Resilience engineering studies the ability of a system to survive and recover from disruptive events, which finds applications in several domains. Most studies emphasize resilience metrics to quantify system performance, whereas recent studies propose statistical modeling approaches to project system recovery time after degradation. Moreover, past studies are either performed on data after recovering or limited to idealized trends. Therefore, this paper proposes three alternative neural network (NN) approaches including (i) Artificial Neural Networks, (ii) Recurrent Neural Networks, and (iii) Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) to model and predict system performance, including negative and positive factors driving resilience to quantify the impact of disruptive events and restorative activities. Goodness-of-fit measures are computed to evaluate the models and compared with a classical statistical model, including mean squared error and adjusted R squared. Our results indicate that NN models outperformed the traditional model on all goodness-of-fit measures. More specifically, LSTMs achieved an over 60\% higher adjusted R squared, and decreased predictive error by 34-fold compared to the traditional method. These results suggest that NN models to predict resilience are both feasible and accurate and may find practical use in many important domains.

Reasoning ability is one of the most crucial capabilities of a foundation model, signifying its capacity to address complex reasoning tasks. Chain-of-Thought (CoT) technique is widely regarded as one of the effective methods for enhancing the reasoning ability of foundation models and has garnered significant attention. However, the reasoning process of CoT is linear, step-by-step, similar to personal logical reasoning, suitable for solving general and slightly complicated problems. On the contrary, the thinking pattern of an expert owns two prominent characteristics that cannot be handled appropriately in CoT, i.e., high-order multi-hop reasoning and multimodal comparative judgement. Therefore, the core motivation of this paper is transcending CoT to construct a reasoning paradigm that can think like an expert. The hyperedge of a hypergraph could connect various vertices, making it naturally suitable for modelling high-order relationships. Inspired by this, this paper innovatively proposes a multimodal Hypergraph-of-Thought (HoT) reasoning paradigm, which enables the foundation models to possess the expert-level ability of high-order multi-hop reasoning and multimodal comparative judgement. Specifically, a textual hypergraph-of-thought is constructed utilizing triple as the primary thought to model higher-order relationships, and a hyperedge-of-thought is generated through multi-hop walking paths to achieve multi-hop inference. Furthermore, we devise a visual hypergraph-of-thought to interact with the textual hypergraph-of-thought via Cross-modal Co-Attention Graph Learning for multimodal comparative verification. Experimentations on the ScienceQA benchmark demonstrate the proposed HoT-based T5 outperforms CoT-based GPT3.5 and chatGPT, which is on par with CoT-based GPT4 with a lower model size.

Traffic management systems play a vital role in ensuring safe and efficient transportation on roads. However, the use of advanced technologies in traffic management systems has introduced new safety challenges. Therefore, it is important to ensure the safety of these systems to prevent accidents and minimize their impact on road users. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of the literature on safety in traffic management systems. Specifically, we discuss the different safety issues that arise in traffic management systems, the current state of research on safety in these systems, and the techniques and methods proposed to ensure the safety of these systems. We also identify the limitations of the existing research and suggest future research directions.

We aim to explicitly model the delayed Granger causal effects based on multivariate Hawkes processes. The idea is inspired by the fact that a causal event usually takes some time to exert an effect. Studying this time lag itself is of interest. Given the proposed model, we first prove the identifiability of the delay parameter under mild conditions. We further investigate a model estimation method under a complex setting, where we want to infer the posterior distribution of the time lags and understand how this distribution varies across different scenarios. We treat the time lags as latent variables and formulate a Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) algorithm to approximate the posterior distribution of the time lags. By explicitly modeling the time lags in Hawkes processes, we add flexibility to the model. The inferred time-lag posterior distributions are of scientific meaning and help trace the original causal time that supports the root cause analysis. We empirically evaluate our model's event prediction and time-lag inference accuracy on synthetic and real data, achieving promising results.

Recent studies have shown that the multi-encoder models are agnostic to the choice of context, and the context encoder generates noise which helps improve the models in terms of BLEU score. In this paper, we further explore this idea by evaluating with context-aware pronoun translation test set by training multi-encoder models trained on three different context settings viz, previous two sentences, random two sentences, and a mix of both as context. Specifically, we evaluate the models on the ContraPro test set to study how different contexts affect pronoun translation accuracy. The results show that the model can perform well on the ContraPro test set even when the context is random. We also analyze the source representations to study whether the context encoder generates noise. Our analysis shows that the context encoder provides sufficient information to learn discourse-level information. Additionally, we observe that mixing the selected context (the previous two sentences in this case) and the random context is generally better than the other settings.

