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An operational framework to automatically evaluate the quality of weather observations from third-party stations

arXiv.org Machine Learning

With increasing number of crowdsourced private automatic weather stations (called TPAWS) established to fill the gap of official network and obtain local weather information for various purposes, the data quality is a major concern in promoting their usage. Proper quality control and assessment are necessary to reach mutual agreement on the TPAWS observations. To derive near real-time assessment for operational system, we propose a simple, scalable and interpretable framework based on AI/Stats/ML models. The framework constructs separate models for individual data from official sources and then provides the final assessment by fusing the individual models. The performance of our proposed framework is evaluated by synthetic data and demonstrated by applying it to a re-al TPAWS network.


Automata Learning meets Shielding

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Safety is still one of the major research challenges in reinforcement learning (RL). In this paper, we address the problem of how to avoid safety violations of RL agents during exploration in probabilistic and partially unknown environments. Our approach combines automata learning for Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) and shield synthesis in an iterative approach. Initially, the MDP representing the environment is unknown. The agent starts exploring the environment and collects traces. From the collected traces, we passively learn MDPs that abstractly represent the safety-relevant aspects of the environment. Given a learned MDP and a safety specification, we construct a shield. For each state-action pair within a learned MDP, the shield computes exact probabilities on how likely it is that executing the action results in violating the specification from the current state within the next $k$ steps. After the shield is constructed, the shield is used during runtime and blocks any actions that induce a too large risk from the agent. The shielded agent continues to explore the environment and collects new data on the environment. Iteratively, we use the collected data to learn new MDPs with higher accuracy, resulting in turn in shields able to prevent more safety violations. We implemented our approach and present a detailed case study of a Q-learning agent exploring slippery Gridworlds. In our experiments, we show that as the agent explores more and more of the environment during training, the improved learned models lead to shields that are able to prevent many safety violations.


Device identification using optimized digital footprints

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The rapidly increasing number of internet of things (IoT) and non-IoT devices has imposed new security challenges to network administrators. Accurate device identification in the increasingly complex network structures is necessary. In this paper, a device fingerprinting (DFP) method has been proposed for device identification, based on digital footprints, which devices use for communication over a network. A subset of nine features have been selected from the network and transport layers of a single transmission control protocol/internet protocol packet based on attribute evaluators in Weka, to generate device-specific signatures. The method has been evaluated on two online datasets, and an experimental dataset, using different supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms. Results have shown that the method is able to distinguish device type with up to 100% precision using the random forest (RF) classifier, and classify individual devices with up to 95.7% precision. These results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed DFP method for device identification, in order to provide a more secure and robust network.


Online Shielding for Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Besides the recent impressive results on reinforcement learning (RL), safety is still one of the major research challenges in RL. RL is a machine-learning approach to determine near-optimal policies in Markov decision processes (MDPs). In this paper, we consider the setting where the safety-relevant fragment of the MDP together with a temporal logic safety specification is given and many safety violations can be avoided by planning ahead a short time into the future. We propose an approach for online safety shielding of RL agents. During runtime, the shield analyses the safety of each available action. For any action, the shield computes the maximal probability to not violate the safety specification within the next $k$ steps when executing this action. Based on this probability and a given threshold, the shield decides whether to block an action from the agent. Existing offline shielding approaches compute exhaustively the safety of all state-action combinations ahead of time, resulting in huge computation times and large memory consumption. The intuition behind online shielding is to compute at runtime the set of all states that could be reached in the near future. For each of these states, the safety of all available actions is analysed and used for shielding as soon as one of the considered states is reached. Our approach is well suited for high-level planning problems where the time between decisions can be used for safety computations and it is sustainable for the agent to wait until these computations are finished. For our evaluation, we selected a 2-player version of the classical computer game SNAKE. The game represents a high-level planning problem that requires fast decisions and the multiplayer setting induces a large state space, which is computationally expensive to analyse exhaustively.


Retrieval as Attention: End-to-end Learning of Retrieval and Reading within a Single Transformer

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Systems for knowledge-intensive tasks such as open-domain question answering (QA) usually consist of two stages: efficient retrieval of relevant documents from a large corpus and detailed reading of the selected documents to generate answers. Retrievers and readers are usually modeled separately, which necessitates a cumbersome implementation and is hard to train and adapt in an end-to-end fashion. In this paper, we revisit this design and eschew the separate architecture and training in favor of a single Transformer that performs Retrieval as Attention (ReAtt), and end-to-end training solely based on supervision from the end QA task. We demonstrate for the first time that a single model trained end-to-end can achieve both competitive retrieval and QA performance, matching or slightly outperforming state-of-the-art separately trained retrievers and readers. Moreover, end-to-end adaptation significantly boosts its performance on out-of-domain datasets in both supervised and unsupervised settings, making our model a simple and adaptable solution for knowledge-intensive tasks. Code and models are available at https://github.com/jzbjyb/ReAtt.


