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LLMFactor: Extracting Profitable Factors through Prompts for Explainable Stock Movement Prediction

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have attracted significant attention for their exceptional performance across a broad range of tasks, particularly in text analysis. However, the finance sector presents a distinct challenge due to its dependence on time-series data for complex forecasting tasks. In this study, we introduce a novel framework called LLMFactor, which employs Sequential Knowledge-Guided Prompting (SKGP) to identify factors that influence stock movements using LLMs. Unlike previous methods that relied on keyphrases or sentiment analysis, this approach focuses on extracting factors more directly related to stock market dynamics, providing clear explanations for complex temporal changes. Our framework directs the LLMs to create background knowledge through a fill-in-the-blank strategy and then discerns potential factors affecting stock prices from related news. Guided by background knowledge and identified factors, we leverage historical stock prices in textual format to predict stock movement. An extensive evaluation of the LLMFactor framework across four benchmark datasets from both the U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrates its superiority over existing state-of-the-art methods and its effectiveness in financial time-series forecasting.


Aligning Large Language Models from Self-Reference AI Feedback with one General Principle

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In aligning large language models (LLMs), utilizing feedback from existing advanced AI rather than humans is an important method to scale supervisory signals. However, it is highly challenging for AI to understand human intentions and societal values, and provide accurate preference feedback based on these. Current AI feedback methods rely on powerful LLMs, carefully designed specific principles to describe human intentions, and are easily influenced by position bias. To address these issues, we propose a self-reference-based AI feedback framework that enables a 13B Llama2-Chat to provide high-quality feedback under simple and general principles such as ``best for humanity``. Specifically, we allow the AI to first respond to the user's instructions, then generate criticism of other answers based on its own response as a reference, and finally determine which answer better fits human preferences according to the criticism. Additionally, we use a self-consistency method to further reduce the impact of position bias, and employ semantic perplexity to calculate the preference strength differences between different answers. Experimental results show that our method enables 13B and 70B Llama2-Chat annotators to provide high-quality preference feedback, and the policy models trained based on these preference data achieve significant advantages in benchmark datasets through reinforcement learning.


THEANINE: Revisiting Memory Management in Long-term Conversations with Timeline-augmented Response Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of processing lengthy dialogue histories during prolonged interaction with users without additional memory modules; however, their responses tend to overlook or incorrectly recall information from the past. In this paper, we revisit memory-augmented response generation in the era of LLMs. While prior work focuses on getting rid of outdated memories, we argue that such memories can provide contextual cues that help dialogue systems understand the development of past events and, therefore, benefit response generation. We present Theanine, a framework that augments LLMs' response generation with memory timelines -- series of memories that demonstrate the development and causality of relevant past events. Along with Theanine, we introduce TeaFarm, a counterfactual-driven question-answering pipeline addressing the limitation of G-Eval in long-term conversations. Supplementary videos of our methods and the TeaBag dataset for TeaFarm evaluation are in https://theanine-693b0.web.app/.


First-Order Manifold Data Augmentation for Regression Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Data augmentation (DA) methods tailored to specific domains generate synthetic samples by applying transformations that are appropriate for the characteristics of the underlying data domain, such as rotations on images and time warping on time series data. In contrast, domain-independent approaches, e.g. mixup, are applicable to various data modalities, and as such they are general and versatile. While regularizing classification tasks via DA is a well-explored research topic, the effect of DA on regression problems received less attention. To bridge this gap, we study the problem of domain-independent augmentation for regression, and we introduce FOMA: a new data-driven domain-independent data augmentation method. Essentially, our approach samples new examples from the tangent planes of the train distribution. Augmenting data in this way aligns with the network tendency towards capturing the dominant features of its input signals. We evaluate FOMA on in-distribution generalization and out-of-distribution robustness benchmarks, and we show that it improves the generalization of several neural architectures. We also find that strong baselines based on mixup are less effective in comparison to our approach. Our code is publicly available athttps://github.com/azencot-group/FOMA.


Citation-Based Summarization of Landmark Judgments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Landmark judgments are of prime importance in the Common Law System because of their exceptional jurisprudence and frequent references in other judgments. In this work, we leverage contextual references available in citing judgments to create an extractive summary of the target judgment. We evaluate the proposed algorithm on two datasets curated from the judgments of Indian Courts and find the results promising.


