Online conformal prediction (OCP) seeks prediction intervals that achieve long-run $1-α$ coverage for arbitrary (possibly adversarial) data streams, while remaining as informative as possible. Existing OCP methods often require manual learning-rate tuning to work well, and may also require algorithm-specific analyses. Here, we develop a general regret-to-coverage theory for interval-valued OCP based on the $(1-α)$-pinball loss. Our first contribution is to identify \emph{linearized regret} as a key notion, showing that controlling it implies coverage bounds for any online algorithm. This relies on a black-box reduction that depends only on the Fenchel conjugate of an upper bound on the linearized regret. Building on this theory, we propose UP-OCP, a parameter-free method for OCP, via a reduction to a two-asset portfolio selection problem, leveraging universal portfolio algorithms. We show strong finite-time bounds on the miscoverage of UP-OCP, even for polynomially growing predictions. Extensive experiments support that UP-OCP delivers consistently better size/coverage trade-offs than prior online conformal baselines.

The massive seabirds' powerful beaks can be surprisingly gentle when preening their babies. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. As thousands of birds nest in the warm sun of Midway Atoll, some tend to their new chicks. In a video posted by Friends of Midway Atoll (FOMA), one of the newest Mōlī (Laysan albatross) chicks gets a careful "beak preen" from its parent. According to FOMA, their beaks are essential survival tools, but can also be used with "precision and gentleness, applying only the pressure needed to tend to a fragile chick."

Science Dinosaurs Teen discovers Australia's oldest dinosaur fossil--almost 70 years ago An early sauropodomorph likely made the 230-million-year-old footprint. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. In 1958, an Australian teenager named Bruce Runnegar uncovered a mysterious dinosaur footprint during a visit to a quarry with school friends. He kept the fossil for years, eventually becoming a paleontologist himself. Over six decades later, the prehistoric print is now ready for its close-up.

One OpenClaw user said he recently allowed the bot to delete 75,000 of his old emails. One OpenClaw user said he recently allowed the bot to delete 75,000 of his old emails. OpenClaw is billed as'the AI that actually does things' and needs almost no input to potentially wreak havoc A new viral AI personal assistant will handle your email inbox, trade away your entire stock portfolio and text your wife "good morning" and "goodnight" on your behalf. OpenClaw, formerly known as Moltbot, and before that known as Clawdbot (until the AI firm Anthropic requested it rebrand due to similarities with its own product Claude), bills itself as "the AI that actually does things": a personal assistant that takes instructions via messaging apps such as WhatsApp or Telegram. Developed last November, it now has nearly 600,000 downloads and has gone viral among a niche ecosystem of the AI obsessed who say it represents a step change in the capabilities of AI agents, or even an "AGI moment" - that is, a revelation of generally intelligent AI. "It only does exactly what you tell it to do and exactly what you give it access to," said Ben Yorke, who works with the AI vibe trading platform Starchild and recently allowed the bot to delete, he claims, 75,000 of his old emails while he was in the shower.

We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of the Gaussian distribution is also provided. We apply the proposed method to reproduce some of the well-known bounds on norms of Gaussian random vectors, and also obtain dimension-free tail bounds for the Euclidean norm of random vectors with arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we reproduce a dimension-free concentration inequality for sum of independent and identically distributed positive semidefinite matrices with sub-exponential marginals, and obtain a concentration inequality for the sample covariance matrix of sub-exponential random vectors. We also obtain a tail bound for the operator norm of a random matrix series whose random coefficients may have arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we use coupling to formulate an abstraction of the proposed approach that applies more broadly.

We introduce the Thresholding Monte Carlo Tree Search problem, in which, given a tree $\mathcal{T}$ and a threshold $θ$, a player must answer whether the root node value of $\mathcal{T}$ is at least $θ$ or not. In the given tree, `MAX' or `MIN' is labeled on each internal node, and the value of a `MAX'-labeled (`MIN'-labeled) internal node is the maximum (minimum) of its child values. The value of a leaf node is the mean reward of an unknown distribution, from which the player can sample rewards. For this problem, we develop a $δ$-correct sequential sampling algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop strategy that has asymptotically optimal sample complexity. We show that a ratio-based modification of the D-Tracking arm-pulling strategy leads to a substantial improvement in empirical sample complexity, as well as reducing the per-round computational cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of arms.

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $β>0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each $β$ value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation to the tempered posterior family $p_β(θ\mid x) \propto π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ by training a single $(x,β)$-conditioned neural posterior estimator $q_ϕ(θ\mid x,β)$ that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: (i) synthesize off-manifold samples $(θ,x) \sim π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ and (ii) reweight a fixed base dataset $π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)$ using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS). We show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference (SBI) benchmarks, including the chaotic Lorenz-96 system, our $β$-amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations in standard two-sample metrics, matching non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.

Researchers solemnly swear they are up to no good. Scorpius Malfoy (Nyx Calder) gets sorted into Slytherin in a production of'Harry Potter and the Cursed Child' at Princess Theatre on February 25, 2021, in Melbourne, Australia. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Many people dream of starting their own business but wonder if they have what it takes. According to new research, you can find the answer to that dilemma in a Harry Potter house quiz.

Treasures unearthed by hundreds of archaeologists so far during work on the controversial planned HS2 train line have been shown exclusively to the BBC. The 450,000 objects, which are being held in a secret warehouse, include a possible Roman gladiator's tag, a hand axe that may be more than 40,000 years old and 19th Century gold dentures. It is an unprecedented amount and array of items, which will yield new insights into Britain's past, says the Centre for British Archaeology. Major building developments in the UK need land to be assessed by archaeologists as part of the planning process, to protect heritage sites. Since 2018 around 1,000 archaeologists have been involved in 60 digs along the route HS2 is set to take between London to Birmingham.

Sales of the iPhone hit an all-time high in the final three months of last year, tech firm Apple reported on Thursday. Revenue rose by 16% compared to the same period last year to $144bn (£82.5bn) - the strongest growth since 2021 - thanks to a jump in sales in China, as well as Europe, the Americas, and Japan. However, sales in other parts of the company were less positive. Wearables and accessories, which include things like the Apple Watch and AirPods, fell by roughly 3%. Apple chief executive Tim Cook said the iPhone's boost in sales meant the firm was in supply chase mode.