Understanding How Model Size Affects Few-shot Instruction Prompting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large Language Models are affected by the phenomena of memorizing and forgetting their training data. But how do these vary by model size? We work towards this question by investigating how the model size affects the model's ability to discriminate a word's meaning in a given context. We introduce a dataset called DeltaWords, which evaluates a model's ability to follow instructions to select a sentence which replaces the target word with its antonym. We show a weak inverse scaling trend, where task accuracy degrades as model size increase, under extremely few-shot prompting regimes. We show that increasing the number of examples tend to disproportionately benefit larger models than smaller models.


Building Metadata Inference Using a Transducer Based Language Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Solving the challenges of automatic machine translation of Building Automation System text metadata is a crucial first step in efficiently deploying smart building applications. The vocabulary used to describe building metadata appears small compared to general natural languages, but each term has multiple commonly used abbreviations. Conventional machine learning techniques are inefficient since they need to learn many different forms for the same word, and large amounts of data must be used to train these models. It is also difficult to apply standard techniques such as tokenisation since this commonly results in multiple output tags being associated with a single input token, something traditional sequence labelling models do not allow. Finite State Transducers can model sequence-to-sequence tasks where the input and output sequences are different lengths, and they can be combined with language models to ensure a valid output sequence is generated. We perform a preliminary analysis into the use of transducer-based language models to parse and normalise building point metadata.


Grounded Keys-to-Text Generation: Towards Factual Open-Ended Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large pre-trained language models have recently enabled open-ended generation frameworks (e.g., prompt-to-text NLG) to tackle a variety of tasks going beyond the traditional data-to-text generation. While this framework is more general, it is under-specified and often leads to a lack of controllability restricting their real-world usage. We propose a new grounded keys-to-text generation task: the task is to generate a factual description about an entity given a set of guiding keys, and grounding passages. To address this task, we introduce a new dataset, called EntDeGen. Inspired by recent QA-based evaluation measures, we propose an automatic metric, MAFE, for factual correctness of generated descriptions. Our EntDescriptor model is equipped with strong rankers to fetch helpful passages and generate entity descriptions. Experimental result shows a good correlation (60.14) between our proposed metric and human judgments of factuality. Our rankers significantly improved the factual correctness of generated descriptions (15.95% and 34.51% relative gains in recall and precision). Finally, our ablation study highlights the benefit of combining keys and groundings.


PreQuEL: Quality Estimation of Machine Translation Outputs in Advance

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We present the task of PreQuEL, Pre-(Quality-Estimation) Learning. A PreQuEL system predicts how well a given sentence will be translated, without recourse to the actual translation, thus eschewing unnecessary resource allocation when translation quality is bound to be low. PreQuEL can be defined relative to a given MT system (e.g., some industry service) or generally relative to the state-of-the-art. From a theoretical perspective, PreQuEL places the focus on the source text, tracing properties, possibly linguistic features, that make a sentence harder to machine translate. We develop a baseline model for the task and analyze its performance. We also develop a data augmentation method (from parallel corpora), that improves results substantially. We show that this augmentation method can improve the performance of the Quality-Estimation task as well. We investigate the properties of the input text that our model is sensitive to, by testing it on challenge sets and different languages. We conclude that it is aware of syntactic and semantic distinctions, and correlates and even over-emphasizes the importance of standard NLP features.


Ballot Length in Instant Runoff Voting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Instant runoff voting (IRV) is an increasingly-popular alternative to traditional plurality voting in which voters submit rankings over the candidates rather than single votes. In practice, elections using IRV often restrict the ballot length, the number of candidates a voter is allowed to rank on their ballot. We theoretically and empirically analyze how ballot length can influence the outcome of an election, given fixed voter preferences. We show that there exist preference profiles over $k$ candidates such that up to $k-1$ different candidates win at different ballot lengths. We derive exact lower bounds on the number of voters required for such profiles and provide a construction matching the lower bound for unrestricted voter preferences. Additionally, we characterize which sequences of winners are possible over ballot lengths and provide explicit profile constructions achieving any feasible winner sequence. We also examine how classic preference restrictions influence our results--for instance, single-peakedness makes $k-1$ different winners impossible but still allows at least $\Omega(\sqrt k)$. Finally, we analyze a collection of 168 real-world elections, where we truncate rankings to simulate shorter ballots. We find that shorter ballots could have changed the outcome in one quarter of these elections. Our results highlight ballot length as a consequential degree of freedom in the design of IRV elections.