Prior AI successes in complex games have largely focused on settings with at most hundreds of actions at each decision point. In contrast, Diplomacy is a game with more than 10^20 possible actions per turn. Previous attempts to address games with large branching factors, such as Diplomacy, StarCraft, and Dota, used human data to bootstrap the policy or used handcrafted reward shaping. In this paper, we describe an algorithm for action exploration and equilibrium approximation in games with combinatorial action spaces. This algorithm simultaneously performs value iteration while learning a policy proposal network. A double oracle step is used to explore additional actions to add to the policy proposals. At each state, the target state value and policy for the model training are computed via an equilibrium search procedure. Using this algorithm, we train an agent, DORA, completely from scratch for a popular two-player variant of Diplomacy and show that it achieves superhuman performance. Additionally, we extend our methods to full-scale no-press Diplomacy and for the first time train an agent from scratch with no human data. We present evidence that this agent plays a strategy that is incompatible with human-data bootstrapped agents. This presents the first strong evidence of multiple equilibria in Diplomacy and suggests that self play alone may be insufficient for achieving superhuman performance in Diplomacy.

Deep neural networks (DNN) can achieve high performance when applied to In-Distribution (ID) data which come from the same distribution as the training set. When presented with anomaly inputs not from the ID, the outputs of a DNN should be regarded as meaningless. However, modern DNN often predict anomaly inputs as an ID class with high confidence, which is dangerous and misleading. In this work, we consider three classes of anomaly inputs, (1) natural inputs from a different distribution than the DNN is trained for, known as Out-of-Distribution (OOD) samples, (2) crafted inputs generated from ID by attackers, often known as adversarial (AD) samples, and (3) noise (NS) samples generated from meaningless data. We propose a framework that aims to detect all these anomalies for a pre-trained DNN. Unlike some of the existing works, our method does not require preprocessing of input data, nor is it dependent to any known OOD set or adversarial attack algorithm. Through extensive experiments over a variety of DNN models for the detection of aforementioned anomalies, we show that in most cases our method outperforms state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods in identifying all three classes of anomalies.

A "bigger is better" explosion in the number of parameters in deep neural networks has made it increasingly challenging to make state-of-the-art networks accessible in compute-restricted environments. Compression techniques have taken on renewed importance as a way to bridge the gap. However, evaluation of the trade-offs incurred by popular compression techniques has been centered on high-resource datasets. In this work, we instead consider the impact of compression in a data-limited regime. We introduce the term low-resource double bind to refer to the co-occurrence of data limitations and compute resource constraints. This is a common setting for NLP for low-resource languages, yet the trade-offs in performance are poorly studied. Our work offers surprising insights into the relationship between capacity and generalization in data-limited regimes for the task of machine translation. Our experiments on magnitude pruning for translations from English into Yoruba, Hausa, Igbo and German show that in low-resource regimes, sparsity preserves performance on frequent sentences but has a disparate impact on infrequent ones. However, it improves robustness to out-of-distribution shifts, especially for datasets that are very distinct from the training distribution. Our findings suggest that sparsity can play a beneficial role at curbing memorization of low frequency attributes, and therefore offers a promising solution to the low-resource double bind.

In power systems, one wishes to regulate the aggregate demand of an ensemble of distributed energy resources (DERs), such as controllable loads and battery energy storage systems. We suggest a notion of predictability and fairness, which suggests that the long-term averages of prices or incentives offered should be independent of the initial states of the operators of the DER, the aggregator, and the power grid. We show that this notion cannot be guaranteed with many traditional controllers used by the load aggregator, including the usual proportional-integral (PI) controller. We show that even considering the non-linearity of the alternating-current model, this notion of predictability and fairness can be guaranteed for incrementally input-to-state stable (iISS) controllers, under mild assumptions.

In recent years, Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have achieved great success in learning from graph-structured data. With the growing tendency of graph nodes and edges, GCN training by single processor cannot meet the demand for time and memory, which led to a boom into distributed GCN training frameworks research. However, existing distributed GCN training frameworks require enormous communication costs between processors since multitudes of dependent nodes and edges information need to be collected and transmitted for GCN training from other processors. To address this issue, we propose a Graph Augmentation based Distributed GCN framework(GAD). In particular, GAD has two main components, GAD-Partition and GAD-Optimizer. We first propose a graph augmentation-based partition (GAD-Partition) that can divide original graph into augmented subgraphs to reduce communication by selecting and storing as few significant nodes of other processors as possible while guaranteeing the accuracy of the training. In addition, we further design a subgraph variance-based importance calculation formula and propose a novel weighted global consensus method, collectively referred to as GAD-Optimizer. This optimizer adaptively reduces the importance of subgraphs with large variances for the purpose of reducing the effect of extra variance introduced by GAD-Partition on distributed GCN training. Extensive experiments on four large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework significantly reduces the communication overhead (50%), improves the convergence speed (2X) of distributed GCN training, and slight gain in accuracy (0.45%) based on minimal redundancy compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

