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Epicasting: An Ensemble Wavelet Neural Network (EWNet) for Forecasting Epidemics

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Infectious diseases remain among the top contributors to human illness and death worldwide, among which many diseases produce epidemic waves of infection. The unavailability of specific drugs and ready-to-use vaccines to prevent most of these epidemics makes the situation worse. These force public health officials and policymakers to rely on early warning systems generated by reliable and accurate forecasts of epidemics. Accurate forecasts of epidemics can assist stakeholders in tailoring countermeasures, such as vaccination campaigns, staff scheduling, and resource allocation, to the situation at hand, which could translate to reductions in the impact of a disease. Unfortunately, most of these past epidemics exhibit nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics due to their spreading fluctuations based on seasonal-dependent variability and the nature of these epidemics. We analyse a wide variety of epidemic time series datasets using a maximal overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) based autoregressive neural network and call it EWNet model. MODWT techniques effectively characterize non-stationary behavior and seasonal dependencies in the epidemic time series and improve the nonlinear forecasting scheme of the autoregressive neural network in the proposed ensemble wavelet network framework. From a nonlinear time series viewpoint, we explore the asymptotic stationarity of the proposed EWNet model to show the asymptotic behavior of the associated Markov Chain. We also theoretically investigate the effect of learning stability and the choice of hidden neurons in the proposal. From a practical perspective, we compare our proposed EWNet framework with several statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models. Experimental results show that the proposed EWNet is highly competitive compared to the state-of-the-art epidemic forecasting methods.


Flinders University scientists use biology from insects to build robots with a brain - ABC News

#artificialintelligence

Scientists at a South Australian university are using biology from insects to build robots with a brain โ€“ technology that could become a game changer for police, defence and national security. "I'm giving a robot a brain so it can understand its environment," said Flinders University associate professor for autonomous systems, Dr Russell Brinkworth. His biologically-inspired robots have the ability to not just take a picture of the world, but interpret the surrounding environment and adapt accordingly. "Our current robots work well in structured environments that don't change. That sounds complex โ€“ but they're all the same," Dr Brinkworth said.


AI for an AI: Why ChatGPT Is a Double-Edged Sword for Cybersecurity - CPO Magazine

#artificialintelligence

ChatGPT has answers for almost everything, but there's one answer we may not know for a while: will this tool turn out to be the genie its creators regret taking out of the bottle over unintended consequences in cybersecurity? BlackBerry surveyed 1,500 IT decision makers across North America, UK, and Australia and half (51 percent) predicted we're less than a year away from a cyberattack credited to ChatGPT. Three-quarters of respondents believe foreign states are already using ChatGPT for malicious purposes against other nations. The survey also exposed a perception that, while respondents see ChatGPT as being used for'good' purposes, 73 percent acknowledge its potential threat to cybersecurity and are either very or fairly concerned, proving Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a double-edged sword. The emergence of chatbots and AI-powered tools presents new challenges in cybersecurity, especially when they end up in the wrong hands.


SA-CNN: Application to text categorization issues using simulated annealing-based convolutional neural network optimization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are a representative class of deep learning algorithms including convolutional computation that perform translation-invariant classification of input data based on their hierarchical architecture. However, classical convolutional neural network learning methods use the steepest descent algorithm for training, and the learning performance is greatly influenced by the initial weight settings of the convolutional and fully connected layers, requiring re-tuning to achieve better performance under different model structures and data. Combining the strengths of the simulated annealing algorithm in global search, we propose applying it to the hyperparameter search process in order to increase the effectiveness of convolutional neural networks (CNNs). In this paper, we introduce SA-CNN neural networks for text classification tasks based on Text-CNN neural networks and implement the simulated annealing algorithm for hyperparameter search. Experiments demonstrate that we can achieve greater classification accuracy than earlier models with manual tuning, and the improvement in time and space for exploration relative to human tuning is substantial.


Meta-learning approaches for few-shot learning: A survey of recent advances

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Humans possess the extraordinary capability of learning a new concept even after minimal observation. To a greater extent, a child can distinguish a dog from a cat through a single picture [1]. This critical characteristic of human intelligence lies in the humans' ability to leverage obtained knowledge of prior experiences to unforeseen circumstances with small observation. Unlike the human learning paradigm, traditional machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models train a specific task from scratch through: (a) the training phase in which a model is initiated randomly and then updated, and (b) the test phase in which the model evaluates. While ML and DL have obtained remarkable success in a wide range of applications, they are notorious for requiring a huge number of samples to generalize. In many real-world problems, collecting more data is costly, time-consuming, and even might not feasible due to physical system constraints [2]. Moreover, most ML and DL models presume that training and testing datasets have the same distribution [3]. Thus, their performance suffers under data distribution shifts [4].


