We investigate quantile regression based on the pinball loss and the ǫ-insensitive loss.

Adaptation to other initially unknown agents often requires computing an effective counter-strategy. In the Bayesian paradigm, one must find a good counter-strategy to the inferred posterior of the other agents' behavior. In the experts paradigm, one may want to choose experts that are good counter-strategies to the other agents' expected behavior. In this paper we introduce a technique for computing robust counter-strategies for adaptation in multiagent scenarios under a variety of paradigms. The strategies can take advantage of a suspected tendency in the decisions of the other agents, while bounding the worst-case performance when the tendency is not observed. The technique involves solving a modified game, and therefore can make use of recently developed algorithms for solving very large extensive games. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the technique in two-player Texas Hold'em. We show that the computed poker strategies are substantially more robust than best response counter-strategies, while still exploiting a suspected tendency. We also compose the generated strategies in an experts algorithm showing a dramatic improvement in performance over using simple best responses.

A central tenet of the Bayesian program is the representation of beliefs by distributions, which assign probability to each of a set of hypotheses.

This paper explores the use of a Maximal Average Margin (MAM) optimality principle for the design of learning algorithms. It is shown that the application of this risk minimization principle results in a class of (computationally) simple learning machines similar to the classical Parzen window classifier. A direct relation with the Rademacher complexities is established, as such facilitating analysis and providing a notion of certainty of prediction. This analysis is related to Support Vector Machines by means of a margin transformation. The power of the MAM principle is illustrated further by application to ordinal regression tasks, resulting in an $O(n)$ algorithm able to process large datasets in reasonable time.

Extensive games are a powerful model of multiagent decision-making scenarios with incomplete information. Finding a Nash equilibrium for very large instances of these games has received a great deal of recent attention. In this paper, we describe a new technique for solving large games based on regret minimization. In particular, we introduce the notion of counterfactual regret, which exploits the degree of incomplete information in an extensive game. We show how minimizing counterfactual regret minimizes overall regret, and therefore in self-play can be used to compute a Nash equilibrium. We demonstrate this technique in the domain of poker, showing we can solve abstractions of limit Texas Hold'em with as many as 10

We describe an efficient learning procedure for multilayer generative models that combine the best aspects of Markov random fields and deep, directed belief nets. The generative models can be learned one layer at a time and when learning is complete they have a very fast inference procedure for computing a good approximation to the posterior distribution in all of the hidden layers. Each hidden layer has its own MRF whose energy function is modulated by the top-down directed connections from the layer above. To generate from the model, each layer in turn must settle to equilibrium given its top-down input. We show that this type of model is good at capturing the statistics of patches of natural images.

We consider the problem of Support Vector Machine transduction, which involves a combinatorial problem with exponential computational complexity in the number of unlabeled examples. Although several studies are devoted to Transductive SVM, they suffer either from the high computation complexity or from the solutions of local optimum. To address this problem, we propose solving Transductive SVM via a convex relaxation, which converts the NP-hard problem to a semi-definite programming. Compared with the other SDP relaxation for Transductive SVM, the proposed algorithm is computationally more efficient with the number of free parameters reduced from O(n2) to O(n) where n is the number of examples. Empirical study with several benchmark data sets shows the promising performance of the proposed algorithm in comparison with other state-of-the-art implementations of Transductive SVM.

We study the following question: is the two-dimensional structure of images a very strong prior or is it something that can be learned with a few examples of natural images? If someone gave us a learning task involving images for which the two-dimensional topology of pixels was not known, could we discover it automatically and exploit it? For example suppose that the pixels had been permuted in a fixed but unknown way, could we recover the relative two-dimensional location of pixels on images? The surprising result presented here is that not only the answer is yes but that about as few as a thousand images are enough to approximately recover the relative locations of about a thousand pixels. This is achieved using a manifold learning algorithm applied to pixels associated with a measure of distributional similarity between pixel intensities. We compare different topology-extraction approaches and show how having the two-dimensional topology can be exploited.

Empirical risk minimization offers well-known learning guarantees when training and test data come from the same domain. In the real world, though, we often wish to adapt a classifier from a source domain with a large amount of training data to different target domain with very little training data. In this work we give uniform convergence bounds for algorithms that minimize a convex combination of source and target empirical risk. The bounds explicitly model the inherent trade-off between training on a large but inaccurate source data set and a small but accurate target training set. Our theory also gives results when we have multiple source domains, each of which may have a different number of instances, and we exhibit cases in which minimizing a non-uniform combination of source risks can achieve much lower target error than standard empirical risk minimization.

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