Confidence in the regulatory environment is crucial to enable responsible AI innovation and foster the social acceptance of these powerful new technologies. One notable source of uncertainty is, however, that the existing legal liability system is unable to assign responsibility where a potentially harmful conduct and/or the harm itself are unforeseeable, yet some instantiations of AI and/or the harms they may trigger are not foreseeable in the legal sense. The unpredictability of how courts would handle such cases makes the risks involved in the investment and use of AI difficult to calculate with confidence, creating an environment that is not conducive to innovation and may deprive society of some benefits AI could provide. To tackle this problem, we propose to draw insights from financial regulatory best practices and establish a system of AI guarantee schemes. We envisage the system to form part of the broader market-structuring regulatory frameworks, with the primary function to provide a readily available, clear, and transparent funding mechanism to compensate claims that are either extremely hard or impossible to realize via conventional litigation. We propose it to be at least partially industry-funded. Funding arrangements should depend on whether it would pursue other potential policy goals aimed more broadly at controlling the trajectory of AI innovation to increase economic and social welfare worldwide. Because of the global relevance of the issue, rather than focusing on any particular legal system, we trace relevant developments across multiple jurisdictions and engage in a high-level, comparative conceptual debate around the suitability of the foreseeability concept to limit legal liability. The paper also refrains from confronting the intricacies of the case law of specific jurisdictions for now and—recognizing the importance of this task—leaves this to further research in support of the legal system’s incremental adaptation to the novel challenges of present and future AI technologies. This article appears in the special track on AI and Society.

Manual labelling of training examples is common practice in supervised learning. When the labelling task is of non-trivial difficulty, the supplied labels may not be equal to the ground-truth labels, and label noise is introduced into the training dataset. If the manual annotation is carried out by multiple experts, the same training example can be given different class assignments by different experts, which is indicative of label noise. In the framework of model-based classification, a simple, but key observation is that when the manual labels are sampled using the posterior probabilities of class membership, the noisy labels are as valuable as the ground-truth labels in terms of statistical information. A relaxation of this process is a random effects model for imperfect labelling by a group that uses approximate posterior probabilities of class membership. The relative efficiency of logistic regression using the noisy labels compared to logistic regression using the ground-truth labels can then be derived. The main finding is that logistic regression can be robust to label noise when label noise and classification difficulty are positively correlated. In particular, when classification difficulty is the only source of label errors, multiple sets of noisy labels can supply more information for the estimation of a classification rule compared to the single set of ground-truth labels.

Mixture of experts (MoE) is a popular class of models in statistics and machine learning that has sustained attention over the years, due to its flexibility and effectiveness. We consider the Gaussian-gated localized MoE (GLoME) regression model for modeling heterogeneous data. This model poses challenging questions with respect to the statistical estimation and model selection problems, including feature selection, both from the computational and theoretical points of view. We study the problem of estimating the number of components of the GLoME model, in a penalized maximum likelihood estimation framework. We provide a lower bound on the penalty that ensures a weak oracle inequality is satisfied by our estimator. To support our theoretical result, we perform numerical experiments on simulated and real data, which illustrate the performance of our finite-sample oracle inequality.

Shapley values have become one of the most popular feature attribution explanation methods. However, most prior work has focused on post-hoc Shapley explanations, which can be computationally demanding due to its exponential time complexity and preclude model regularization based on Shapley explanations during training. Thus, we propose to incorporate Shapley values themselves as latent representations in deep models thereby making Shapley explanations first-class citizens in the modeling paradigm. This intrinsic explanation approach enables layer-wise explanations, explanation regularization of the model during training, and fast explanation computation at test time. We define the Shapley transform that transforms the input into a Shapley representation given a specific function. We operationalize the Shapley transform as a neural network module and construct both shallow and deep networks, called ShapNets, by composing Shapley modules. We prove that our Shallow ShapNets compute the exact Shapley values and our Deep ShapNets maintain the missingness and accuracy properties of Shapley values. We demonstrate on synthetic and real-world datasets that our ShapNets enable layer-wise Shapley explanations, novel Shapley regularizations during training, and fast computation while maintaining reasonable performance. Code is available at https://github.com/inouye-lab/ShapleyExplanationNetworks.

James Cameron's obsession with the ocean deep began when he was an adolescent, in rural Canada. He read National Geographic accounts of deep-sea excursions and idolized Jacques Cousteau and his crew. "They always had this great French sense of style," he said recently. "They breathed it, quite literally, with their Aqua-Lungs. They got in their silver wetsuits and went exploring. It was like a science-fiction movie. I said, 'I need to do that.' " The problem: he lived five hundred kilometres from the nearest ocean.

