We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of the Gaussian distribution is also provided. We apply the proposed method to reproduce some of the well-known bounds on norms of Gaussian random vectors, and also obtain dimension-free tail bounds for the Euclidean norm of random vectors with arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we reproduce a dimension-free concentration inequality for sum of independent and identically distributed positive semidefinite matrices with sub-exponential marginals, and obtain a concentration inequality for the sample covariance matrix of sub-exponential random vectors. We also obtain a tail bound for the operator norm of a random matrix series whose random coefficients may have arbitrary moment profiles. Furthermore, we use coupling to formulate an abstraction of the proposed approach that applies more broadly.

We introduce the Thresholding Monte Carlo Tree Search problem, in which, given a tree $\mathcal{T}$ and a threshold $θ$, a player must answer whether the root node value of $\mathcal{T}$ is at least $θ$ or not. In the given tree, `MAX' or `MIN' is labeled on each internal node, and the value of a `MAX'-labeled (`MIN'-labeled) internal node is the maximum (minimum) of its child values. The value of a leaf node is the mean reward of an unknown distribution, from which the player can sample rewards. For this problem, we develop a $δ$-correct sequential sampling algorithm based on the Track-and-Stop strategy that has asymptotically optimal sample complexity. We show that a ratio-based modification of the D-Tracking arm-pulling strategy leads to a substantial improvement in empirical sample complexity, as well as reducing the per-round computational cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of arms.

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $β>0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers and must be re-run for each new dataset and each $β$ value. We give the first fully amortized variational approximation to the tempered posterior family $p_β(θ\mid x) \propto π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ by training a single $(x,β)$-conditioned neural posterior estimator $q_ϕ(θ\mid x,β)$ that enables sampling in a single forward pass, without simulator calls or inference-time MCMC. We introduce two complementary training routes: (i) synthesize off-manifold samples $(θ,x) \sim π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)^β$ and (ii) reweight a fixed base dataset $π(θ)\,p(x \mid θ)$ using self-normalized importance sampling (SNIS). We show that the SNIS-weighted objective provides a consistent forward-KL fit to the tempered posterior with finite weight variance. Across four standard simulation-based inference (SBI) benchmarks, including the chaotic Lorenz-96 system, our $β$-amortized estimator achieves competitive posterior approximations in standard two-sample metrics, matching non-amortized MCMC-based power-posterior samplers over a wide range of temperatures.

Researchers solemnly swear they are up to no good. Scorpius Malfoy (Nyx Calder) gets sorted into Slytherin in a production of'Harry Potter and the Cursed Child' at Princess Theatre on February 25, 2021, in Melbourne, Australia. Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent six days a week. Many people dream of starting their own business but wonder if they have what it takes. According to new research, you can find the answer to that dilemma in a Harry Potter house quiz.

Treasures unearthed by hundreds of archaeologists so far during work on the controversial planned HS2 train line have been shown exclusively to the BBC. The 450,000 objects, which are being held in a secret warehouse, include a possible Roman gladiator's tag, a hand axe that may be more than 40,000 years old and 19th Century gold dentures. It is an unprecedented amount and array of items, which will yield new insights into Britain's past, says the Centre for British Archaeology. Major building developments in the UK need land to be assessed by archaeologists as part of the planning process, to protect heritage sites. Since 2018 around 1,000 archaeologists have been involved in 60 digs along the route HS2 is set to take between London to Birmingham.

Sales of the iPhone hit an all-time high in the final three months of last year, tech firm Apple reported on Thursday. Revenue rose by 16% compared to the same period last year to $144bn (£82.5bn) - the strongest growth since 2021 - thanks to a jump in sales in China, as well as Europe, the Americas, and Japan. However, sales in other parts of the company were less positive. Wearables and accessories, which include things like the Apple Watch and AirPods, fell by roughly 3%. Apple chief executive Tim Cook said the iPhone's boost in sales meant the firm was in supply chase mode.