Teaching Large Language Models to Express Knowledge Boundary from Their Own Signals

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved great success, but their occasional content fabrication, or hallucination, limits their practical application. Hallucination arises because LLMs struggle to admit ignorance due to inadequate training on knowledge boundaries. We call it a limitation of LLMs that they can not accurately express their knowledge boundary, answering questions they know while admitting ignorance to questions they do not know. In this paper, we aim to teach LLMs to recognize and express their knowledge boundary, so they can reduce hallucinations caused by fabricating when they do not know. We propose CoKE, which first probes LLMs' knowledge boundary via internal confidence given a set of questions, and then leverages the probing results to elicit the expression of the knowledge boundary. Extensive experiments show CoKE helps LLMs express knowledge boundaries, answering known questions while declining unknown ones, significantly improving in-domain and out-of-domain performance.


KGPA: Robustness Evaluation for Large Language Models via Cross-Domain Knowledge Graphs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Existing frameworks for assessing robustness of large language models (LLMs) overly depend on specific benchmarks, increasing costs and failing to evaluate performance of LLMs in professional domains due to dataset limitations. This paper proposes a framework that systematically evaluates the robustness of LLMs under adversarial attack scenarios by leveraging knowledge graphs (KGs). Our framework generates original prompts from the triplets of knowledge graphs and creates adversarial prompts by poisoning, assessing the robustness of LLMs through the results of these adversarial attacks. We systematically evaluate the effectiveness of this framework and its modules. Experiments show that adversarial robustness of the ChatGPT family ranks as GPT-4-turbo > GPT-4o > GPT-3.5-turbo, and the robustness of large language models is influenced by the professional domains in which they operate.


Kolmogorov Arnold Informed neural network: A physics-informed deep learning framework for solving PDEs based on Kolmogorov Arnold Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

AI for partial differential equations (PDEs) has garnered significant attention, particularly with the emergence of Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs). The recent advent of Kolmogorov-Arnold Network (KAN) indicates that there is potential to revisit and enhance the previously MLP-based PINNs. Compared to MLPs, KANs offer interpretability and require fewer parameters. PDEs can be described in various forms, such as strong form, energy form, and inverse form. While mathematically equivalent, these forms are not computationally equivalent, making the exploration of different PDE formulations significant in computational physics. Thus, we propose different PDE forms based on KAN instead of MLP, termed Kolmogorov-Arnold-Informed Neural Network (KINN). We systematically compare MLP and KAN in various numerical examples of PDEs, including multi-scale, singularity, stress concentration, nonlinear hyperelasticity, heterogeneous, and complex geometry problems. Our results demonstrate that KINN significantly outperforms MLP in terms of accuracy and convergence speed for numerous PDEs in computational solid mechanics, except for the complex geometry problem. This highlights KINN's potential for more efficient and accurate PDE solutions in AI for PDEs.


Post-hoc Utterance Refining Method by Entity Mining for Faithful Knowledge Grounded Conversations

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite the striking advances in recent language generation performance, model-generated responses have suffered from the chronic problem of hallucinations that are either untrue or unfaithful to a given source. Especially in the task of knowledge grounded conversation, the models are required to generate informative responses, but hallucinated utterances lead to miscommunication. In particular, entity-level hallucination that causes critical misinformation and undesirable conversation is one of the major concerns. To address this issue, we propose a post-hoc refinement method called REM. It aims to enhance the quality and faithfulness of hallucinated utterances by refining them based on the source knowledge. If the generated utterance has a low source-faithfulness score with the given knowledge, REM mines the key entities in the knowledge and implicitly uses them for refining the utterances. We verify that our method reduces entity hallucination in the utterance. Also, we show the adaptability and efficacy of REM with extensive experiments and generative results. Our code is available at https://github.com/YOONNAJANG/REM.


Revisiting Cosine Similarity via Normalized ICA-transformed Embeddings

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cosine similarity is widely used to measure the similarity between two embeddings, while interpretations based on angle and correlation coefficient are common. In this study, we focus on the interpretable axes of embeddings transformed by Independent Component Analysis (ICA), and propose a novel interpretation of cosine similarity as the sum of semantic similarities over axes. To investigate this, we first show experimentally that unnormalized embeddings contain norm-derived artifacts. We then demonstrate that normalized ICA-transformed embeddings exhibit sparsity, with a few large values in each axis and across embeddings, thereby enhancing interpretability by delineating clear semantic contributions. Finally, to validate our interpretation, we perform retrieval experiments using ideal embeddings with and without specific semantic components.