Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper introduces two new models for joint mortality modelling and forecasting multiple subpopulations in adaptations of the multivariate functional principal component analysis techniques. The first model extends the independent functional data model to a multi-population modelling setting. In the second one, we propose a novel multivariate functional principal component method for coherent modelling. Its design primarily fulfils the idea that when several subpopulation groups have similar socio-economic conditions or common biological characteristics, such close connections are expected to evolve in a non-diverging fashion. We demonstrate the proposed methods by using sex-specific mortality data. Their forecast performances are further compared with several existing models, including the independent functional data model and the Product-Ratio model, through comparisons with mortality data of ten developed countries. Our experiment results show that the first proposed model maintains a comparable forecast ability with the existing methods. In contrast, the second proposed model outperforms the first model as well as the current models in terms of forecast accuracy, in addition to several desirable properties.

Reasoning about the reward that a new policy π would have achieved if it had been deployed, a task known as Off-Policy Evaluation (OPE), is one of the key challenges in modern Contextual Bandits (CBs) Langford and Zhang [2007] and Reinforcement Learning (RL). A typical OPE use case is the validation of new modeling ideas by data scientists. If OPE suggests that π is better, this can then be validated online by deploying the new policy to the real world. The classic way to to answer whether π has better reward than the current policy h is via a confidence interval (CI). Unfortunately, CIs take a very static view of the world. Suppose that π is better than h and our OPE shows a higher but not significantly better estimated reward.

Bounded rationality is an important consideration stemming from the fact that agents often have limits on their processing abilities, making the assumption of perfect rationality inapplicable to many real tasks. We propose an information-theoretic approach to the inference of agent decisions under Smithian competition. The model explicitly captures the boundedness of agents (limited in their information-processing capacity) as the cost of information acquisition for expanding their prior beliefs. The expansion is measured as the Kullblack-Leibler divergence between posterior decisions and prior beliefs. When information acquisition is free, the \textit{homo economicus} agent is recovered, while in cases when information acquisition becomes costly, agents instead revert to their prior beliefs. The maximum entropy principle is used to infer least-biased decisions, based upon the notion of Smithian competition formalised within the Quantal Response Statistical Equilibrium framework. The incorporation of prior beliefs into such a framework allowed us to systematically explore the effects of prior beliefs on decision-making, in the presence of market feedback. We verified the proposed model using Australian housing market data, showing how the incorporation of prior knowledge alters the resulting agent decisions. Specifically, it allowed for the separation (and analysis) of past beliefs and utility maximisation behaviour of the agent.

Statistical learning theory provides the foundation to applied machine learning, and its various successful applications in computer vision, natural language processing and other scientific domains. The theory, however, does not take into account the unique challenges of performing statistical learning in geospatial settings. For instance, it is well known that model errors cannot be assumed to be independent and identically distributed in geospatial (a.k.a. regionalized) variables due to spatial correlation; and trends caused by geophysical processes lead to covariate shifts between the domain where the model was trained and the domain where it will be applied, which in turn harm the use of classical learning methodologies that rely on random samples of the data. In this work, we introduce the geostatistical (transfer) learning problem, and illustrate the challenges of learning from geospatial data by assessing widely-used methods for estimating generalization error of learning models, under covariate shift and spatial correlation. Experiments with synthetic Gaussian process data as well as with real data from geophysical surveys in New Zealand indicate that none of the methods are adequate for model selection in a geospatial context. We provide general guidelines regarding the choice of these methods in practice while new methods are being actively researched.

