of response variables related to hydrological services. Zhang et al. showed the consistent tendency of deforestation to increase annual streamflow ([ 4 ][4]). More than 80% of deforested watersheds had annual streamflow increases ranging from 0.4 to 599.1%, mainly owing to reduced evapotranspiration after 1.7 to 100% forest cover loss ([ 4 ][4]). The large variations in the magnitude of changes depend on the scale, type, and severity of forest disturbance, climate, and watershed properties ([ 4 ][4], [ 5 ][5]). Larger-scale disturbance tends to cause greater increase in annual streamflow. Hydrological response to fire is similar to the response to logging, but the severity of the impact varies with climate, fuel accumulation, fire intensity, overstory tree mortality, and climate. Fires often cause hydrophobic soils, with reduced soil infiltration and acceleration of surface runoff and soil erosion. In a recent national assessment of the contiguous United States, forest fires had the greatest increase in annual streamflow in semiarid regions, followed by warm temperate and humid continental climate regions, with insignificant responses in the subtropical Southeast ([ 6 ][6]). The hydrological impact of insect infestation is likely less pronounced than those of other disturbances. Large-scale beetle outbreaks in the western United States and British Columbia, Canada, over recent decades were predicted to increase streamflow, with reduced evapotranspiration because of the death of infested trees ([ 5 ][5]). However, further evidence showed negligible impacts of beetle infestation on annual streamflow, owing to increased evapotranspiration of surviving trees and understory vegetation ([ 7 ][7]). Forestation can either reduce annual streamflow or increase it ([ 4 ][4], [ 8 ][8]). Zhang et al. ([ 4 ][4]) found that 60% of the forestation watersheds had annual streamflow reduced by 0.7 to 65.1% with 0.7 to 100% forest cover gain, whereas 30% of them (mostly small watersheds) had annual streamflow increased by 7 to 167.7% with 12 to 100% forest cover gain. Variations in annual streamflow response to forestation are even greater than those caused by deforestation, possibly owing to site conditions prior to forestation and tree species selected. Planting with a single fast-growing exotic species can have greater reduction in annual streamflow than with native species ([ 8 ][8]). Streamflow reductions after forestation are more common in semiarid and arid regions than in the humid subtropics and tropics ([ 4 ][4], [ 5 ][5]). Large-scale reforestation programs in the semiarid Loess Plateau in China caused substantial streamflow reductions that consequently approached water resource limits ([ 9 ][9]). Dry-season low flow is critical for water supply, particularly in the face of more severe droughts under climate change. Low-flow response to forest change can be positive, neutral, or negative ([ 5 ][5], [ 10 ][10]). The variable low-flow responses are mainly attributed to low-flow generation processes, forest characteristics (age, species, and regeneration), forestry practices (retention of riparian buffers, logging methods, and silviculture), changes in soil conditions, and choice of low-flow metrics (daily or 7-day minimum flow). Nevertheless, negative low-flow response is commonly expected if soil water storage and infiltration capacities are impaired by forest disturbances (soil compaction and erosion from logging, and soil water repellency following severe fires), and their recovery through reforestation could take much longer, because of the difficulty in restoring damaged soils ([ 10 ][10]). Generally, climate, watershed properties, forest characteristics, and their interactions are the major drivers for large variations in hydrological responses to forest change ([ 2 ][2], [ 4 ][4]). Zhou et al. assessed global land-cover effects on annual streamflow, based on a general theoretical framework ([ 11 ][11]). They found that hydrological sensitivity to land-cover change was determined by watershed properties (watershed size, slope, configuration, and soil), climate (precipitation or potential evaporation), and their interactions, where land cover and watershed properties jointly indicate water retention ability. Land cover or forest change can cause greater hydrological responses in drier watersheds or those with low water retention capacity. Similarly, McDonnell et al. ([ 12 ][12]) recommended studying watershed storages and water movements in the vertical zone that includes forest canopy, soil, fresh bedrock, and the bottom of groundwater ([ 13 ][13]), to further reveal the mechanisms for variable hydrological response to forest change. The feedback between forests and climate may also introduce complexity. Forests can supply atmospheric moisture through evapotranspiration and potentially increase precipitation (precipitation recycling) locally and in downwind directions. Therefore, forest change affects not only downstream river flow, but also precipitation and water supply downwind ([ 5 ][5]). Lawrence and Vandecar revealed variable rainfall responses to tropical deforestation across landscapes, depending on deforestation thresholds, such as reduced rainfall by large-scale deforestation and increased rainfall by small clearings ([ 14 ][14]). The effects of forest change on precipitation are likely related to topography, prevailing wind, and climate, because they affect moisture residence time, moisture transportation, and precipitation generation. The