This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset and task. Despite their similar performance, such models often exhibit inconsistent or even contradictory explanations for their predictions, posing challenges to end users who rely on these models to make critical decisions. Recognizing this issue, we introduce ensemble methods as an approach to enhance the consistency of the explanations provided in these scenarios. Leveraging insights from recent work on neural network loss landscapes and mode connectivity, we devise ensemble strategies to efficiently explore the underspecification set -- the set of models with performance variations resulting solely from changes in the random seed during training. Experiments on five benchmark financial datasets reveal that ensembling can yield significant improvements when it comes to explanation similarity, and demonstrate the potential of existing ensemble methods to explore the underspecification set efficiently. Our findings highlight the importance of considering model indeterminacy when interpreting explanations and showcase the effectiveness of ensembles in enhancing the reliability of explanations in machine learning.

Does Long-Term Series Forecasting Need Complex Attention and Extra Long Inputs? Abstract--As Transformer-based models have achieved impressive performance on various time series tasks, Long-Term Series Forecasting (LTSF) tasks have also received extensive attention in recent years. However, due to the inherent computational complexity and long sequences demanding of Transformer-based methods, its application on LTSF tasks still has two major issues that need to be further investigated: 1) Whether the sparse attention mechanism designed by these methods actually reduce the running time on real devices; 2) Whether these models need extra long input sequences to guarantee their performance? The answers given in this paper are negative. Meanwhile, a gating mechanism is embedded into Periodformer to regulate the influence of the attention module on the prediction results. This enables Periodformer to have much more powerful and flexible sequence modeling capability with linear computational complexity, which guarantees higher prediction performance and shorter runtime on real devices. Furthermore, to take full advantage of GPUs for fast hyperparameter optimization (e.g., finding the suitable input length), a Multi-GPU Asynchronous parallel algorithm based on Bayesian Optimization (MABO) is presented. MABO allocates a process to each GPU via a queue mechanism, and then creates multiple trials at a time for asynchronous parallel search, which greatly reduces the search time. Experimental results show that Periodformer consistently achieves the best performance on six widely used benchmark datasets.

The current literature on AI-advised decision making -- involving explainable AI systems advising human decision makers -- presents a series of inconclusive and confounding results. To synthesize these findings, we propose a simple theory that elucidates the frequent failure of AI explanations to engender appropriate reliance and complementary decision making performance. We argue explanations are only useful to the extent that they allow a human decision maker to verify the correctness of an AI's prediction, in contrast to other desiderata, e.g., interpretability or spelling out the AI's reasoning process. Prior studies find in many decision making contexts AI explanations do not facilitate such verification. Moreover, most tasks fundamentally do not allow easy verification, regardless of explanation method, limiting the potential benefit of any type of explanation. We also compare the objective of complementary performance with that of appropriate reliance, decomposing the latter into the notions of outcome-graded and strategy-graded reliance.

We present SwissBERT, a masked language model created specifically for processing Switzerland-related text. SwissBERT is a pre-trained model that we adapted to news articles written in the national languages of Switzerland -- German, French, Italian, and Romansh. We evaluate SwissBERT on natural language understanding tasks related to Switzerland and find that it tends to outperform previous models on these tasks, especially when processing contemporary news and/or Romansh Grischun. Since SwissBERT uses language adapters, it may be extended to Swiss German dialects in future work. The model and our open-source code are publicly released at https://github.com/ZurichNLP/swissbert.

Stop words, which are considered non-predictive, are often eliminated in natural language processing tasks. However, the definition of uninformative vocabulary is vague, so most algorithms use general knowledge-based stop lists to remove stop words. There is an ongoing debate among academics about the usefulness of stop word elimination, especially in domain-specific settings. In this work, we investigate the usefulness of stop word removal in a software engineering context. To do this, we replicate and experiment with three software engineering research tools from related work. Additionally, we construct a corpus of software engineering domain-related text from 10,000 Stack Overflow questions and identify 200 domain-specific stop words using traditional information-theoretic methods. Our results show that the use of domain-specific stop words significantly improved the performance of research tools compared to the use of a general stop list and that 17 out of 19 evaluation measures showed better performance. Online appendix: https://zenodo.org/record/7865748

While many parallel corpora are not publicly accessible for data copyright, data privacy and competitive differentiation reasons, trained translation models are increasingly available on open platforms. In this work, we propose a method called continual knowledge distillation to take advantage of existing translation models to improve one model of interest. The basic idea is to sequentially transfer knowledge from each trained model to the distilled model. Extensive experiments on Chinese-English and German-English datasets show that our method achieves significant and consistent improvements over strong baselines under both homogeneous and heterogeneous trained model settings and is robust to malicious models.

