Time series prediction with neural networks have been focus of much research in the past few decades. Given the recent deep learning revolution, there has been much attention in using deep learning models for time series prediction, and hence it is important to evaluate their strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we present an evaluation study that compares the performance of deep learning models for multi-step ahead time series prediction. Our deep learning methods compromise of simple recurrent neural networks, long short term memory (LSTM) networks, bidirectional LSTM, encoder-decoder LSTM networks, and convolutional neural networks. We also provide comparison with simple neural networks use stochastic gradient descent and adaptive gradient method (Adam) for training. We focus on univariate and multi-step-ahead prediction from benchmark time series datasets and compare with results from from the literature. The results show that bidirectional and encoder-decoder LSTM provide the best performance in accuracy for the given time series problems with different properties.

Pandemics can bring a range of devastating consequences to public health and the world economy. Identifying the most effective control strategies has been the imperative task all around the world. Various public health control strategies have been proposed and tested against pandemic diseases (e.g., COVID-19). We study two specific pandemic control models: the susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered (SEIR) model with vaccination control; and the SEIR model with shield immunity control. We express the pandemic control requirement in metric temporal logic (MTL) formulas. We then develop an iterative approach for synthesizing the optimal control strategies with MTL specifications. We provide simulation results in two different scenarios for robust control of the COVID-19 pandemic: one for vaccination control, and another for shield immunity control, with the model parameters estimated from data in Lombardy, Italy. The results show that the proposed synthesis approach can generate control inputs such that the time-varying numbers of individuals in each category (e.g., infectious, immune) satisfy the MTL specifications with robustness against initial state and parameter uncertainties.

The wide adoption of Electronic Health Records (EHR) has resulted in large amounts of clinical data becoming available, which promises to support service delivery and advance clinical and informatics research. Deep learning techniques have demonstrated performance in predictive analytic tasks using EHRs yet they typically lack model result transparency or explainability functionalities and require cumbersome pre-processing tasks. Moreover, EHRs contain heterogeneous and multi-modal data points such as text, numbers and time series which further hinder visualisation and interpretability. This paper proposes a deep learning framework to: 1) encode patient pathways from EHRs into images, 2) highlight important events within pathway images, and 3) enable more complex predictions with additional intelligibility. The proposed method relies on a deep attention mechanism for visualisation of the predictions and allows predicting multiple sequential outcomes.

For the modeling, design and planning of future energy transmission networks, it is vital for stakeholders to access faithful and useful power flow data, while provably maintaining the privacy of business confidentiality of service providers. This critical challenge has recently been somewhat addressed in [1]. This paper significantly extends this existing work. First, we reduce the potential leakage information by proposing a fundamentally different post-processing method, using public information of grid losses rather than power dispatch, which achieve a higher level of privacy protection. Second, we protect more sensitive parameters, i.e., branch shunt susceptance in addition to series impedance (complete pi-model). This protects power flow data for the transmission high-voltage networks, using differentially private transformations that maintain the optimal power flow consistent with, and faithful to, expected model behaviour. Third, we tested our approach at a larger scale than previous work, using the PGLib-OPF test cases [10]. This resulted in the successful obfuscation of up to a 4700-bus system, which can be successfully solved with faithfulness of parameters and good utility to data analysts. Our approach addresses a more feasible and realistic scenario, and provides higher than state-of-the-art privacy guarantees, while maintaining solvability, fidelity and feasibility of the system.

The computational underpinnings of positive psychotic symptoms have recently received significant attention. Candidate mechanisms include some combination of maladaptive priors and reduced updating of these priors during perception. A potential benefit of models with such mechanisms is their ability to link multiple levels of explanation. This is key to improving how we understand the experience of psychosis. Moreover, it points us towards more comprehensive avenues for therapeutic research by providing a putative mechanism that could allow for the generation of new treatments from first principles. In order to demonstrate this, our conceptual paper will discuss the application of the insights from previous computational models to an important and complex set of evidence-based clinical interventions with strong social elements, such as coordinated specialty care clinics in early psychosis and assertive community treatment. These interventions may include but also go beyond psychopharmacology, providing, we argue, structure and predictability for patients experiencing psychosis. We develop the argument that this structure and predictability directly counteract the relatively low precision afforded to sensory information in psychosis, while also providing the patient more access to external cognitive resources in the form of providers and the structure of the programs themselves. We discuss how computational models explain the resulting reduction in symptoms, as well as the predictions these models make about potential responses of patients to modifications or to different variations of these interventions. We also link, via the framework of computational models, the experiences of patients and response to interventions to putative neurobiology.

