Multivariate time series (MTS) prediction plays a key role in many fields such as finance, energy and transport, where each individual time series corresponds to the data collected from a certain data source, so-called channel. A typical pipeline of building an MTS prediction model (PM) consists of selecting a subset of channels among all available ones, extracting features from the selected channels, and building a PM based on the extracted features, where each component involves certain optimization tasks, i.e., selection of channels, feature extraction (FE) methods, and PMs as well as configuration of the selected FE method and PM. Accordingly, pursuing the best prediction performance corresponds to optimizing the pipeline by solving all of its involved optimization problems. This is a non-trivial task due to the vastness of the solution space. Different from most of the existing works which target at optimizing certain components of the pipeline, we propose a novel evolutionary ensemble learning framework to optimize the entire pipeline in a holistic manner. In this framework, a specific pipeline is encoded as a candidate solution and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is applied under different population sizes to produce multiple Pareto optimal sets (POSs). Finally, selective ensemble learning is designed to choose the optimal subset of solutions from the POSs and combine them to yield final prediction by using greedy sequential selection and least square methods. We implement the proposed framework and evaluate our implementation on two real-world applications, i.e., electricity consumption prediction and air quality prediction. The performance comparison with state-of-the-art techniques demonstrates the superiority of the proposed approach.

Signed networks are such social networks having both positive and negative links. A lot of theories and algorithms have been developed to model such networks (e.g., balance theory). However, previous work mainly focuses on the unipartite signed networks where the nodes have the same type. Signed bipartite networks are different from classical signed networks, which contain two different node sets and signed links between two node sets. Signed bipartite networks can be commonly found in many fields including business, politics, and academics, but have been less studied. In this work, we firstly define the signed relationship of the same set of nodes and provide a new perspective for analyzing signed bipartite networks. Then we do some comprehensive analysis of balance theory from two perspectives on several real-world datasets. Specifically, in the peer review dataset, we find that the ratio of balanced isomorphism in signed bipartite networks increased after rebuttal phases. Guided by these two perspectives, we propose a novel Signed Bipartite Graph Neural Networks (SBGNNs) to learn node embeddings for signed bipartite networks. SBGNNs follow most GNNs message-passing scheme, but we design new message functions, aggregation functions, and update functions for signed bipartite networks. We validate the effectiveness of our model on four real-world datasets on Link Sign Prediction task, which is the main machine learning task for signed networks. Experimental results show that our SBGNN model achieves significant improvement compared with strong baseline methods, including feature-based methods and network embedding methods.

For many learning problems one may not have access to fine grained label information; e.g., an image can be labeled as husky, dog, or even animal depending on the expertise of the annotator. In this work, we formalize these settings and study the problem of learning from such coarse data. Instead of observing the actual labels from a set $\mathcal{Z}$, we observe coarse labels corresponding to a partition of $\mathcal{Z}$ (or a mixture of partitions). Our main algorithmic result is that essentially any problem learnable from fine grained labels can also be learned efficiently when the coarse data are sufficiently informative. We obtain our result through a generic reduction for answering Statistical Queries (SQ) over fine grained labels given only coarse labels. The number of coarse labels required depends polynomially on the information distortion due to coarsening and the number of fine labels $|\mathcal{Z}|$. We also investigate the case of (infinitely many) real valued labels focusing on a central problem in censored and truncated statistics: Gaussian mean estimation from coarse data. We provide an efficient algorithm when the sets in the partition are convex and establish that the problem is NP-hard even for very simple non-convex sets.

Manifold learning methods are an invaluable tool in today's world of increasingly huge datasets. Manifold learning algorithms can discover a much lower-dimensional representation (embedding) of a high-dimensional dataset through non-linear transformations that preserve the most important structure of the original data. State-of-the-art manifold learning methods directly optimise an embedding without mapping between the original space and the discovered embedded space. This makes interpretability - a key requirement in exploratory data analysis - nearly impossible. Recently, genetic programming has emerged as a very promising approach to manifold learning by evolving functional mappings from the original space to an embedding. However, genetic programming-based manifold learning has struggled to match the performance of other approaches. In this work, we propose a new approach to using genetic programming for manifold learning, which preserves local topology. This is expected to significantly improve performance on tasks where local neighbourhood structure (topology) is paramount. We compare our proposed approach with various baseline manifold learning methods and find that it often outperforms other methods, including a clear improvement over previous genetic programming approaches. These results are particularly promising, given the potential interpretability and reusability of the evolved mappings.

Access to labeled time series data is often limited in the real world, which constrains the performance of deep learning models in the field of time series analysis. Data augmentation is an effective way to solve the problem of small sample size and imbalance in time series datasets. The two key factors of data augmentation are the distance metric and the choice of interpolation method. SMOTE does not perform well on time series data because it uses a Euclidean distance metric and interpolates directly on the object. Therefore, we propose a DTW-based synthetic minority oversampling technique using siamese encoder for interpolation named DTWSSE. In order to reasonably measure the distance of the time series, DTW, which has been verified to be an effective method forts, is employed as the distance metric. To adapt the DTW metric, we use an autoencoder trained in an unsupervised self-training manner for interpolation. The encoder is a Siamese Neural Network for mapping the time series data from the DTW hidden space to the Euclidean deep feature space, and the decoder is used to map the deep feature space back to the DTW hidden space. We validate the proposed methods on a number of different balanced or unbalanced time series datasets. Experimental results show that the proposed method can lead to better performance of the downstream deep learning model.