Modern large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Claude, and Gemini have transformed the way we learn, work, and communicate. Y et, their ability to produce highly human-like text raises serious concerns about misinformation and academic integrity, making it an urgent need for reliable algorithms to detect LLMgenerated content. In this paper, we start by presenting a geometric approach to demystify rewrite-based detection algorithms, revealing their underlying rationale and demonstrating their generalization ability. Building on this insight, we introduce a novel rewrite-based detection algorithm that adaptively learns the distance between the original and rewritten text. Theoretically, we demonstrate that employing an adaptively learned distance function is more effective for detection than using a fixed distance. Empirically, we conduct extensive experiments with over 100 settings, and find that our approach demonstrates superior performance over baseline algorithms in the majority of scenarios. In particular, it achieves relative improvements from 57.8% to 80.6% over the strongest baseline across different target LLMs (e.g., GPT, Claude, and Gemini). The past few years have witnessed the emergence and rapid development of large language models (LLMs) such as GPT (Hurst et al., 2024), DeepSeek (Liu et al., 2024), Claude (Anthropic, 2024), Gemini (Comanici et al., 2025), Grok (xAI, 2025) and Qwen (Y ang et al., 2025). Their impact is everywhere, from education, academia and software development to healthcare and everyday life (Arora & Arora, 2023; Chan & Hu, 2023; Hou et al., 2024). On one side of the coin, LLMs can support users with conversational question answering, help students learn more effectively, draft emails, write computer code, prepare presentation slides and more. On the other side, their ability to closely mimic human-written text also raises serious concerns, including the generation of biased or harmful content, the spread of misinformation in the news ecosystem, and the challenges related to authorship attribution and intellectual property (Dave et al., 2023; Fang et al., 2024; Messeri & Crockett, 2024; Mahajan et al., 2025; Laurito et al., 2025). Addressing these concerns requires effective algorithms to distinguish between human-written and LLM-generated text, which has become an active and popular research direction in recent literature (see Crothers et al., 2023; Wu et al., 2025, for reviews).

The achievement of the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is dependent upon strategic resource distribution. We propose a causal discovery framework using Panel Vector Autoregression, along with both country-specific fixed effects and PCMCI+ conditional independence testing on 168 countries (2000-2025) to develop the first complete causal architecture of SDG dependencies. Utilizing 8 strategically chosen SDGs, we identify a distributed causal network (i.e., no single 'hub' SDG), with 10 statistically significant Granger-causal relationships identified as 11 unique direct effects. Education to Inequality is identified as the most statistically significant direct relationship (r = -0.599; p < 0.05), while effect magnitude significantly varies depending on income levels (e.g., high-income: r = -0.65; lower-middle-income: r = -0.06; non-significant). We also reject the idea that there exists a single 'keystone' SDG. Additionally, we offer a proposed tiered priority framework for the SDGs namely, identifying upstream drivers (Education, Growth), enabling goals (Institutions, Energy), and downstream outcomes (Poverty, Health). Therefore, we conclude that effective SDG acceleration can be accomplished through coordinated multi-dimensional intervention(s), and that single-goal sequential strategies are insufficient.

We introduce a model-agnostic forward diffusion process for time-series forecasting that decomposes signals into spectral components, preserving structured temporal patterns such as seasonality more effectively than standard diffusion. Unlike prior work that modifies the network architecture or diffuses directly in the frequency domain, our proposed method alters only the diffusion process itself, making it compatible with existing diffusion backbones (e.g., DiffWave, TimeGrad, CSDI). By staging noise injection according to component energy, it maintains high signal-to-noise ratios for dominant frequencies throughout the diffusion trajectory, thereby improving the recoverability of long-term patterns. This strategy enables the model to maintain the signal structure for a longer period in the forward process, leading to improved forecast quality. Across standard forecasting benchmarks, we show that applying spectral decomposition strategies, such as the Fourier or Wavelet transform, consistently improves upon diffusion models using the baseline forward process, with negligible computational overhead. The code for this paper is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/D-FDP-4A29.

Biased gradient compression with error feedback (EF) reduces communication in federated learning (FL), but under non-IID data, the residual error can decay slowly, causing gradient mismatch and stalled progress in the early rounds. We propose step-ahead partial error feedback (SA-PEF), which integrates step-ahead (SA) correction with partial error feedback (PEF). SA-PEF recovers EF when the step-ahead coefficient α = 0 and step-ahead EF (SAEF) when α = 1. For non-convex objectives and δ-contractive compressors, we establish a second-moment bound and a residual recursion that guarantee convergence to stationar-ity under heterogeneous data and partial client participation. To balance SAEF's rapid warm-up with EF's long-term stability, we select α near its theory-predicted optimum. Experiments across diverse architectures and datasets show that SA-PEF consistently reaches target accuracy faster than EF. Modern large-scale machine learning increasingly relies on distributed computation, where both data and compute are spread across many devices. Federated learning (FL) enables model training in this setting without centralizing raw data, enhancing privacy and scalability under heterogeneous client distributions (McMahan et al., 2017; Kairouz et al., 2021). In each synchronous FL round, the server broadcasts the current global model to a subset of clients. These clients perform several steps of stochastic gradient descent (SGD) on their local data and return updates to the server, which aggregates them to form the next global iterate (Huang et al., 2022; Wang & Ji, 2022; Li et al., 2024). Although FL leverages rich distributed data, it faces two key challenges.