We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.

Retriever-augmented instruction-following models are attractive alternatives to fine-tuned approaches for information-seeking tasks such as question answering (QA). By simply prepending retrieved documents in its input along with an instruction, these models can be adapted to various information domains and tasks without additional fine-tuning. While the model responses tend to be natural and fluent, the additional verbosity makes traditional QA evaluation metrics such as exact match (EM) and F1 unreliable for accurately quantifying model performance. In this work, we investigate the performance of instruction-following models across three information-seeking QA tasks. We use both automatic and human evaluation to evaluate these models along two dimensions: 1) how well they satisfy the user's information need (correctness), and 2) whether they produce a response based on the provided knowledge (faithfulness). Guided by human evaluation and analysis, we highlight the shortcomings of traditional metrics for both correctness and faithfulness. We then propose simple token-overlap based and model-based metrics that reflect the true performance of these models. Our analysis reveals that instruction-following models are competitive, and sometimes even outperform fine-tuned models for correctness. However, these models struggle to stick to the provided knowledge and often hallucinate in their responses. We hope our work encourages a more holistic evaluation of instruction-following models for QA. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/McGill-NLP/instruct-qa

The trustworthiness of machine learning has emerged as a critical topic in the field, encompassing various applications and research areas such as robustness, security, interpretability, and fairness. The last decade saw the development of numerous methods addressing these challenges. In this survey, we systematically review these advancements from a data-centric perspective, highlighting the shortcomings of traditional empirical risk minimization (ERM) training in handling challenges posed by the data. Interestingly, we observe a convergence of these methods, despite being developed independently across trustworthy machine learning subfields. Pearl's hierarchy of causality offers a unifying framework for these techniques. Accordingly, this survey presents the background of trustworthy machine learning development using a unified set of concepts, connects this language to Pearl's causal hierarchy, and finally discusses methods explicitly inspired by causality literature. We provide a unified language with mathematical vocabulary to link these methods across robustness, adversarial robustness, interpretability, and fairness, fostering a more cohesive understanding of the field. Further, we explore the trustworthiness of large pretrained models. After summarizing dominant techniques like fine-tuning, parameter-efficient fine-tuning, prompting, and reinforcement learning with human feedback, we draw connections between them and the standard ERM. This connection allows us to build upon the principled understanding of trustworthy methods, extending it to these new techniques in large pretrained models, paving the way for future methods. Existing methods under this perspective are also reviewed. Lastly, we offer a brief summary of the applications of these methods and discuss potential future aspects related to our survey. For more information, please visit http://trustai.one.

Limited availability of labeled data for machine learning on biomedical time-series hampers progress in the field. Self-supervised learning (SSL) is a promising approach to learning data representations without labels. However, current SSL methods require expensive computations for negative pairs and are designed for single modalities, limiting their versatility. To overcome these limitations, we introduce CroSSL (Cross-modal SSL). CroSSL introduces two novel concepts: masking intermediate embeddings from modality-specific encoders and aggregating them into a global embedding using a cross-modal aggregator. This enables the handling of missing modalities and end-to-end learning of cross-modal patterns without prior data preprocessing or time-consuming negative-pair sampling. We evaluate CroSSL on various multimodal time-series benchmarks, including both medical-grade and consumer biosignals. Our results demonstrate superior performance compared to previous SSL techniques and supervised benchmarks with minimal labeled data. We additionally analyze the impact of different masking ratios and strategies and assess the robustness of the learned representations to missing modalities. Overall, our work achieves state-of-the-art performance while highlighting the benefits of masking latent embeddings for cross-modal learning in temporal health data.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) trained with the logistic loss (i.e., the cross entropy loss) have made impressive advancements in various binary classification tasks. However, generalization analysis for binary classification with DNNs and logistic loss remains scarce. The unboundedness of the target function for the logistic loss is the main obstacle to deriving satisfying generalization bounds. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by establishing a novel and elegant oracle-type inequality, which enables us to deal with the boundedness restriction of the target function, and using it to derive sharp convergence rates for fully connected ReLU DNN classifiers trained with logistic loss. In particular, we obtain optimal convergence rates (up to log factors) only requiring the H\"older smoothness of the conditional class probability $\eta$ of data. Moreover, we consider a compositional assumption that requires $\eta$ to be the composition of several vector-valued functions of which each component function is either a maximum value function or a H\"older smooth function only depending on a small number of its input variables. Under this assumption, we derive optimal convergence rates (up to log factors) which are independent of the input dimension of data. This result explains why DNN classifiers can perform well in practical high-dimensional classification problems. Besides the novel oracle-type inequality, the sharp convergence rates given in our paper also owe to a tight error bound for approximating the natural logarithm function near zero (where it is unbounded) by ReLU DNNs. In addition, we justify our claims for the optimality of rates by proving corresponding minimax lower bounds. All these results are new in the literature and will deepen our theoretical understanding of classification with DNNs.