lack of observational evidence highlights the need for research on the feedback between climate and forest change at regional or continental scales. Time scale is important for understanding these variations. Hydrological effects of forest change can vary with time as forests regrow. Coble et al. reviewed long-term responses of low flows to logging in 25 small catchments in North America ([ 10 ][10]). They identified dynamic low-flow responses over three distinct time periods associated with the development of forest canopy leaf area index and corresponding evapotranspiration: consistent increase in the first 5 to 10 years, variable responses (increase, no change, or decline) during the next 10 to 20 years, and substantial decline in some (16 out of 25) watersheds multiple decades later. However, no decline in low flows was found in nine watersheds during the third period—likely dependent on similar factors previously identified for variations in low-flow response. The dynamic hydrological responses suggest that long-term studies are critical for fully capturing possible trends and variations in the effects of forest change on water supply ([ 5 ][5]). ![Figure][15] The complex influence of forests on water supply Forests in watersheds play a critical role in regulating downstream water supply and associated ecosystem services. GRAPHIC: N. DESAI/ SCIENCE The consistencies and large variations over space and time in streamflow responses to forest change call for a systematic perspective to elucidate both explanatory (factors affecting hydrological functions) and response (hydrological functions) variables in future studies (see the figure). In the systematic context, explanatory variables, including climate, forest, watershed properties, and their interactions and feedback across multiple spatial-temporal scales that jointly control streamflow responses, should all be assessed. To better clarify the response, a more complete spectrum of hydrological variables, including the magnitude, duration, timing, frequency, and variability of flows, which collectively determine river flow conditions, aquatic functions, and thus ecosystem services such as water supply, should be included in an assessment ([ 15 ][16]). Nonetheless, water-supply assessments often use limited hydrological variables (such as annual mean flows), which could underestimate total hydrological functions or even produce misleading conclusions resulting from different or contrasting responses of various flow variables. A systematic assessment of the effects of deforestation and forestation on water supply requires multidisciplinary collaborations. The classic paired watershed experiment (PWE: one watershed as a control and the others as the treatment) ([ 12 ][12]), mainly designed to assess streamflow response to forest change, has limitations to evaluate interactions and feedback among water, forests, climate, and watershed properties. Future PWEs should systematically consider more variables and processes (flow pathways, water storage and retention, and hydrological sensitivity) with various approaches (isotopic tracing, telemetering, and modeling). With long-term in situ monitoring and growing remote-sensing data, the forest-water nexus at larger spatial scales should be explored using advanced analytical tools (machine learning, and coupled climatic-ecohydrological modeling) within a systematic context. Future assessment should also focus on watershed management tools such as payments for ecosystem services, with the inclusion of more representative water variables to support synergies or trade-offs between hydrological and other ecosystem services provided by forests in a changing environment. 1. [↵][17]1. R. J. Keenan et al ., For. Ecol. Manage. 352, 9 (2015). [OpenUrl][18] 2. [↵][19]1. X. Wei et al ., Glob. Change Biol. 24, 786 (2018). [OpenUrl][20] 3. [↵][21]1. K. D. Holl, 2. P. H. S. Brancalion , Science 368, 580 (2020). [OpenUrl][22][Abstract/FREE Full Text][23] 4. [↵][24]1. M. Zhang et al ., J. Hydrol. (Amst.) 546, 44 (2017). [OpenUrl][25] 5. [↵][26]1. I. F. Creed, 2. M. van Noordwijk 1. I. F. Creed et al ., in Forest and Water on a Changing Planet: Vulnerability, Adaptation and Governance Opportunities. A Global Assessment Report, I. F. Creed, M. van Noordwijk, Eds. (International Union of Forest Research Organizations, 2018). 6. [↵][27]1. D. W. Hallema et al ., Nat. Commun. 9, 1307 (2018). [OpenUrl][28] 7. [↵][29]1. K. M. Slinski, 2. T. S. Hogue, 3. A. T. Porter, 4. J. E. McCray , Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 074010 (2016). [OpenUrl][30] 8. [↵][31]1. S. Filoso, 2. M. O. Bezerra, 3. K. C. B. Weiss, 4. M. A. Palmer , PLOS ONE 12, e0183210 (2017). [OpenUrl][32] 9. [↵][33]1. X. Feng et al ., Nat. Clim. Chang. 6, 1019 (2016). [OpenUrl][34] 10. [↵][35]1. A. A. Coble et al ., Sci. Total Environ. 730, 138926 (2020). [OpenUrl][36] 11. [↵][37]1. G. Zhou et al ., Nat. Commun. 6, 5918 (2015). [OpenUrl][38] 12. [↵][39]1. J. McDonnell et al ., Nat. Sustain. 1, 378 (2018). [OpenUrl][40] 13. [↵][41]1. G. Grant, 2. W. Dietrich , Water Resour. Res. 53, 2605 (2017). [OpenUrl][42] 14. [↵][43]1. D. Lawrence, 2. K. Vandecar , Nat. Clim. Chang. 5, 27 (2015). [OpenUrl][44] 15. [↵][45]1. N. L. Poff, 2. J. K. H. Zimmerman , Freshw. Biol. 55, 194 (2010). [OpenUrl][46] Acknowledgments: This paper was supported by China National Science Foundation (no. 31770759). 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Cracking Open Bitcoin with Artificial Intelligence

