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Uncertainty-Aware Learning for Improvements in Image Quality of the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We leverage state-of-the-art machine learning methods and a decade's worth of archival data from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT) to predict observatory image quality (IQ) from environmental conditions and observatory operating parameters. Specifically, we develop accurate and interpretable models of the complex dependence between data features and observed IQ for CFHT's wide field camera, MegaCam. Our contributions are several-fold. First, we collect, collate and reprocess several disparate data sets gathered by CFHT scientists. Second, we predict probability distribution functions (PDFs) of IQ, and achieve a mean absolute error of $\sim0.07''$ for the predicted medians. Third, we explore data-driven actuation of the 12 dome ``vents'', installed in 2013-14 to accelerate the flushing of hot air from the dome. We leverage epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties in conjunction with probabilistic generative modeling to identify candidate vent adjustments that are in-distribution (ID) and, for the optimal configuration for each ID sample, we predict the reduction in required observing time to achieve a fixed SNR. On average, the reduction is $\sim15\%$. Finally, we rank sensor data features by Shapley values to identify the most predictive variables for each observation. Our long-term goal is to construct reliable and real-time models that can forecast optimal observatory operating parameters for optimization of IQ. Such forecasts can then be fed into scheduling protocols and predictive maintenance routines. We anticipate that such approaches will become standard in automating observatory operations and maintenance by the time CFHT's successor, the Maunakea Spectroscopic Explorer (MSE), is installed in the next decade.


Exploring Context Modeling Techniques on the Spatiotemporal Crowd Flow Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In the big data and AI era, context is widely exploited as extra information which makes it easier to learn a more complex pattern in machine learning systems. However, most of the existing related studies seldom take context into account. The difficulty lies in the unknown generalization ability of both context and its modeling techniques across different scenarios. To fill the above gaps, we conduct a large-scale analytical and empirical study on the spatiotemporal crowd prediction (STCFP) problem that is a widely-studied and hot research topic. We mainly make three efforts:(i) we develop new taxonomy about both context features and context modeling techniques based on extensive investigations in prevailing STCFP research; (ii) we conduct extensive experiments on seven datasets with hundreds of millions of records to quantitatively evaluate the generalization ability of both distinct context features and context modeling techniques; (iii) we summarize some guidelines for researchers to conveniently utilize context in diverse applications.


Optimal Epidemic Control as a Contextual Combinatorial Bandit with Budget

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In light of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is an open challenge and critical practical problem to find a optimal way to dynamically prescribe the best policies that balance both the governmental resources and epidemic control in different countries and regions. To solve this multi-dimensional tradeoff of exploitation and exploration, we formulate this technical challenge as a contextual combinatorial bandit problem that jointly optimizes a multi-criteria reward function. Given the historical daily cases in a region and the past intervention plans in place, the agent should generate useful intervention plans that policy makers can implement in real time to minimizing both the number of daily COVID-19 cases and the stringency of the recommended interventions. We prove this concept with simulations of multiple realistic policy making scenarios.


AI safety tools can help mitigate bias in algorithms

#artificialintelligence

Where does your enterprise stand on the AI adoption curve? Take our AI survey to find out. As AI proliferates, researchers are beginning to call for technologies that might foster trust in AI-powered systems. According to a survey conducted by KPMG, across five countries -- the U.S., the U.K., Germany, Canada, and Australia -- over a third of the general public says that they're unwilling to place trust in AI systems in general. And in a report published by Pega, only 25% of consumers said they'd trust a decision made by an AI system regarding a qualification for a bank loan, for example.


Fast Approximation of the Sliced-Wasserstein Distance Using Concentration of Random Projections

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Sliced-Wasserstein distance (SW) is being increasingly used in machine learning applications as an alternative to the Wasserstein distance and offers significant computational and statistical benefits. Since it is defined as an expectation over random projections, SW is commonly approximated by Monte Carlo. We adopt a new perspective to approximate SW by making use of the concentration of measure phenomenon: under mild assumptions, one-dimensional projections of a high-dimensional random vector are approximately Gaussian. Based on this observation, we develop a simple deterministic approximation for SW. Our method does not require sampling a number of random projections, and is therefore both accurate and easy to use compared to the usual Monte Carlo approximation. We derive nonasymptotical guarantees for our approach, and show that the approximation error goes to zero as the dimension increases, under a weak dependence condition on the data distribution. We validate our theoretical findings on synthetic datasets, and illustrate the proposed approximation on a generative modeling problem.