Retrieval approaches that score documents based on learned dense vectors (i.e., dense retrieval) rather than lexical signals (i.e., conventional retrieval) are increasingly popular. Their ability to identify related documents that do not necessarily contain the same terms as those appearing in the user's query (thereby improving recall) is one of their key advantages. However, to actually achieve these gains, dense retrieval approaches typically require an exhaustive search over the document collection, making them considerably more expensive at query-time than conventional lexical approaches. Several techniques aim to reduce this computational overhead by approximating the results of a full dense retriever. Although these approaches reasonably approximate the top results, they suffer in terms of recall -- one of the key advantages of dense retrieval. We introduce 'LADR' (Lexically-Accelerated Dense Retrieval), a simple-yet-effective approach that improves the efficiency of existing dense retrieval models without compromising on retrieval effectiveness. LADR uses lexical retrieval techniques to seed a dense retrieval exploration that uses a document proximity graph. We explore two variants of LADR: a proactive approach that expands the search space to the neighbors of all seed documents, and an adaptive approach that selectively searches the documents with the highest estimated relevance in an iterative fashion. Through extensive experiments across a variety of dense retrieval models, we find that LADR establishes a new dense retrieval effectiveness-efficiency Pareto frontier among approximate k nearest neighbor techniques. Further, we find that when tuned to take around 8ms per query in retrieval latency on our hardware, LADR consistently achieves both precision and recall that are on par with an exhaustive search on standard benchmarks.

The BBQ (Bias Benchmark for Question Answering) dataset enables the evaluation of the social biases that language models (LMs) exhibit in downstream tasks. However, it is challenging to adapt BBQ to languages other than English as social biases are culturally dependent. In this paper, we devise a process to construct a non-English bias benchmark dataset by leveraging the English BBQ dataset in a culturally adaptive way and present the KoBBQ dataset for evaluating biases in Question Answering (QA) tasks in Korean. We identify samples from BBQ into three classes: Simply-Translated (can be used directly after cultural translation), Target-Modified (requires localization in target groups), and Sample-Removed (does not fit Korean culture). We further enhance the cultural relevance to Korean culture by adding four new categories of bias specific to Korean culture and newly creating samples based on Korean literature. KoBBQ consists of 246 templates and 4,740 samples across 12 categories of social bias. Using KoBBQ, we measure the accuracy and bias scores of several state-of-the-art multilingual LMs. We demonstrate the differences in the bias of LMs in Korean and English, clarifying the need for hand-crafted data considering cultural differences.

Abstract-- Many objects such as tools and household items can be used only if grasped in a very specific way--grasped functionally. Often, a direct functional grasp is not possible, though. We propose a method for learning a dexterous pregrasp manipulation policy to achieve human-like functional grasps using deep reinforcement learning. We introduce a dense multi-component reward function that enables learning a single policy, capable of dexterous pre-grasp manipulation of novel instances of several known object categories with an anthropomorphic hand. The policy is learned purely by means of reinforcement learning from scratch, without any expert demonstrations, and implicitly learns to reposition and reorient objects of complex shapes to achieve given functional grasps. Learning is done on a single GPU in less than three hours.

The ability to handle miscommunication is crucial to robust and faithful conversational AI. People usually deal with miscommunication immediately as they detect it, using highly systematic interactional mechanisms called repair. One important type of repair is Third Position Repair (TPR) whereby a speaker is initially misunderstood but then corrects the misunderstanding as it becomes apparent after the addressee's erroneous response. Here, we collect and publicly release Repair-QA, the first large dataset of TPRs in a conversational question answering (QA) setting. The data is comprised of the TPR turns, corresponding dialogue contexts, and candidate repairs of the original turn for execution of TPRs. We demonstrate the usefulness of the data by training and evaluating strong baseline models for executing TPRs. For stand-alone TPR execution, we perform both automatic and human evaluations on a fine-tuned T5 model, as well as OpenAI's GPT-3 LLMs. Additionally, we extrinsically evaluate the LLMs' TPR processing capabilities in the downstream conversational QA task. The results indicate poor out-of-the-box performance on TPR's by the GPT-3 models, which then significantly improves when exposed to Repair-QA.

Annotating costs of large corpora are still one of the main bottlenecks in empirical social science research. On the one hand, making use of the capabilities of domain transfer allows re-using annotated data sets and trained models. On the other hand, it is not clear how well domain transfer works and how reliable the results are for transfer across different dimensions. We explore the potential of domain transfer across geographical locations, languages, time, and genre in a large-scale database of political manifestos. First, we show the strong within-domain classification performance of fine-tuned transformer models. Second, we vary the genre of the test set across the aforementioned dimensions to test for the fine-tuned models' robustness and transferability. For switching genres, we use an external corpus of transcribed speeches from New Zealand politicians while for the other three dimensions, custom splits of the Manifesto database are used. While BERT achieves the best scores in the initial experiments across modalities, DistilBERT proves to be competitive at a lower computational expense and is thus used for further experiments across time and country. The results of the additional analysis show that (Distil)BERT can be applied to future data with similar performance. Moreover, we observe (partly) notable differences between the political manifestos of different countries of origin, even if these countries share a language or a cultural background.