In this paper, we propose an efficient saliency map generation method, called Group score-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Group-CAM), which adopts the "split-transform-merge" strategy to generate saliency maps. Specifically, for an input image, the class activations are firstly split into groups. In each group, the sub-activations are summed and de-noised as an initial mask. After that, the initial masks are transformed with meaningful perturbations and then applied to preserve sub-pixels of the input (i.e., masked inputs), which are then fed into the network to calculate the confidence scores. Finally, the initial masks are weighted summed to form the final saliency map, where the weights are confidence scores produced by the masked inputs. Group-CAM is efficient yet effective, which only requires dozens of queries to the network while producing target-related saliency maps. As a result, Group-CAM can be served as an effective data augment trick for fine-tuning the networks. We comprehensively evaluate the performance of Group-CAM on common-used benchmarks, including deletion and insertion tests on ImageNet-1k, and pointing game tests on COCO2017. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Group-CAM achieves better visual performance than the current state-of-the-art explanation approaches. The code is available at https://github.com/wofmanaf/Group-CAM.

The unification of statistical (data-driven) and symbolic (knowledge-driven) methods is widely recognised as one of the key challenges of modern AI. Recent years have seen large number of publications on such hybrid neuro-symbolic AI systems. That rapidly growing literature is highly diverse and mostly empirical, and is lacking a unifying view of the large variety of these hybrid systems. In this paper we analyse a large body of recent literature and we propose a set of modular design patterns for such hybrid, neuro-symbolic systems. We are able to describe the architecture of a very large number of hybrid systems by composing only a small set of elementary patterns as building blocks. The main contributions of this paper are: 1) a taxonomically organised vocabulary to describe both processes and data structures used in hybrid systems; 2) a set of 15+ design patterns for hybrid AI systems, organised in a set of elementary patterns and a set of compositional patterns; 3) an application of these design patterns in two realistic use-cases for hybrid AI systems. Our patterns reveal similarities between systems that were not recognised until now. Finally, our design patterns extend and refine Kautz' earlier attempt at categorising neuro-symbolic architectures.

This week, we will briefly touch upon the topic of artificial intelligence, or AI, discuss what it is, why it is so important to the American empire and national security, and how the ancient Chamorro people of the Marianas can prepare themselves to be ready for future possible job and entrepreneurial opportunities at the intersection of warfare and technology. Part of the answer is found in a report released by the congressionally established National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, which outlined the national importance of AI and its application to all facets of American--and by implication, American colonial--society. AI will become more important as Guam continues to move toward technological solutions for future energy, food technology and security opportunities. Now is the time for the governments of Guam and the CNMI to consider creating a Marianas Artificial Intelligence, Security and Emerging Technologies Understanding advisory board to learn and more completely seek to comprehend the nature of AI, how it is currently used and how it presents opportunities and vulnerabilities to every aspect of Pacific island life. A most dangerous aspect of rapidly emerging AI enabled technology and networks is that nation state adversaries such as China and Russia may outpace the United States on this front over the next 10 to 15 years.

Australia could once again have a globally competitive manufacturing sector by using automation driven by artificial intelligence (AI). That's the view of University of Adelaide researchers who are aiming to play a major role in the development of AI which is poised to reshape the global economy, bringing challenges and opportunities. The authors of the latest Economic Issues paper--"The impact of AI on the future of work and workers"--published by the South Australian Centre for Economic Studies (SACES) and the Australian Institute of Machine Learning (AIML), both research centers at the University of Adelaide, maintain that AI "has reached a global tipping point and we need to plan for it." The authors, Professor Anton van den Hengel and Dr. Paul Dalby, Director and Business Development Manager, respectively, of the AIML, and SACES Research Associate, Dr. Andreas Cebulla, describe AI as "the automation of tasks normally requiring human intelligence." "AI has the potential to temper the impact of globalization which has seen industry leaving developed countries seeking lower cost manufacturing options offshore," the authors say.

The banning of video game Disco Elysium from sale in Australia has renewed calls for the Australian government to overhaul the classification system to move away from the "moral panic" associated with video games. On Friday afternoon, the Australian classification board announced Disco Elysium – The Final Cut was refused classification on the grounds the game was found to "depict, express or otherwise deal with matters of sex, drug misuse or addiction, crime, cruelty, violence or revolting or abhorrent phenomena" in a way that offended "against the standards of morality, decency and propriety generally accepted by reasonable adults". It ruled the game should not be classified. The post-war murder mystery role-playing game has won over a dozen industry awards since its release in 2019. The game has been available in Australia for two years through the Steam online games store, but the game's developers, ZA/UM planned to launch the game on consoles this month, meaning before it could be sold in stores in Australia, it had to go to the classification board for review.