In robotics, optimizing controller parameters under safety constraints is an important challenge. Safe Bayesian optimization (BO) quantifies uncertainty in the objective and constraints to safely guide exploration in such settings. Hand-designing a suitable probabilistic model can be challenging, however. In the presence of unknown safety constraints, it is crucial to choose reliable model hyper-parameters to avoid safety violations. Here, we propose a data-driven approach to this problem by meta-learning priors for safe BO from offline data. We build on a meta-learning algorithm, F-PACOH, capable of providing reliable uncertainty quantification in settings of data scarcity. As core contribution, we develop a novel framework for choosing safety-compliant priors in a data-riven manner via empirical uncertainty metrics and a frontier search algorithm. On benchmark functions and a high-precision motion system, we demonstrate that our meta-learned priors accelerate the convergence of safe BO approaches while maintaining safety.

Language models demonstrate both quantitative improvement and new qualitative capabilities with increasing scale. Despite their potentially transformative impact, these new capabilities are as yet poorly characterized. In order to inform future research, prepare for disruptive new model capabilities, and ameliorate socially harmful effects, it is vital that we understand the present and near-future capabilities and limitations of language models. To address this challenge, we introduce the Beyond the Imitation Game benchmark (BIG-bench). BIG-bench currently consists of 204 tasks, contributed by 450 authors across 132 institutions. Task topics are diverse, drawing problems from linguistics, childhood development, math, common-sense reasoning, biology, physics, social bias, software development, and beyond. BIG-bench focuses on tasks that are believed to be beyond the capabilities of current language models. We evaluate the behavior of OpenAI's GPT models, Google-internal dense transformer architectures, and Switch-style sparse transformers on BIG-bench, across model sizes spanning millions to hundreds of billions of parameters. In addition, a team of human expert raters performed all tasks in order to provide a strong baseline. Findings include: model performance and calibration both improve with scale, but are poor in absolute terms (and when compared with rater performance); performance is remarkably similar across model classes, though with benefits from sparsity; tasks that improve gradually and predictably commonly involve a large knowledge or memorization component, whereas tasks that exhibit "breakthrough" behavior at a critical scale often involve multiple steps or components, or brittle metrics; social bias typically increases with scale in settings with ambiguous context, but this can be improved with prompting.

In this paper, we introduce Cross-View Language Modeling, a simple and effective pre-training framework that unifies cross-lingual and cross-modal pre-training with shared architectures and objectives. Our approach is motivated by a key observation that cross-lingual and cross-modal pre-training share the same goal of aligning two different views of the same object into a common semantic space. To this end, the cross-view language modeling framework considers both multi-modal data (i.e., image-caption pairs) and multi-lingual data (i.e., parallel sentence pairs) as two different views of the same object, and trains the model to align the two views by maximizing the mutual information between them with conditional masked language modeling and contrastive learning. We pre-train CCLM, a Cross-lingual Cross-modal Language Model, with the cross-view language modeling framework. Empirical results on IGLUE, a multi-lingual multi-modal benchmark, and two multi-lingual image-text retrieval datasets show that while conceptually simpler, CCLM significantly outperforms the prior state-of-the-art with an average absolute improvement of over 10%. Moreover, CCLM is the first multi-lingual multi-modal pre-trained model that surpasses the translate-test performance of representative English vision-language models by zero-shot cross-lingual transfer.

Entity aspect recommendation is an emerging task in semantic search that helps users discover serendipitous and prominent information with respect to an entity, of which salience (e.g., popularity) is the most important factor in previous work. However, entity aspects are temporally dynamic and often driven by events happening over time. For such cases, aspect suggestion based solely on salience features can give unsatisfactory results, for two reasons. First, salience is often accumulated over a long time period and does not account for recency. Second, many aspects related to an event entity are strongly time-dependent. In this paper, we study the task of temporal aspect recommendation for a given entity, which aims at recommending the most relevant aspects and takes into account time in order to improve search experience. We propose a novel event-centric ensemble ranking method that learns from multiple time and type-dependent models and dynamically trades off salience and recency characteristics. Through extensive experiments on real-world query logs, we demonstrate that our method is robust and achieves better effectiveness than competitive baselines.