Learning Task Informed Abstractions

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current model-based reinforcement learning methods struggle when operating from complex visual scenes due to their inability to prioritize task-relevant features. To mitigate this problem, we propose learning Task Informed Abstractions (TIA) that explicitly separates reward-correlated visual features from distractors. For learning TIA, we introduce the formalism of Task Informed MDP (TiMDP) that is realized by training two models that learn visual features via cooperative reconstruction, but one model is adversarially dissociated from the reward signal. Empirical evaluation shows that TIA leads to significant performance gains over state-of-the-art methods on many visual control tasks where natural and unconstrained visual distractions pose a formidable challenge.


Framework for an Intelligent Affect Aware Smart Home Environment for Elderly People

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The population of elderly people has been increasing at a rapid rate over the last few decades and their population is expected to further increase in the upcoming future. Their increasing population is associated with their increasing needs due to problems like physical disabilities, cognitive issues, weakened memory and disorganized behavior, that elderly people face with increasing age. To reduce their financial burden on the world economy and to enhance their quality of life, it is essential to develop technology-based solutions that are adaptive, assistive and intelligent in nature. Intelligent Affect Aware Systems that can not only analyze but also predict the behavior of elderly people in the context of their day to day interactions with technology in an IoT-based environment, holds immense potential for serving as a long-term solution for improving the user experience of elderly in smart homes. This work therefore proposes the framework for an Intelligent Affect Aware environment for elderly people that can not only analyze the affective components of their interactions but also predict their likely user experience even before they start engaging in any activity in the given smart home environment. This forecasting of user experience would provide scope for enhancing the same, thereby increasing the assistive and adaptive nature of such intelligent systems. To uphold the efficacy of this proposed framework for improving the quality of life of elderly people in smart homes, it has been tested on three datasets and the results are presented and discussed.


oxigen.ai - You don't have to hold your breath watching the markets!

#artificialintelligence

Google Crypto Trading Meme you will know how stressful it can be. To manually trade, you need to invest a lot of time analysing markets and waiting for ideal opportunities to place profitable trades. Much of the Crypto market extreme volatility happens during US and Europe business hours, which is the complete opposite of Australia, so who really wants to stay up all night? Sure some people can do much better manually trading, but what if you could keep your day job to pay for your current lifestyle and on top of that still make a decent passive income using a trading bot while you get your 8 hours sleep then why not? Crypto has introduced a level of innovation and technology that has changed many industries and it is continuing to innovate.


The Ghost Work Behind Artificial Intelligence

#artificialintelligence

An expert on how data and algorithms are changing work responds to Janelle Shane's "The Skeleton Crew." "The Skeleton Crew" asks us to consider two questions. The first is an interesting twist on an age-old thought experiment. But the second is more complicated, because the story invites us to become aware of a very real phenomenon and to consider what, if anything, should be done about the way the world is working for some people. The first question explores what it would mean if our machines, robots, and now artificial intelligences had feelings the way we do. "The Skeleton Crew" offers an interesting twist because the A.I. indeed has feelings just like us, because it is, in fact, us: The A.I. is a group of remote workers faking the operations of a haunted house to make it seem automated and intelligent.


Towards Model-informed Precision Dosing with Expert-in-the-loop Machine Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Machine Learning (ML) and its applications have been transforming our lives but it is also creating issues related to the development of fair, accountable, transparent, and ethical Artificial Intelligence. As the ML models are not fully comprehensible yet, it is obvious that we still need humans to be part of algorithmic decision-making processes. In this paper, we consider a ML framework that may accelerate model learning and improve its interpretability by incorporating human experts into the model learning loop. We propose a novel human-in-the-loop ML framework aimed at dealing with learning problems that the cost of data annotation is high and the lack of appropriate data to model the association between the target tasks and the input features. With an application to precision dosing, our experimental results show that the approach can learn interpretable rules from data and may potentially lower experts' workload by replacing data annotation with rule representation editing. The approach may also help remove algorithmic bias by introducing experts' feedback into the iterative model learning process.