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Simulating Financial Market via Large Language Model based Agents

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose \textbf{A}gent-based \textbf{S}imulated \textbf{F}inancial \textbf{M}arket (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.


Breaking the Script Barrier in Multilingual Pre-Trained Language Models with Transliteration-Based Post-Training Alignment

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Multilingual pre-trained models (mPLMs) have shown impressive performance on cross-lingual transfer tasks. However, the transfer performance is often hindered when a low-resource target language is written in a different script than the high-resource source language, even though the two languages may be related or share parts of their vocabularies. Inspired by recent work that uses transliteration to address this problem, our paper proposes a transliteration-based post-pretraining alignment (PPA) method aiming to improve the cross-lingual alignment between languages using diverse scripts. We select two areal language groups, $\textbf{Mediterranean-Amharic-Farsi}$ and $\textbf{South+East Asian Languages}$, wherein the languages are mutually influenced but use different scripts. We apply our method to these language groups and conduct extensive experiments on a spectrum of downstream tasks. The results show that after PPA, models consistently outperform the original model (up to 50% for some tasks) in English-centric transfer. In addition, when we use languages other than English as sources in transfer, our method obtains even larger improvements. We will make our code and models publicly available at \url{https://github.com/cisnlp/Transliteration-PPA}.


CHASE: A Causal Heterogeneous Graph based Framework for Root Cause Analysis in Multimodal Microservice Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, the widespread adoption of distributed microservice architectures within the industry has significantly increased the demand for enhanced system availability and robustness. Due to the complex service invocation paths and dependencies at enterprise-level microservice systems, it is challenging to locate the anomalies promptly during service invocations, thus causing intractable issues for normal system operations and maintenance. In this paper, we propose a Causal Heterogeneous grAph baSed framEwork for root cause analysis, namely CHASE, for microservice systems with multimodal data, including traces, logs, and system monitoring metrics. Specifically, related information is encoded into representative embeddings and further modeled by a multimodal invocation graph. Following that, anomaly detection is performed on each instance node with attentive heterogeneous message passing from its adjacent metric and log nodes. Finally, CHASE learns from the constructed hypergraph with hyperedges representing the flow of causality and performs root cause localization. We evaluate the proposed framework on two public microservice datasets with distinct attributes and compare with the state-of-the-art methods. The results show that CHASE achieves the average performance gain up to 36.2%(A@1) and 29.4%(Percentage@1), respectively to its best counterpart.


Unlocking Varied Perspectives: A Persona-Based Multi-Agent Framework with Debate-Driven Text Planning for Argument Generation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Writing persuasive arguments is a challenging task for both humans and machines. It entails incorporating high-level beliefs from various perspectives on the topic, along with deliberate reasoning and planning to construct a coherent narrative. Current language models often generate surface tokens autoregressively, lacking explicit integration of these underlying controls, resulting in limited output diversity and coherence. In this work, we propose a persona-based multi-agent framework for argument writing. Inspired by the human debate, we first assign each agent a persona representing its high-level beliefs from a unique perspective, and then design an agent interaction process so that the agents can collaboratively debate and discuss the idea to form an overall plan for argument writing. Such debate process enables fluid and nonlinear development of ideas. We evaluate our framework on argumentative essay writing. The results show that our framework can generate more diverse and persuasive arguments through both automatic and human evaluations.


From Local Concepts to Universals: Evaluating the Multicultural Understanding of Vision-Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Despite recent advancements in vision-language models, their performance remains suboptimal on images from non-western cultures due to underrepresentation in training datasets. Various benchmarks have been proposed to test models' cultural inclusivity, but they have limited coverage of cultures and do not adequately assess cultural diversity across universal as well as culture-specific local concepts. To address these limitations, we introduce the GlobalRG benchmark, comprising two challenging tasks: retrieval across universals and cultural visual grounding. The former task entails retrieving culturally diverse images for universal concepts from 50 countries, while the latter aims at grounding culture-specific concepts within images from 15 countries. Our evaluation across a wide range of models reveals that the performance varies significantly across cultures -- underscoring the necessity for enhancing multicultural understanding in vision-language models.