#artificialintelligence

In bitcoin mining, blocks, private keys, and public keys there can be found some connection to SHA256 mentioned somewhere. This makes SHA256 interesting to investigate. In this article we are going to focus on SHA256. We will dive into the code of SHA256, while also investigating the semantics of the cryptographic hash function. We will also break SHA256 down to its basic components and do some machine learning for fun.


Artificial Intelligence Take A New Toll In Shaping The Future of Warehousing

#artificialintelligence

It is believed that each company must embrace the AI revolution from the smallest local businesses to the largest global players, and recognize how artificial intelligence can have the greatest impact on their business. The boundary for mistake is quickly diminishing, as global supply chains increase in complexity. With the rising rivalry in a linked digital environment, optimizing productivity by reducing uncertainties of all sorts becomes even more important. The increase of supersonic speed and efficiency standards among suppliers of all kinds further emphasizes the need for AI Solutions Company to harness Artificial Intelligence skills in both supply chains and logistics. Artificial Intelligence has experienced a long, zigzagging evolution to get to this opinion of application in logistics.


Spy agencies have big hopes for AI

#artificialintelligence

WHEN IT COMES to artificial intelligence (AI), spy agencies have been at it longer than most. In the cold war, America's National Security Agency (NSA) and Britain's Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) explored early AI to help transcribe and translate the enormous volumes of Soviet phone-intercepts they began hoovering up in the 1960s. Yet the technology was immature. One former European intelligence officer says his service did not use automatic transcription or translation in Afghanistan in the 2000s, relying on native speakers instead. Now the spooks are hoping to do better. The trends that have made AI attractive for business--more data, better algorithms, and more processing power to make it all hum--are giving spy agencies big ideas, too.


Drones With 'Most Advanced AI Ever' Coming Soon To Your Local Police Department

#artificialintelligence

Three years ago, Customs and Border Protection placed an order for self-flying aircraft that could launch on their own, rendezvous, locate and monitor multiple targets on the ground without any human intervention. In its reasoning for the order, CBP said the level of monitoring required to secure America's long land borders from the sky was too cumbersome for people alone. To research and build the drones, CBP handed $500,000 to Mitre Corp., a trusted nonprofit Skunk Works that was already furnishing border police with prototype rapid DNA testing and smartwatch hacking technology. They were "tested but not fielded operationally" as "the gap from simulation to reality turned out to be much larger than the research team originally envisioned," a CBP spokesperson says. This year, America's border police will test automated drones from Skydio, the Redwood City, Calif.-based startup that on Monday announced it had raised an additional $170 million in venture funding at a valuation of $1 billion. That brings the total raised for Skydio to $340 million.


Human-Understandable Decision Making for Visual Recognition

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The widespread use of deep neural networks has achieved substantial success in many tasks. However, there still exists a huge gap between the operating mechanism of deep learning models and human-understandable decision making, so that humans cannot fully trust the predictions made by these models. To date, little work has been done on how to align the behaviors of deep learning models with human perception in order to train a human-understandable model. To fill this gap, we propose a new framework to train a deep neural network by incorporating the prior of human perception into the model learning process. Our proposed model mimics the process of perceiving conceptual parts from images and assessing their relative contributions towards the final recognition. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated on two classical visual recognition tasks. The experimental results and analysis confirm our model is able to provide interpretable explanations for its predictions, but also maintain competitive recognition accuracy.