A rainfall-runoff model predicts surface runoff either using a physically-based approach or using a systems-based approach. Takagi-Sugeno (TS) Fuzzy models are systems-based approaches and a popular modeling choice for hydrologists in recent decades due to several advantages and improved accuracy in prediction over other existing models. In this paper, we propose a new rainfall-runoff model developed using Gustafson-Kessel (GK) clustering-based TS Fuzzy model. We present comparative performance measures of GK algorithms with two other clustering algorithms: (i) Fuzzy C-Means (FCM), and (ii)Subtractive Clustering (SC). Our proposed TS Fuzzy model predicts surface runoff using: (i) observed rainfall in a drainage basin and (ii) previously observed precipitation flow in the basin outlet. The proposed model is validated using the rainfall-runoff data collected from the sensors installed on the campus of the Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur. The optimal number of rules of the proposed model is obtained by different validation indices. A comparative study of four performance criteria: RootMean Square Error (RMSE), Coefficient of Efficiency (CE), Volumetric Error (VE), and Correlation Coefficient of Determination(R) have been quantitatively demonstrated for each clustering algorithm.

Knowledge graph completion (KGC) has become a focus of attention across deep learning community owing to its excellent contribution to numerous downstream tasks. Although recently have witnessed a surge of work on KGC, they are still insufficient to accurately capture complex relations, since they adopt the single and static representations. In this work, we propose a novel Disentangled Knowledge Graph Attention Network (DisenKGAT) for KGC, which leverages both micro-disentanglement and macro-disentanglement to exploit representations behind Knowledge graphs (KGs). To achieve micro-disentanglement, we put forward a novel relation-aware aggregation to learn diverse component representation. For macro-disentanglement, we leverage mutual information as a regularization to enhance independence. With the assistance of disentanglement, our model is able to generate adaptive representations in terms of the given scenario. Besides, our work has strong robustness and flexibility to adapt to various score functions. Extensive experiments on public benchmark datasets have been conducted to validate the superiority of DisenKGAT over existing methods in terms of both accuracy and explainability.

Social media such as Instagram and Twitter have become important platforms for marketing and selling illicit drugs. Detection of online illicit drug trafficking has become critical to combat the online trade of illicit drugs. However, the legal status often varies spatially and temporally; even for the same drug, federal and state legislation can have different regulations about its legality. Meanwhile, more drug trafficking events are disguised as a novel form of advertising commenting leading to information heterogeneity. Accordingly, accurate detection of illicit drug trafficking events (IDTEs) from social media has become even more challenging. In this work, we conduct the first systematic study on fine-grained detection of IDTEs on Instagram. We propose to take a deep multimodal multilabel learning (DMML) approach to detect IDTEs and demonstrate its effectiveness on a newly constructed dataset called multimodal IDTE(MM-IDTE). Specifically, our model takes text and image data as the input and combines multimodal information to predict multiple labels of illicit drugs. Inspired by the success of BERT, we have developed a self-supervised multimodal bidirectional transformer by jointly fine-tuning pretrained text and image encoders. We have constructed a large-scale dataset MM-IDTE with manually annotated multiple drug labels to support fine-grained detection of illicit drugs. Extensive experimental results on the MM-IDTE dataset show that the proposed DMML methodology can accurately detect IDTEs even in the presence of special characters and style changes attempting to evade detection.

We study the problem of query attribute value extraction, which aims to identify named entities from user queries as diverse surface form attribute values and afterward transform them into formally canonical forms. Such a problem consists of two phases: {named entity recognition (NER)} and {attribute value normalization (AVN)}. However, existing works only focus on the NER phase but neglect equally important AVN. To bridge this gap, this paper proposes a unified query attribute value extraction system in e-commerce search named QUEACO, which involves both two phases. Moreover, by leveraging large-scale weakly-labeled behavior data, we further improve the extraction performance with less supervision cost. Specifically, for the NER phase, QUEACO adopts a novel teacher-student network, where a teacher network that is trained on the strongly-labeled data generates pseudo-labels to refine the weakly-labeled data for training a student network. Meanwhile, the teacher network can be dynamically adapted by the feedback of the student's performance on strongly-labeled data to maximally denoise the noisy supervisions from the weak labels. For the AVN phase, we also leverage the weakly-labeled query-to-attribute behavior data to normalize surface form attribute values from queries into canonical forms from products. Extensive experiments on a real-world large-scale E-commerce dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of QUEACO.

In order to model the evolution of user preference, we should learn user/item embeddings based on time-ordered item purchasing sequences, which is defined as Sequential Recommendation (SR) problem. Existing methods leverage sequential patterns to model item transitions. However, most of them ignore crucial temporal collaborative signals, which are latent in evolving user-item interactions and coexist with sequential patterns. Therefore, we propose to unify sequential patterns and temporal collaborative signals to improve the quality of recommendation, which is rather challenging. Firstly, it is hard to simultaneously encode sequential patterns and collaborative signals. Secondly, it is non-trivial to express the temporal effects of collaborative signals. Hence, we design a new framework Temporal Graph Sequential Recommender (TGSRec) upon our defined continuous-time bi-partite graph. We propose a novel Temporal Collaborative Trans-former (TCT) layer in TGSRec, which advances the self-attention mechanism by adopting a novel collaborative attention. TCT layer can simultaneously capture collaborative signals from both users and items, as well as considering temporal dynamics inside sequential patterns. We propagate the information learned fromTCTlayerover the temporal graph to unify sequential patterns and temporal collaborative signals. Empirical results on five datasets show that TGSRec significantly outperforms other baselines, in average up to 22.5% and 22.1%absolute improvements in Recall@10and MRR, respectively.