Order effects occur when judgments about a hypothesis's probability given a sequence of information do not equal the probability of the same hypothesis when the information is reversed. Different experiments have been performed in the literature that supports evidence of order effects. We proposed a Bayesian update model for order effects where each question can be thought of as a mini-experiment where the respondents reflect on their beliefs. We showed that order effects appear, and they have a simple cognitive explanation: the respondent's prior belief that two questions are correlated. The proposed Bayesian model allows us to make several predictions: (1) we found certain conditions on the priors that limit the existence of order effects; (2) we show that, for our model, the QQ equality is not necessarily satisfied (due to symmetry assumptions); and (3) the proposed Bayesian model has the advantage of possessing fewer parameters than its quantum counterpart.

Australia's top spy agency will use artificial intelligence to protect against foreign hackers after receiving a $1.3 billion boost – the largest in ASIO’s 70-year history. Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews has told Sky News recent cyber-attacks have reinforced the need to act urgently. The technology will use algorithms to decrypt and decode mass data quickly and is not designed to equip the agency for mass surveillance programs.

We consider the task of linking social media accounts that belong to the same author in an automated fashion on the basis of the content and metadata of their corresponding document streams. We focus on learning an embedding that maps variable-sized samples of user activity -- ranging from single posts to entire months of activity -- to a vector space, where samples by the same author map to nearby points. The approach does not require human-annotated data for training purposes, which allows us to leverage large amounts of social media content. The proposed model outperforms several competitive baselines under a novel evaluation framework modeled after established recognition benchmarks in other domains. Our method achieves high linking accuracy, even with small samples from accounts not seen at training time, a prerequisite for practical applications of the proposed linking framework.

Many businesses and industries nowadays rely on large quantities of time series data making time series forecasting an important research area. Global forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series have shown a huge potential in providing accurate forecasts compared with the traditional univariate forecasting models that work on isolated series. However, there are currently no comprehensive time series archives for forecasting that contain datasets of time series from similar sources available for the research community to evaluate the performance of new global forecasting algorithms over a wide variety of datasets. In this paper, we present such a comprehensive time series forecasting archive containing 20 publicly available time series datasets from varied domains, with different characteristics in terms of frequency, series lengths, and inclusion of missing values. We also characterise the datasets, and identify similarities and differences among them, by conducting a feature analysis. Furthermore, we present the performance of a set of standard baseline forecasting methods over all datasets across eight error metrics, for the benefit of researchers using the archive to benchmark their forecasting algorithms.

Reducing cycle time is a recurrent concern in the field of business process management. Depending on the process, various interventions may be triggered to reduce the cycle time of a case, for example, using a faster shipping service in an order-to-delivery process or giving a phone call to a customer to obtain missing information rather than waiting passively. Each of these interventions comes with a cost. This paper tackles the problem of determining if and when to trigger a time-reducing intervention in a way that maximizes the total net gain. The paper proposes a prescriptive process monitoring method that uses orthogonal random forest models to estimate the causal effect of triggering a time-reducing intervention for each ongoing case of a process. Based on this causal effect estimate, the method triggers interventions according to a user-defined policy. The method is evaluated on two real-life logs.

Decision lists (DLs) find a wide range of uses for classification problems in Machine Learning (ML), being implemented in a number of ML frameworks. DLs are often perceived as interpretable. However, building on recent results for decision trees (DTs), we argue that interpretability is an elusive goal for some DLs. As a result, for some uses of DLs, it will be important to compute (rigorous) explanations. Unfortunately, and in clear contrast with the case of DTs, this paper shows that computing explanations for DLs is computationally hard. Motivated by this result, the paper proposes propositional encodings for computing abductive explanations (AXps) and contrastive explanations (CXps) of DLs. Furthermore, the paper investigates the practical efficiency of a MARCO-like approach for enumerating explanations. The experimental results demonstrate that, for DLs used in practical settings, the use of SAT oracles offers a very efficient solution, and that complete enumeration of explanations is most often feasible.