Label Distribution Learning from Logical Label

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Label distribution learning (LDL) is an effective method to predict the label description degree (a.k.a. label distribution) of a sample. However, annotating label distribution (LD) for training samples is extremely costly. So recent studies often first use label enhancement (LE) to generate the estimated label distribution from the logical label and then apply external LDL algorithms on the recovered label distribution to predict the label distribution for unseen samples. But this step-wise manner overlooks the possible connections between LE and LDL. Moreover, the existing LE approaches may assign some description degrees to invalid labels. To solve the above problems, we propose a novel method to learn an LDL model directly from the logical label, which unifies LE and LDL into a joint model, and avoids the drawbacks of the previous LE methods. Extensive experiments on various datasets prove that the proposed approach can construct a reliable LDL model directly from the logical label, and produce more accurate label distribution than the state-of-the-art LE methods.


Transferable Deep Learning Power System Short-Term Voltage Stability Assessment with Physics-Informed Topological Feature Engineering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning (DL) algorithms have been widely applied to short-term voltage stability (STVS) assessment in power systems. However, transferring the knowledge learned in one power grid to other power grids with topology changes is still a challenging task. This paper proposed a transferable DL-based model for STVS assessment by constructing the topology-aware voltage dynamic features from raw PMU data. Since the reactive power flow and grid topology are essential to voltage stability, the topology-aware and physics-informed voltage dynamic features are utilized to effectively represent the topological and temporal patterns from post-disturbance system dynamic trajectories. The proposed DL-based STVS assessment model is tested under random operating conditions on the New England 39-bus system. It has 99.99\% classification accuracy of the short-term voltage stability status using the topology-aware and physics-informed voltage dynamic features. In addition to high accuracy, the experiments show good adaptability to PMU errors. Moreover, The proposed STVS assessment method has outstanding performance on new grid topologies after fine-tuning. In particular, the highest accuracy reaches 99.68\% in evaluation, which demonstrates a good knowledge transfer ability of the proposed model for power grid topology change.


A Human Subject Study of Named Entity Recognition (NER) in Conversational Music Recommendation Queries

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We conducted a human subject study of named entity recognition on a noisy corpus of conversational music recommendation queries, with many irregular and novel named entities. We evaluated the human NER linguistic behaviour in these challenging conditions and compared it with the most common NER systems nowadays, fine-tuned transformers. Our goal was to learn about the task to guide the design of better evaluation methods and NER algorithms. The results showed that NER in our context was quite hard for both human and algorithms under a strict evaluation schema; humans had higher precision, while the model higher recall because of entity exposure especially during pre-training; and entity types had different error patterns (e.g. frequent typing errors for artists). The released corpus goes beyond predefined frames of interaction and can support future work in conversational music recommendation.


Forecasting COVID-19 Infections in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries using Machine Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) was declared as a global pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) after it was first discovered in Wuhan, China [1]. Over one year, the virus has infected more than 68 million people worldwide [2]. The virus can be fatal for elderly people or ones with chronic diseases [3]. Different countries across the globe have imposed several social practices and strategies to reduce the spread of the infection and to ensure the well-being of the residents. These practices and strategies include but are not limited to social distancing, restricted and authorized travels, remote work and education, reduced working staff in organizations, and frequent COVID-19 tests. These measures have been proved potential in reducing the disease spread and death in the previous pandemics [3], [4]. Several studies have focused on machine learning time series models to forecast the number of COVID-19 infections in different countries [5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14]. This is to aid the government in designing and regulating efficient virus spread-mitigating strategies and to enable healthcare organizations for effective planning of health personnel and facilities resources. Based on the forecasted infections, the government can either make the confinement laws stricter or can ease them.


Network Anomaly Detection Using Federated Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Due to the veracity and heterogeneity in network traffic, detecting anomalous events is challenging. The computational load on global servers is a significant challenge in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and scalability. Our primary motivation is to introduce a robust and scalable framework that enables efficient network anomaly detection. We address the issue of scalability and efficiency for network anomaly detection by leveraging federated learning, in which multiple participants train a global model jointly. Unlike centralized training architectures, federated learning does not require participants to upload their training data to the server, preventing attackers from exploiting the training data. Moreover, most prior works have focused on traditional centralized machine learning, making federated machine learning under-explored in network anomaly detection. Therefore, we propose a deep neural network framework that could work on low to mid-end devices detecting network anomalies while checking if a request from a specific IP address is malicious or not. Compared to multiple traditional centralized machine learning models, the deep neural federated model reduces training time overhead. The proposed method performs better than baseline machine learning techniques on the UNSW-NB15 data set as measured by experiments conducted with an accuracy of 97.21% and a faster computation time.