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Spatial-Temporal Meta-path Guided Explainable Crime Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Exposure to crime and violence can harm individuals' quality of life and the economic growth of communities. In light of the rapid development in machine learning, there is a rise in the need to explore automated solutions to prevent crimes. With the increasing availability of both fine-grained urban and public service data, there is a recent surge in fusing such cross-domain information to facilitate crime prediction. By capturing the information about social structure, environment, and crime trends, existing machine learning predictive models have explored the dynamic crime patterns from different views. However, these approaches mostly convert such multi-source knowledge into implicit and latent representations (e.g., learned embeddings of districts), making it still a challenge to investigate the impacts of explicit factors for the occurrences of crimes behind the scenes. In this paper, we present a Spatial-Temporal Metapath guided Explainable Crime prediction (STMEC) framework to capture dynamic patterns of crime behaviours and explicitly characterize how the environmental and social factors mutually interact to produce the forecasts. Extensive experiments show the superiority of STMEC compared with other advanced spatiotemporal models, especially in predicting felonies (e.g., robberies and assaults with dangerous weapons).


Pseudo AI Bias

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Pseudo Artificial Intelligence bias (PAIB) is broadly disseminated in the literature, which can result in unnecessary AI fear in society, exacerbate the enduring inequities and disparities in access to and sharing the benefits of AI applications, and waste social capital invested in AI research. This study systematically reviews publications in the literature to present three types of PAIBs identified due to: a) misunderstandings, b) pseudo mechanical bias, and c) over-expectations. We discussed the consequences of and solutions to PAIBs, including certifying users for AI applications to mitigate AI fears, providing customized user guidance for AI applications, and developing systematic approaches to monitor bias. We concluded that PAIB due to misunderstandings, pseudo mechanical bias, and over-expectations of algorithmic predictions is socially harmful.


Towards Proactively Forecasting Sentence-Specific Information Popularity within Online News Documents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multiple studies have focused on predicting the prospective popularity of an online document as a whole, without paying attention to the contributions of its individual parts. We introduce the task of proactively forecasting popularities of sentences within online news documents solely utilizing their natural language content. We model sentence-specific popularity forecasting as a sequence regression task. For training our models, we curate InfoPop, the first dataset containing popularity labels for over 1.7 million sentences from over 50,000 online news documents. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dataset automatically created using streams of incoming search engine queries to generate sentence-level popularity annotations. We propose a novel transfer learning approach involving sentence salience prediction as an auxiliary task. Our proposed technique coupled with a BERT-based neural model exceeds nDCG values of 0.8 for proactive sentence-specific popularity forecasting. Notably, our study presents a non-trivial takeaway: though popularity and salience are different concepts, transfer learning from salience prediction enhances popularity forecasting. We release InfoPop and make our code publicly available: https://github.com/sayarghoshroy/InfoPopularity


Application Of ADNN For Background Subtraction In Smart Surveillance System

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Object movement identification is one of the most researched problems in the field of computer vision. In this task, we try to classify a pixel as foreground or background. Even though numerous traditional machine learning and deep learning methods already exist for this problem, the two major issues with most of them are the need for large amounts of ground truth data and their inferior performance on unseen videos. Since every pixel of every frame has to be labeled, acquiring large amounts of data for these techniques gets rather expensive. Recently, Zhao et al. [1] proposed one of a kind Arithmetic Distribution Neural Network (ADNN) for universal background subtraction which utilizes probability information from the histogram of temporal pixels and achieves promising results. Building onto this work, we developed an intelligent video surveillance system that uses ADNN architecture for motion detection, trims the video with parts only containing motion, and performs anomaly detection on the trimmed video.


Computational Charisma -- A Brick by Brick Blueprint for Building Charismatic Artificial Intelligence

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Charisma is considered as one's ability to attract and potentially also influence others. Clearly, there can be considerable interest from an artificial intelligence's (AI) perspective to provide it with such skill. Beyond, a plethora of use cases opens up for computational measurement of human charisma, such as for tutoring humans in the acquisition of charisma, mediating human-to-human conversation, or identifying charismatic individuals in big social data. A number of models exist that base charisma on various dimensions, often following the idea that charisma is given if someone could and would help others. Examples include influence (could help) and affability (would help) in scientific studies or power (could help), presence, and warmth (both would help) as a popular concept. Modelling high levels in these dimensions for humanoid robots or virtual agents, seems accomplishable. Beyond, also automatic measurement appears quite feasible with the recent advances in the related fields of Affective Computing and Social Signal Processing. Here, we, thereforem present a blueprint for building machines that can appear charismatic, but also analyse the charisma of others. To this end, we first provide the psychological perspective including different models of charisma and behavioural cues of it. We then switch to conversational charisma in spoken language as an exemplary modality that is essential for human-human and human-computer conversations. The computational perspective then deals with the recognition and generation of charismatic behaviour by AI. This includes an overview of the state of play in the field and the aforementioned blueprint. We then name exemplary use cases of computational charismatic skills before switching to ethical aspects and concluding this overview and perspective on building charisma-enabled AI.