Commonsense reasoning aims to incorporate sets of commonsense facts, retrieved from Commonsense Knowledge Graphs (CKG), to draw conclusion about ordinary situations. The dynamic nature of commonsense knowledge postulates models capable of performing multi-hop reasoning over new situations. This feature also results in having large-scale sparse Knowledge Graphs, where such reasoning process is needed to predict relations between new events. However, existing approaches in this area are limited by considering CKGs as a limited set of facts, thus rendering them unfit for reasoning over new unseen situations and events. In this paper, we present a neural-symbolic reasoner, which is capable of reasoning over large-scale dynamic CKGs. The logic rules for reasoning over CKGs are learned during training by our model. In addition to providing interpretable explanation, the learned logic rules help to generalise prediction to newly introduced events. Experimental results on the task of link prediction on CKGs prove the effectiveness of our model by outperforming the state-of-the-art models.

In AI and law, systems that are designed for decision support should be explainable when pursuing justice. In order for these systems to be fair and responsible, they should make correct decisions and make them using a sound and transparent rationale. In this paper, we introduce a knowledge-driven method for model-agnostic rationale evaluation using dedicated test cases, similar to unit-testing in professional software development. We apply this new method in a set of machine learning experiments aimed at extracting known knowledge structures from artificial datasets from fictional and non-fictional legal settings. We show that our method allows us to analyze the rationale of black-box machine learning systems by assessing which rationale elements are learned or not. Furthermore, we show that the rationale can be adjusted using tailor-made training data based on the results of the rationale evaluation.

There is considerable interest in designing meta-reinforcement learning (meta-RL) algorithms, which enable autonomous agents to adapt new tasks from small amount of experience. In meta-RL, the specification (such as reward function) of current task is hidden from the agent. In addition, states are hidden within each task owing to sensor noise or limitations in realistic environments. Therefore, the meta-RL agent faces the challenge of specifying both the hidden task and states based on small amount of experience. To address this, we propose estimating disentangled belief about task and states, leveraging an inductive bias that the task and states can be regarded as global and local features of each task. Specifically, we train a hierarchical state-space model (HSSM) parameterized by deep neural networks as an environment model, whose global and local latent variables correspond to task and states, respectively. Because the HSSM does not allow analytical computation of posterior distribution, i.e., belief, we employ amortized inference to approximate it. After the belief is obtained, we can augment observations of a model-free policy with the belief to efficiently train the policy. Moreover, because task and state information are factorized and interpretable, the downstream policy training is facilitated compared with the prior methods that did not consider the hierarchical nature. Empirical validations on a GridWorld environment confirm that the HSSM can separate the hidden task and states information. Then, we compare the meta-RL agent with the HSSM to prior meta-RL methods in MuJoCo environments, and confirm that our agent requires less training data and reaches higher final performance.

Multi working-machines pathfinding solution enables more mobile machines simultaneously to work inside of a working site so that the productivity can be expected to increase evolutionary. To date, the potential cooperation conflicts among construction machinery limit the amount of construction machinery investment in a concrete working site. To solve the cooperation problem, civil engineers optimize the working site from a logistic perspective while computer scientists improve pathfinding algorithms' performance on the given benchmark maps. In the practical implementation of a construction site, it is sensible to solve the problem with a hybrid solution; therefore, in our study, we proposed an algorithm based on a cutting-edge multi-pathfinding algorithm to enable the massive number of machines cooperation and offer the advice to modify the unreasonable part of the working site in the meantime. Using the logistic information from BIM, such as unloading and loading point, we added a pathfinding solution for multi machines to improve the whole construction fleet's productivity. In the previous study, the experiments were limited to no more than ten participants, and the computational time to gather the solution was not given; thus, we publish our pseudo-code, our tested map, and benchmark our results. Our algorithm's most extensive feature is that it can quickly replan the path to overcome the emergency on a construction site.