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Hydroclimatic time series features at multiple time scales

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A comprehensive understanding of the behaviours of the various geophysical processes requires, among others, detailed investigations across temporal scales. In this work, we propose a new time series feature compilation for advancing and enriching such investigations in a hydroclimatic context. This specific compilation can facilitate largely interpretable feature investigations and comparisons in terms of temporal dependence, temporal variation, "forecastability", lumpiness, stability, nonlinearity (and linearity), trends, spikiness, curvature and seasonality. Detailed quantifications and multifaceted characterizations are herein obtained by computing the values of the proposed feature compilation across nine temporal resolutions (i.e., the 1-day, 2-day, 3-day, 7-day, 0.5-month, 1-month, 2-month, 3-month and 6-month ones) and three hydroclimatic time series types (i.e., temperature, precipitation and streamflow) for 34-year-long time series records originating from 511 geographical locations across the continental United States. Based on the acquired information and knowledge, similarities and differences between the examined time series types with respect to the evolution patterns characterizing their feature values with increasing (or decreasing) temporal resolution are identified. To our view, the similarities in these patterns are rather surprising. We also find that the spatial patterns emerging from feature-based time series clustering are largely analogous across temporal scales, and compare the features with respect to their usefulness in clustering the time series at the various temporal resolutions. For most of the features, this usefulness can vary to a notable degree across temporal resolutions and time series types, thereby pointing out the need for conducting multifaceted time series characterizations for the study of hydroclimatic similarity.


Learning Large-scale Network Embedding from Representative Subgraph

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of large-scale network embedding, which aims to learn low-dimensional latent representations for network mining applications. Recent research in the field of network embedding has led to significant progress such as DeepWalk, LINE, NetMF, NetSMF. However, the huge size of many real-world networks makes it computationally expensive to learn network embedding from the entire network. In this work, we present a novel network embedding method called "NES", which learns network embedding from a small representative subgraph. NES leverages theories from graph sampling to efficiently construct representative subgraph with smaller size which can be used to make inferences about the full network, enabling significantly improved efficiency in embedding learning. Then, NES computes the network embedding from this representative subgraph, efficiently. Compared with well-known methods, extensive experiments on networks of various scales and types demonstrate that NES achieves comparable performance and significant efficiency superiority.


Why Calibration Error is Wrong Given Model Uncertainty: Using Posterior Predictive Checks with Deep Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Within the last few years, there has been a move towards using statistical models in conjunction with neural networks with the end goal of being able to better answer the question, "what do our models know?". From this trend, classical metrics such as Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) and new metrics such as calibration error have entered the general repertoire of model evaluation in order to gain better insight into how the uncertainty of our model compares to reality. One important component of uncertainty modeling is model uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty), a measurement of what the model does and does not know. However, current evaluation techniques tends to conflate model uncertainty with aleatoric uncertainty (irreducible error), leading to incorrect conclusions. In this paper, using posterior predictive checks, we show how calibration error and its variants are almost always incorrect to use given model uncertainty, and further show how this mistake can lead to trust in bad models and mistrust in good models. Though posterior predictive checks has often been used for in-sample evaluation of Bayesian models, we show it still has an important place in the modern deep learning world.


Residual Pathway Priors for Soft Equivariance Constraints

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There is often a trade-off between building deep learning systems that are expressive enough to capture the nuances of the reality, and having the right inductive biases for efficient learning. We introduce Residual Pathway Priors (RPPs) as a method for converting hard architectural constraints into soft priors, guiding models towards structured solutions, while retaining the ability to capture additional complexity. Using RPPs, we construct neural network priors with inductive biases for equivariances, but without limiting flexibility. We show that RPPs are resilient to approximate or misspecified symmetries, and are as effective as fully constrained models even when symmetries are exact. We showcase the broad applicability of RPPs with dynamical systems, tabular data, and reinforcement learning. In Mujoco locomotion tasks, where contact forces and directional rewards violate strict equivariance assumptions, the RPP outperforms baseline model-free RL agents, and also improves the learned transition models for model-based RL.