High-resolution mapping of cells and tissue structures provides a foundation for developing interpretable machine-learning models for computational pathology. Deep learning algorithms can provide accurate mappings given large numbers of labeled instances for training and validation. Generating adequate volume of quality labels has emerged as a critical barrier in computational pathology given the time and effort required from pathologists. In this paper we describe an approach for engaging crowds of medical students and pathologists that was used to produce a dataset of over 220,000 annotations of cell nuclei in breast cancers. We show how suggested annotations generated by a weak algorithm can improve the accuracy of annotations generated by non-experts and can yield useful data for training segmentation algorithms without laborious manual tracing. We systematically examine interrater agreement and describe modifications to the MaskRCNN model to improve cell mapping. We also describe a technique we call Decision Tree Approximation of Learned Embeddings (DTALE) that leverages nucleus segmentations and morphologic features to improve the transparency of nucleus classification models. The annotation data produced in this study are freely available for algorithm development and benchmarking at: https://sites.google.com/view/nucls .

Bayesian optimization (BO) is among the most effective and widely-used blackbox optimization methods. BO proposes solutions according to an explore-exploit trade-off criterion encoded in an acquisition function, many of which are computed from the posterior predictive of a probabilistic surrogate model. Prevalent among these is the expected improvement (EI) function. The need to ensure analytical tractability of the predictive often poses limitations that can hinder the efficiency and applicability of BO. In this paper, we cast the computation of EI as a binary classification problem, building on the link between class-probability estimation and density-ratio estimation, and the lesser-known link between density-ratios and EI. By circumventing the tractability constraints, this reformulation provides numerous advantages, not least in terms of expressiveness, versatility, and scalability.

A key challenge for abstractive summarization is ensuring factual consistency of the generated summary with respect to the original document. For example, state-of-the-art models trained on existing datasets exhibit entity hallucination, generating names of entities that are not present in the source document. We propose a set of new metrics to quantify the entity-level factual consistency of generated summaries and we show that the entity hallucination problem can be alleviated by simply filtering the training data. In addition, we propose a summary-worthy entity classification task to the training process as well as a joint entity and summary generation approach, which yield further improvements in entity level metrics.

Multi-label classification tasks such as OCR and multi-object recognition are a major focus of the growing machine learning as a service industry. While many multi-label prediction APIs are available, it is challenging for users to decide which API to use for their own data and budget, due to the heterogeneity in those APIs' price and performance. Recent work shows how to select from single-label prediction APIs. However the computation complexity of the previous approach is exponential in the number of labels and hence is not suitable for settings like OCR. In this work, we propose FrugalMCT, a principled framework that adaptively selects the APIs to use for different data in an online fashion while respecting user's budget. The API selection problem is cast as an integer linear program, which we show has a special structure that we leverage to develop an efficient online API selector with strong performance guarantees. We conduct systematic experiments using ML APIs from Google, Microsoft, Amazon, IBM, Tencent and other providers for tasks including multi-label image classification, scene text recognition and named entity recognition. Across diverse tasks, FrugalMCT can achieve over 90% cost reduction while matching the accuracy of the best single API, or up to 8% better accuracy while matching the best API's cost.

User interface design is a complex task that involves designers examining a wide range of options. We present Spacewalker, a tool that allows designers to rapidly search a large design space for an optimal web UI with integrated support. Designers first annotate each attribute they want to explore in a typical HTML page, using a simple markup extension we designed. Spacewalker then parses the annotated HTML specification, and intelligently generates and distributes various configurations of the web UI to crowd workers for evaluation. We enhanced a genetic algorithm to accommodate crowd worker responses from pairwise comparison of UI designs, which is crucial for obtaining reliable feedback. Based on our experiments, Spacewalker allows designers to effectively search a large design space of a UI, using the language they are familiar with, and improve their design rapidly at a minimal cost.

The standard approach to incorporate linguistic information to neural machine translation systems consists in maintaining separate vocabularies for each of the annotated features to be incorporated (e.g. POS tags, dependency relation label), embed them, and then aggregate them with each subword in the word they belong to. This approach, however, cannot easily accommodate annotation schemes that are not dense for every word. We propose a method suited for such a case, showing large improvements in out-of-domain data, and comparable quality for the in-domain data. Experiments are performed in morphologically-rich languages like Basque and German, for the case of low-resource scenarios.