Robust pedestrian trajectory forecasting is crucial to developing safe autonomous vehicles. Although previous works have studied adversarial robustness in the context of trajectory forecasting, some significant issues remain unaddressed. In this work, we try to tackle these crucial problems. Firstly, the previous definitions of robustness in trajectory prediction are ambiguous. We thus provide formal definitions for two kinds of robustness, namely label robustness and pure robustness. Secondly, as previous works fail to consider robustness about all points in a disturbance interval, we utilise a probably approximately correct (PAC) framework for robustness verification. Additionally, this framework can not only identify potential counterexamples, but also provides interpretable analyses of the original methods. Our approach is applied using a prototype tool named TrajPAC. With TrajPAC, we evaluate the robustness of four state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models -- Trajectron++, MemoNet, AgentFormer, and MID -- on trajectories from five scenes of the ETH/UCY dataset and scenes of the Stanford Drone Dataset. Using our framework, we also experimentally study various factors that could influence robustness performance.

In many real-world scenarios, agents are involved in optimization problems. Since most of these scenarios are over-constrained, optimal solutions do not always satisfy all agents. Some agents might be unhappy and ask questions of the form ``Why does solution $S$ not satisfy property $P$?''. In this paper, we propose MAoE, a domain-independent approach to obtain contrastive explanations by (i) generating a new solution $S^\prime$ where the property $P$ is enforced, while also minimizing the differences between $S$ and $S^\prime$; and (ii) highlighting the differences between the two solutions. Such explanations aim to help agents understanding why the initial solution is better than what they expected. We have carried out a computational evaluation that shows that MAoE can generate contrastive explanations for large multi-agent optimization problems. We have also performed an extensive user study in four different domains that shows that, after being presented with these explanations, humans' satisfaction with the original solution increases.

Function-as-a-Service (FaaS) introduces a lightweight, function-based cloud execution model that finds its relevance in applications like IoT-edge data processing and anomaly detection. While CSP offer a near-infinite function elasticity, these applications often experience fluctuating workloads and stricter performance constraints. A typical CSP strategy is to empirically determine and adjust desired function instances, "autoscaling", based on monitoring-based thresholds such as CPU or memory, to cope with demand and performance. However, threshold configuration either requires expert knowledge, historical data or a complete view of environment, making autoscaling a performance bottleneck lacking an adaptable solution.RL algorithms are proven to be beneficial in analysing complex cloud environments and result in an adaptable policy that maximizes the expected objectives. Most realistic cloud environments usually involve operational interference and have limited visibility, making them partially observable. A general solution to tackle observability in highly dynamic settings is to integrate Recurrent units with model-free RL algorithms and model a decision process as a POMDP. Therefore, in this paper, we investigate a model-free Recurrent RL agent for function autoscaling and compare it against the model-free Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) algorithm. We explore the integration of a LSTM network with the state-of-the-art PPO algorithm to find that under our experimental and evaluation settings, recurrent policies were able to capture the environment parameters and show promising results for function autoscaling. We further compare a PPO-based autoscaling agent with commercially used threshold-based function autoscaling and posit that a LSTM-based autoscaling agent is able to improve throughput by 18%, function execution by 13% and account for 8.4% more function instances.

In dense traffic scenarios, ensuring safety while keeping high task performance for autonomous driving is a critical challenge. To address this problem, this paper proposes a computationally-efficient spatiotemporal receding horizon control (ST-RHC) scheme to generate a safe, dynamically feasible, energy-efficient trajectory in control space, where different driving tasks in dense traffic can be achieved with high accuracy and safety in real time. In particular, an embodied spatiotemporal safety barrier module considering proactive interactions is devised to mitigate the effects of inaccuracies resulting from the trajectory prediction of other vehicles. Subsequently, the motion planning and control problem is formulated as a constrained nonlinear optimization problem, which favorably facilitates the effective use of off-the-shelf optimization solvers in conjunction with multiple shooting. The effectiveness of the proposed ST-RHC scheme is demonstrated through comprehensive comparisons with state-of-the-art algorithms on synthetic and real-world traffic datasets under dense traffic, and the attendant outcome of superior performance in terms of accuracy, efficiency and safety is achieved.

This paper focuses on the impact of leveraging autonomous offensive approaches in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to train more robust agents by exploring the impact of applying adversarial learning to DRL for autonomous security in Software Defined Networks (SDN). Two algorithms, Double Deep Q-Networks (DDQN) and Neural Episodic Control to Deep Q-Network (NEC2DQN or N2D), are compared. NEC2DQN was proposed in 2018 and is a new member of the deep q-network (DQN) family of algorithms. The attacker has full observability of the environment and access to a causative attack that uses state manipulation in an attempt to poison the learning process. The implementation of the attack is done under a white-box setting, in which the attacker has access to the defender's model and experiences. Two games are played; in the first game, DDQN is a defender and N2D is an attacker, and in second game, the roles are reversed. The games are played twice; first, without an active causative attack and secondly, with an active causative attack. For execution, three sets of game results are recorded in which a single set consists of 10 game runs. The before and after results are then compared in order to see if there was actually an improvement or degradation. The results show that with minute parameter changes made to the algorithms, there was growth in the attacker's role, since it is able to win games. Implementation of the adversarial learning by the introduction of the causative attack showed the algorithms are still able to defend the network according to their strengths.