Self-Training of Halfspaces with Generalization Guarantees under Massart Mislabeling Noise Model

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We investigate the generalization properties of a self-training algorithm with halfspaces. The approach learns a list of halfspaces iteratively from labeled and unlabeled training data, in which each iteration consists of two steps: exploration and pruning. In the exploration phase, the halfspace is found sequentially by maximizing the unsigned-margin among unlabeled examples and then assigning pseudo-labels to those that have a distance higher than the current threshold. The pseudo-labeled examples are then added to the training set, and a new classifier is learned. This process is repeated until no more unlabeled examples remain for pseudo-labeling. In the pruning phase, pseudo-labeled samples that have a distance to the last halfspace greater than the associated unsigned-margin are then discarded. We prove that the misclassification error of the resulting sequence of classifiers is bounded and show that the resulting semi-supervised approach never degrades performance compared to the classifier learned using only the initial labeled training set. Experiments carried out on a variety of benchmarks demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed approach compared to state-of-the-art methods.


Indexed Minimum Empirical Divergence for Unimodal Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider a multi-armed bandit problem specified by a set of one-dimensional family exponential distributions endowed with a unimodal structure. We introduce IMED-UB, a algorithm that optimally exploits the unimodal-structure, by adapting to this setting the Indexed Minimum Empirical Divergence (IMED) algorithm introduced by Honda and Takemura [2015]. Owing to our proof technique, we are able to provide a concise finite-time analysis of IMED-UB algorithm. Numerical experiments show that IMED-UB competes with the state-of-the-art algorithms.


LOGEN: Few-shot Logical Knowledge-Conditioned Text Generation with Self-training

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Natural language generation from structured data mainly focuses on surface-level descriptions, suffering from uncontrollable content selection and low fidelity. Previous works leverage logical forms to facilitate logical knowledge-conditioned text generation. Though achieving remarkable progress, they are data-hungry, which makes the adoption for real-world applications challenging with limited data. To this end, this paper proposes a unified framework for logical knowledge-conditioned text generation in the few-shot setting. With only a few seeds logical forms (e.g., 20/100 shot), our approach leverages self-training and samples pseudo logical forms based on content and structure consistency. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach can obtain better few-shot performance than baselines.


How not to Lie with a Benchmark: Rearranging NLP Leaderboards

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Comparison with a human is an essential requirement for a benchmark for it to be a reliable measurement of model capabilities. Nevertheless, the methods for model comparison could have a fundamental flaw - the arithmetic mean of separate metrics is used for all tasks of different complexity, different size of test and training sets. In this paper, we examine popular NLP benchmarks' overall scoring methods and rearrange the models by geometric and harmonic mean (appropriate for averaging rates) according to their reported results. We analyze several popular benchmarks including GLUE, SuperGLUE, XGLUE, and XTREME. The analysis shows that e.g.


Maximum Entropy Model-based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent advances in reinforcement learning have demonstrated its ability to solve hard agent-environment interaction tasks on a super-human level. However, the application of reinforcement learning methods to practical and real-world tasks is currently limited due to most RL state-of-art algorithms' sample inefficiency, i.e., the need for a vast number of training episodes. For example, OpenAI Five algorithm that has beaten human players in Dota 2 has trained for thousands of years of game time. Several approaches exist that tackle the issue of sample inefficiency, that either offers a more efficient usage of already gathered experience or aim to gain a more relevant and diverse experience via a better exploration of an environment. However, to our knowledge, no such approach exists for model-based algorithms, that showed their high sample efficiency in solving hard control tasks with high-dimensional state space. This work connects exploration techniques and model-based reinforcement learning. We have designed a novel exploration method that takes into account features of the model-based approach. We also demonstrate through experiments that our method significantly improves the performance of the model-based algorithm Dreamer.


Risk-Aware Algorithms for Combinatorial Semi-Bandits

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem under semi-bandit feedback. While much work has been done on algorithms that optimize the expected reward for linear as well as some general reward functions, we study a variant of the problem, where the objective is to be risk-aware. More specifically, we consider the problem of maximizing the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), a risk measure that takes into account only the worst-case rewards. We propose new algorithms that maximize the CVaR of the rewards obtained from the super arms of the combinatorial bandit for the two cases of Gaussian and bounded arm rewards. We further analyze these algorithms and provide regret bounds. We believe that our results provide the first theoretical insights into combinatorial semi-bandit problems in the risk-aware case.