Token Erasure as a Footprint of Implicit Vocabulary Items in LLMs

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

LLMs process text as sequences of tokens that roughly correspond to words, where less common words are represented by multiple tokens. However, individual tokens are often semantically unrelated to the meanings of the words/concepts they comprise. For example, Llama-2-7b's tokenizer splits the word "northeastern" into the tokens ['_n', 'ort', 'he', 'astern'], none of which correspond to semantically meaningful units like "north" or "east." Similarly, the overall meanings of named entities like "Neil Young" and multi-word expressions like "break a leg" cannot be directly inferred from their constituent tokens. Mechanistically, how do LLMs convert such arbitrary groups of tokens into useful higher-level representations? In this work, we find that last token representations of named entities and multi-token words exhibit a pronounced "erasure" effect, where information about previous and current tokens is rapidly forgotten in early layers. Using this observation, we propose a method to "read out" the implicit vocabulary of an autoregressive LLM by examining differences in token representations across layers, and present results of this method for Llama-2-7b and Llama-3-8B. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to probe the implicit vocabulary of an LLM.


Investigating the Timescales of Language Processing with EEG and Language Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This study explores the temporal dynamics of language processing by examining the alignment between word representations from a pre-trained transformer-based language model, and EEG data. Using a Temporal Response Function (TRF) model, we investigate how neural activity corresponds to model representations across different layers, revealing insights into the interaction between artificial language models and brain responses during language comprehension. Our analysis reveals patterns in TRFs from distinct layers, highlighting varying contributions to lexical and compositional processing. Additionally, we used linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to isolate part-of-speech (POS) representations, offering insights into their influence on neural responses and the underlying mechanisms of syntactic processing. These findings underscore EEG's utility for probing language processing dynamics with high temporal resolution. By bridging artificial language models and neural activity, this study advances our understanding of their interaction at fine timescales.


Scaling Synthetic Data Creation with 1,000,000,000 Personas

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a novel persona-driven data synthesis methodology that leverages various perspectives within a large language model (LLM) to create diverse synthetic data. To fully exploit this methodology at scale, we introduce Persona Hub -- a collection of 1 billion diverse personas automatically curated from web data. These 1 billion personas (~13% of the world's total population), acting as distributed carriers of world knowledge, can tap into almost every perspective encapsulated within the LLM, thereby facilitating the creation of diverse synthetic data at scale for various scenarios. By showcasing Persona Hub's use cases in synthesizing high-quality mathematical and logical reasoning problems, instructions (i.e., user prompts), knowledge-rich texts, game NPCs and tools (functions) at scale, we demonstrate persona-driven data synthesis is versatile, scalable, flexible, and easy to use, potentially driving a paradigm shift in synthetic data creation and applications in practice, which may have a profound impact on LLM research and development.


A Simple Attention-Based Mechanism for Bimodal Emotion Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Big data contain rich information for machine learning algorithms to utilize when learning important features during classification tasks. Human beings express their emotion using certain words, speech (tone, pitch, speed) or facial expression. Artificial Intelligence approach to emotion classification are largely based on learning from textual information. However, public datasets containing text and speech data provide sufficient resources to train machine learning algorithms for the tack of emotion classification. In this paper, we present novel bimodal deep learning-based architectures enhanced with attention mechanism trained and tested on text and speech data for emotion classification. We report details of different deep learning based architectures and show the performance of each architecture including rigorous error analyses. Our finding suggests that deep learning based architectures trained on different types of data (text and speech) outperform architectures trained only on text or speech. Our proposed attention-based bimodal architecture outperforms several state-of-the-art systems in emotion classification.


Towards Secure and Efficient Data Scheduling for Vehicular Social Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficient data transmission scheduling within vehicular environments poses a significant challenge due to the high mobility of such networks. Contemporary research predominantly centers on crafting cooperative scheduling algorithms tailored for vehicular networks. Notwithstanding, the intricacies of orchestrating scheduling in vehicular social networks both effectively and efficiently remain formidable. This paper introduces an innovative learning-based algorithm for scheduling data transmission that prioritizes efficiency and security within vehicular social networks. The algorithm first uses a specifically constructed neural network to enhance data processing capabilities. After this, it incorporates a Q-learning paradigm during the data transmission phase to optimize the information exchange, the privacy of which is safeguarded by differential privacy through the communication process. Comparative experiments demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed Q-learning enhanced scheduling algorithm relative to existing state-of-the-art scheduling algorithms in the context of vehicular social networks.