Transfer Learning (TL) is an efficient machine learning paradigm that allows overcoming some of the hurdles that characterize the successful training of deep neural networks, ranging from long training times to the needs of large datasets. While exploiting TL is a well established and successful training practice in Supervised Learning (SL), its applicability in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) is rarer. In this paper, we study the level of transferability of three different variants of Deep-Q Networks on popular DRL benchmarks as well as on a set of novel, carefully designed control tasks. Our results show that transferring neural networks in a DRL context can be particularly challenging and is a process which in most cases results in negative transfer. In the attempt of understanding why Deep-Q Networks transfer so poorly, we gain novel insights into the training dynamics that characterizes this family of algorithms. Over the last years, the marriage between Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms and deep neural networks, commonly denoted as Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) [François-Lavet et al., 2018] has gained tremendous attention [Henderson et al., 2018]. Neural networks have, in fact, proven to be extremely successful both in a model-free RL setting as in a model-based one.

Recently, Transformer has become a prevailing deep architecture for solving vehicle routing problems (VRPs). However, it is less effective in learning improvement models for VRP because its positional encoding (PE) method is not suitable in representing VRP solutions. This paper presents a novel Dual-Aspect Collaborative Transformer (DACT) to learn embeddings for the node and positional features separately, instead of fusing them together as done in existing ones, so as to avoid potential noises and incompatible correlations. Moreover, the positional features are embedded through a novel cyclic positional encoding (CPE) method to allow Transformer to effectively capture the circularity and symmetry of VRP solutions (i.e., cyclic sequences). We train DACT using Proximal Policy Optimization and design a curriculum learning strategy for better sample efficiency. We apply DACT to solve the traveling salesman problem (TSP) and capacitated vehicle routing problem (CVRP). Results show that our DACT outperforms existing Transformer based improvement models, and exhibits much better generalization performance across different problem sizes on synthetic and benchmark instances, respectively.

Heterogeneity and irregularity of multi-source data sets present a significant challenge to time-series analysis. In the literature, the fusion of multi-source time-series has been achieved either by using ensemble learning models which ignore temporal patterns and correlation within features or by defining a fixed-size window to select specific parts of the data sets. On the other hand, many studies have shown major improvement to handle the irregularity of time-series, yet none of these studies has been applied to multi-source data. In this work, we design a novel architecture, PIETS, to model heterogeneous time-series. PIETS has the following characteristics: (1) irregularity encoders for multi-source samples that can leverage all available information and accelerate the convergence of the model; (2) parallelised neural networks to enable flexibility and avoid information overwhelming; and (3) attention mechanism that highlights different information and gives high importance to the most related data. Through extensive experiments on real-world data sets related to COVID-19, we show that the proposed architecture is able to effectively model heterogeneous temporal data and outperforms other state-of-the-art approaches in the prediction task.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve a set of weights or models, for instance via ensembling or Monte Carlo Dropout. These techniques usually produce overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they admit "what they don't know" and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting. Finally, we survey the application of the same paradigm to regression problems. We also provide a reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the mentioned approaches compared to existing ones and provide the most central theoretical results in order to inform future research.

The training of sparse neural networks is becoming an increasingly important tool for reducing the computational footprint of models at training and evaluation, as well enabling the effective scaling up of models. Whereas much work over the years has been dedicated to specialised pruning techniques, little attention has been paid to the inherent effect of gradient based training on model sparsity. In this work, we introduce Powerpropagation, a new weight-parameterisation for neural networks that leads to inherently sparse models. Exploiting the behaviour of gradient descent, our method gives rise to weight updates exhibiting a "rich get richer" dynamic, leaving low-magnitude parameters largely unaffected by learning. Models trained in this manner exhibit similar performance, but have a distribution with markedly higher density at zero, allowing more parameters to be pruned safely. Powerpropagation is general, intuitive, cheap and straight-forward to implement and can readily be combined with various other techniques. To highlight its versatility, we explore it in two very different settings: Firstly, following a recent line of work, we investigate its effect on sparse training for resource-constrained settings. Here, we combine Powerpropagation with a traditional weight-pruning technique as well as recent state-of-the-art sparse-to-sparse algorithms, showing superior performance on the ImageNet benchmark. Secondly, we advocate the use of sparsity in overcoming catastrophic forgetting, where compressed representations allow accommodating a large number of tasks at fixed model capacity. In all cases our reparameterisation considerably increases the efficacy of the off-the-shelf methods.