22 Things That Made the World a Better Place in 2022

WIRED

It seemed as if the world was plunging from one crisis to another this year. Just as most countries broke free from the shackles of the pandemic, the horror of war returned to Europe, millions around the world suffered at the hands of extreme weather, and the double pain of energy shortages and inflation arrived. Here's our rundown of the best news to come out of 2022. More than one-fifth of all electricity in the US now comes from hydropower, wind, and solar, meaning that renewables have narrowly overtaken coal and nuclear, which make up 20 percent and 19 percent of the energy mix respectively. The only other year this was the case was 2020--but back then overall power generation was reduced due to the pandemic.


CLNode: Curriculum Learning for Node Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Node classification is a fundamental graph-based task that aims to predict the classes of unlabeled nodes, for which Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are the state-of-the-art methods. Current GNNs assume that nodes in the training set contribute equally during training. However, the quality of training nodes varies greatly, and the performance of GNNs could be harmed by two types of low-quality training nodes: (1) inter-class nodes situated near class boundaries that lack the typical characteristics of their corresponding classes. Because GNNs are data-driven approaches, training on these nodes could degrade the accuracy. (2) mislabeled nodes. In real-world graphs, nodes are often mislabeled, which can significantly degrade the robustness of GNNs. To mitigate the detrimental effect of the low-quality training nodes, we present CLNode, which employs a selective training strategy to train GNN based on the quality of nodes. Specifically, we first design a multi-perspective difficulty measurer to accurately measure the quality of training nodes. Then, based on the measured qualities, we employ a training scheduler that selects appropriate training nodes to train GNN in each epoch. To evaluate the effectiveness of CLNode, we conduct extensive experiments by incorporating it in six representative backbone GNNs. Experimental results on real-world networks demonstrate that CLNode is a general framework that can be combined with various GNNs to improve their accuracy and robustness.


Adapting the Exploration Rate for Value-of-Information-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, we consider the problem of adjusting the exploration rate when using value-of-information-based exploration. We do this by converting the value-of-information optimization into a problem of finding equilibria of a flow for a changing exploration rate. We then develop an efficient path-following scheme for converging to these equilibria and hence uncovering optimal action-selection policies. Under this scheme, the exploration rate is automatically adapted according to the agent's experiences. Global convergence is theoretically assured. We first evaluate our exploration-rate adaptation on the Nintendo GameBoy games Centipede and Millipede. We demonstrate aspects of the search process, like that it yields a hierarchy of state abstractions. We also show that our approach returns better policies in fewer episodes than conventional search strategies relying on heuristic, annealing-based exploration-rate adjustments. We then illustrate that these trends hold for deep, value-of-information-based agents that learn to play ten simple games and over forty more complicated games for the Nintendo GameBoy system. Performance either near or well above the level of human play is observed.


DGFont++: Robust Deformable Generative Networks for Unsupervised Font Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Automatic font generation without human experts is a practical and significant problem, especially for some languages that consist of a large number of characters. Existing methods for font generation are often in supervised learning. They require a large number of paired data, which are labor-intensive and expensive to collect. In contrast, common unsupervised image-to-image translation methods are not applicable to font generation, as they often define style as the set of textures and colors. In this work, we propose a robust deformable generative network for unsupervised font generation (abbreviated as DGFont++). We introduce a feature deformation skip connection (FDSC) to learn local patterns and geometric transformations between fonts. The FDSC predicts pairs of displacement maps and employs the predicted maps to apply deformable convolution to the low-level content feature maps. The outputs of FDSC are fed into a mixer to generate final results. Moreover, we introduce contrastive self-supervised learning to learn a robust style representation for fonts by understanding the similarity and dissimilarities of fonts. To distinguish different styles, we train our model with a multi-task discriminator, which ensures that each style can be discriminated independently. In addition to adversarial loss, another two reconstruction losses are adopted to constrain the domain-invariant characteristics between generated images and content images. Taking advantage of FDSC and the adopted loss functions, our model is able to maintain spatial information and generates high-quality character images in an unsupervised manner. Experiments demonstrate that our model is able to generate character images of higher quality than state-of-the-art methods.


ComplAI: Theory of A Unified Framework for Multi-factor Assessment of Black-Box Supervised Machine Learning Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The advances in Artificial Intelligence are creating new opportunities to improve lives of people around the world, from business to healthcare, from lifestyle to education. For example, some systems profile the users using their demographic and behavioral characteristics to make certain domain-specific predictions. Often, such predictions impact the life of the user directly or indirectly (e.g., loan disbursement, determining insurance coverage, shortlisting applications, etc.). As a result, the concerns over such AI-enabled systems are also increasing. To address these concerns, such systems are mandated to be responsible i.e., transparent, fair, and explainable to developers and end-users. In this paper, we present ComplAI, a unique framework to enable, observe, analyze and quantify explainability, robustness, performance, fairness, and model behavior in drift scenarios, and to provide a single Trust Factor that evaluates different supervised Machine Learning models not just from their ability to make correct predictions but from overall responsibility perspective. The framework helps users to (a) connect their models and enable explanations, (b) assess and visualize different aspects of the model, such as robustness, drift susceptibility, and fairness, and (c) compare different models (from different model families or obtained through different hyperparameter settings) from an overall perspective thereby facilitating actionable recourse for improvement of the models. It is model agnostic and works with different supervised machine learning scenarios (i.e., Binary Classification, Multi-class Classification, and Regression) and frameworks. It can be seamlessly integrated with any ML life-cycle framework. Thus, this already deployed framework aims to unify critical aspects of Responsible AI systems for regulating the development process of such real systems.