A Comparative Evaluation of Quantification Methods

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Quantification represents the problem of predicting class distributions in a given target set. It also represents a growing research field in supervised machine learning, for which a large variety of different algorithms has been proposed in recent years. However, a comprehensive empirical comparison of quantification methods that supports algorithm selection is not available yet. In this work, we close this research gap by conducting a thorough empirical performance comparison of 24 different quantification methods. To consider a broad range of different scenarios for binary as well as multiclass quantification settings, we carried out almost 3 million experimental runs on 40 data sets. We observe that no single algorithm generally outperforms all competitors, but identify a group of methods including the Median Sweep and the DyS framework that perform significantly better in binary settings. For the multiclass setting, we observe that a different, broad group of algorithms yields good performance, including the Generalized Probabilistic Adjusted Count, the readme method, the energy distance minimization method, the EM algorithm for quantification, and Friedman's method. More generally, we find that the performance on multiclass quantification is inferior to the results obtained in the binary setting. Our results can guide practitioners who intend to apply quantification algorithms and help researchers to identify opportunities for future research.


An empirical analysis of phrase-based and neural machine translation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Two popular types of machine translation (MT) are phrase-based and neural machine translation systems. Both of these types of systems are composed of multiple complex models or layers. Each of these models and layers learns different linguistic aspects of the source language. However, for some of these models and layers, it is not clear which linguistic phenomena are learned or how this information is learned. For phrase-based MT systems, it is often clear what information is learned by each model, and the question is rather how this information is learned, especially for its phrase reordering model. For neural machine translation systems, the situation is even more complex, since for many cases it is not exactly clear what information is learned and how it is learned. To shed light on what linguistic phenomena are captured by MT systems, we analyze the behavior of important models in both phrase-based and neural MT systems. We consider phrase reordering models from phrase-based MT systems to investigate which words from inside of a phrase have the biggest impact on defining the phrase reordering behavior. Additionally, to contribute to the interpretability of neural MT systems we study the behavior of the attention model, which is a key component in neural MT systems and the closest model in functionality to phrase reordering models in phrase-based systems. The attention model together with the encoder hidden state representations form the main components to encode source side linguistic information in neural MT. To this end, we also analyze the information captured in the encoder hidden state representations of a neural MT system. We investigate the extent to which syntactic and lexical-semantic information from the source side is captured by hidden state representations of different neural MT architectures.


A Novel Application of Image-to-Image Translation: Chromosome Straightening Framework by Learning from a Single Image

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In medical imaging, chromosome straightening plays a significant role in the pathological study of chromosomes and in the development of cytogenetic maps. Whereas different approaches exist for the straightening task, they are mostly geometric algorithms whose outputs are characterized by jagged edges or fragments with discontinued banding patterns. To address the flaws in the geometric algorithms, we propose a novel framework based on image-to-image translation to learn a pertinent mapping dependence for synthesizing straightened chromosomes with uninterrupted banding patterns and preserved details. In addition, to avoid the pitfall of deficient input chromosomes, we construct an augmented dataset using only one single curved chromosome image for training models. Based on this framework, we apply two popular image-to-image translation architectures, U-shape networks and conditional generative adversarial networks, to assess its efficacy. Experiments on a dataset comprising of 642 real-world chromosomes demonstrate the superiority of our framework as compared to the geometric method in straightening performance by rendering realistic and continued chromosome details. Furthermore, our straightened results improve the chromosome classification, achieving 0.98%-1.39% in mean accuracy.


Drones With 'Most Advanced AI Ever' Coming Soon To Your Local Police Department

#artificialintelligence

Three years ago, Customs and Border Protection placed an order for self-flying aircraft that could launch on their own, rendezvous, locate and monitor multiple targets on the ground without any human intervention. In its reasoning for the order, CBP said the level of monitoring required to secure America's long land borders from the sky was too cumbersome for people alone. To research and build the drones, CBP handed $500,000 to Mitre Corp., a trusted nonprofit Skunk Works that was already furnishing border police with prototype rapid DNA testing and smartwatch hacking technology. They were "tested but not fielded operationally" as "the gap from simulation to reality turned out to be much larger than the research team originally envisioned," a CBP spokesperson says. This year, America's border police will test automated drones from Skydio, the Redwood City, Calif.-based startup that on Monday announced it had raised an additional $170 million in venture funding at a valuation of $1 billion.