Australians are being urged to secure their social media accounts after the details of more than 500 million global Facebook users were found online in a massive data breach. The details published freely online included names, phone numbers, email addresses, account IDs and bios. In a statement, Facebook said the leaked information was old, and came from a problem it had resolved in 2019, but experts told Guardian Australia the data could still cause problems for users caught up in the breach. So what might hackers do with your info? How can you check if your data was leaked?

The global ambitions of a carbon-neutral society necessitate a stable and robust smart grid that capitalises on frequency reserves of renewable energy. Frequency reserves are resources that adjust power production or consumption in real time to react to a power grid frequency deviation. Revenue generation motivates the availability of these resources for managing such deviations. However, limited research has been conducted on data-driven decisions and optimal bidding strategies for trading such capacities in multiple frequency reserves markets. We address this limitation by making the following research contributions. Firstly, a generalised model is designed based on an extensive study of critical characteristics of global frequency reserves markets. Secondly, three bidding strategies are proposed, based on this market model, to capitalise on price peaks in multi-stage markets. Two strategies are proposed for non-reschedulable loads, in which case the bidding strategy aims to select the market with the highest anticipated price, and the third bidding strategy focuses on rescheduling loads to hours on which highest reserve market prices are anticipated. The third research contribution is an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based bidding optimization framework that implements these three strategies, with novel uncertainty metrics that supplement data-driven price prediction. Finally, the framework is evaluated empirically using a case study of multiple frequency reserves markets in Finland. The results from this evaluation confirm the effectiveness of the proposed bidding strategies and the AI-based bidding optimization framework in terms of cumulative revenue generation, leading to an increased availability of frequency reserves.

The predictive advantage of combining several different predictive models is widely accepted. Particularly in time series forecasting problems, this combination is often dynamic to cope with potential non-stationary sources of variation present in the data. Despite their superior predictive performance, ensemble methods entail two main limitations: high computational costs and lack of transparency. These issues often preclude the deployment of such approaches, in favour of simpler yet more efficient and reliable ones. In this paper, we leverage the idea of model compression to address this problem in time series forecasting tasks. Model compression approaches have been mostly unexplored for forecasting. Their application in time series is challenging due to the evolving nature of the data. Further, while the literature focuses on neural networks, we apply model compression to distinct types of methods. In an extensive set of experiments, we show that compressing dynamic forecasting ensembles into an individual model leads to a comparable predictive performance and a drastic reduction in computational costs. Further, the compressed individual model with best average rank is a rule-based regression model. Thus, model compression also leads to benefits in terms of model interpretability. The experiments carried in this paper are fully reproducible.

Commonsense knowledge acquisition and reasoning have long been a core artificial intelligence problem. However, in the past, there has been a lack of scalable methods to collect commonsense knowledge. In this paper, we propose to develop principles for collecting commonsense knowledge based on selectional preference. We generalize the definition of selectional preference from one-hop linguistic syntactic relations to higher-order relations over linguistic graphs. Unlike previous commonsense knowledge definition (e.g., ConceptNet), the selectional preference (SP) knowledge only relies on statistical distribution over linguistic graphs, which can be efficiently and accurately acquired from the unlabeled corpus with modern tools. Following this principle, we develop a large-scale eventuality (a linguistic term covering activity, state, and event)-based knowledge graph ASER, where each eventuality is represented as a dependency graph, and the relation between them is a discourse relation defined in shallow discourse parsing. The higher-order selectional preference over collected linguistic graphs reflects various kinds of commonsense knowledge. Moreover, motivated by the observation that humans understand events by abstracting the observed events to a higher level and can thus transferring their knowledge to new events, we propose a conceptualization module to significantly boost the coverage of ASER. In total, ASER contains 438 million eventualities and 648 million edges between eventualities. After conceptualization with Probase, a selectional preference based concept-instance relational knowledge base, our concept graph contains 15 million conceptualized eventualities and 224 million edges between them. Detailed analysis is provided to demonstrate its quality. All the collected data, APIs, and tools are available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/ASER.

Reasoning about information from multiple parts of a passage to derive an answer is an open challenge for reading-comprehension models. In this paper, we present an approach that reasons about complex questions by decomposing them to simpler subquestions that can take advantage of single-span extraction reading-comprehension models, and derives the final answer according to instructions in a predefined reasoning template. We focus on subtraction-based arithmetic questions and evaluate our approach on a subset of the DROP dataset. We show that our approach is competitive with the state-of-the-art while being interpretable and requires little supervision