Delaware County
The study of short texts in digital politics: Document aggregation for topic modeling
Nakka, Nitheesha, Yalcin, Omer F., Desmarais, Bruce A., Rajtmajer, Sarah, Monroe, Burt
Statistical topic modeling is widely used in political science to study text. Researchers examine documents of varying lengths, from tweets to speeches. There is ongoing debate on how document length affects the interpretability of topic models. We investigate the effects of aggregating short documents into larger ones based on natural units that partition the corpus. In our study, we analyze one million tweets by U.S. state legislators from April 2016 to September 2020. We find that for documents aggregated at the account level, topics are more associated with individual states than when using individual tweets. This finding is replicated with Wikipedia pages aggregated by birth cities, showing how document definitions can impact topic modeling results.
Enhancing Supply Chain Resilience with Metaverse and ChatGPT Technologies
Global supply lines have been severely disrupted by the COVID-19 epidemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which has sharply increased the price of commodities and generated inflation. These incidents highlight how critical it is to improve supply chain resilience (SCRES) in order to fend off unforeseen setbacks. Controlling both internal and external interruptions, such as transportation problems brought on by natural catastrophes and wars, is the responsibility of SCRES. Enhancing resilience in supply chains requires accurate and timely information transfer. Promising answers to these problems can be found in the Metaverse and ChatGPT, two new digital technologies. The Metaverse may imitate real-world situations and offer dynamic, real-time 3D representations of supply chain data by integrating blockchain, IoT, network connection, and computer power.Large-scale natural language processing model ChatGPT improves communication and data translation accuracy and speed. To manage risk and facilitate decision making in Supply Chain management, firms should increase information transmission, Speed and quality. This study aim to show the importance of ChatGPT and Metaverse technologies to improve SCRES, with an emphasis on the most important criteria for SCRES, and maturity factor that can influence directly the SC development.
Neural network interpretability with layer-wise relevance propagation: novel techniques for neuron selection and visualization
Bhati, Deepshikha, Neha, Fnu, Amiruzzaman, Md, Guercio, Angela, Shukla, Deepak Kumar, Ward, Ben
Interpreting complex neural networks is crucial for understanding their decision-making processes, particularly in applications where transparency and accountability are essential. This proposed method addresses this need by focusing on layer-wise Relevance Propagation (LRP), a technique used in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to attribute neural network outputs to input features through backpropagated relevance scores. Existing LRP methods often struggle with precision in evaluating individual neuron contributions. To overcome this limitation, we present a novel approach that improves the parsing of selected neurons during LRP backward propagation, using the Visual Geometry Group 16 (VGG16) architecture as a case study. Our method creates neural network graphs to highlight critical paths and visualizes these paths with heatmaps, optimizing neuron selection through accuracy metrics like Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE). Additionally, we utilize a deconvolutional visualization technique to reconstruct feature maps, offering a comprehensive view of the network's inner workings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach enhances interpretability and supports the development of more transparent artificial intelligence (AI) systems for computer vision applications. This advancement has the potential to improve the trustworthiness of AI models in real-world machine vision applications, thereby increasing their reliability and effectiveness.
A Tiered GAN Approach for Monet-Style Image Generation
Neha, FNU, Bhati, Deepshikha, Shukla, Deepak Kumar, Amiruzzaman, Md
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) have proven to be a powerful tool in generating artistic images, capable of mimicking the styles of renowned painters, such as Claude Monet. This paper introduces a tiered GAN model to progressively refine image quality through a multi-stage process, enhancing the generated images at each step. The model transforms random noise into detailed artistic representations, addressing common challenges such as instability in training, mode collapse, and output quality. This approach combines downsampling and convolutional techniques, enabling the generation of high-quality Monet-style artwork while optimizing computational efficiency. Experimental results demonstrate the architecture's ability to produce foundational artistic structures, though further refinements are necessary for achieving higher levels of realism and fidelity to Monet's style. Future work focuses on improving training methodologies and model complexity to bridge the gap between generated and true artistic images. Additionally, the limitations of traditional GANs in artistic generation are analyzed, and strategies to overcome these shortcomings are proposed.
From classical techniques to convolution-based models: A review of object detection algorithms
Neha, Fnu, Bhati, Deepshikha, Shukla, Deepak Kumar, Amiruzzaman, Md
Object detection is a fundamental task in computer vision and image understanding, with the goal of identifying and localizing objects of interest within an image while assigning them corresponding class labels. Traditional methods, which relied on handcrafted features and shallow models, struggled with complex visual data and showed limited performance. These methods combined low-level features with contextual information and lacked the ability to capture high-level semantics. Deep learning, especially Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), addressed these limitations by automatically learning rich, hierarchical features directly from data. These features include both semantic and high-level representations essential for accurate object detection. This paper reviews object detection frameworks, starting with classical computer vision methods. We categorize object detection approaches into two groups: (1) classical computer vision techniques and (2) CNN-based detectors. We compare major CNN models, discussing their strengths and limitations. In conclusion, this review highlights the significant advancements in object detection through deep learning and identifies key areas for further research to improve performance.
Text2TimeSeries: Enhancing Financial Forecasting through Time Series Prediction Updates with Event-Driven Insights from Large Language Models
Kurisinkel, Litton Jose, Mishra, Pruthwik, Zhang, Yue
Time series models, typically trained on numerical data, are designed to forecast future values. These models often rely on weighted averaging techniques over time intervals. However, real-world time series data is seldom isolated and is frequently influenced by non-numeric factors. For instance, stock price fluctuations are impacted by daily random events in the broader world, with each event exerting a unique influence on price signals. Previously, forecasts in financial markets have been approached in two main ways: either as time-series problems over price sequence or sentiment analysis tasks. The sentiment analysis tasks aim to determine whether news events will have a positive or negative impact on stock prices, often categorizing them into discrete labels. Recognizing the need for a more comprehensive approach to accurately model time series prediction, we propose a collaborative modeling framework that incorporates textual information about relevant events for predictions. Specifically, we leverage the intuition of large language models about future changes to update real number time series predictions. We evaluated the effectiveness of our approach on financial market data.
The Economic Implications of Large Language Model Selection on Earnings and Return on Investment: A Decision Theoretic Model
Xexéo, Geraldo, Braida, Filipe, Parreiras, Marcus, Xavier, Paulo
Selecting language models in business contexts requires a careful analysis of the final financial benefits of the investment. However, the emphasis of academia and industry analysis of LLM is solely on performance. This work introduces a framework to evaluate LLMs, focusing on the earnings and return on investment aspects that should be taken into account in business decision making. We use a decision-theoretic approach to compare the financial impact of different LLMs, considering variables such as the cost per token, the probability of success in the specific task, and the gain and losses associated with LLMs use. The study reveals how the superior accuracy of more expensive models can, under certain conditions, justify a greater investment through more significant earnings but not necessarily a larger RoI. This article provides a framework for companies looking to optimize their technology choices, ensuring that investment in cutting-edge technology aligns with strategic financial objectives. In addition, we discuss how changes in operational variables influence the economics of using LLMs, offering practical insights for enterprise settings, finding that the predicted gain and loss and the different probabilities of success and failure are the variables that most impact the sensitivity of the models.
A Universal Knowledge Model and Cognitive Architecture for Prototyping AGI
Sukhobokov, Artem, Belousov, Evgeny, Gromozdov, Danila, Zenger, Anna, Popov, Ilya
The article identified 42 cognitive architectures for creating general artificial intelligence (AGI) and proposed a set of interrelated functional blocks that an agent approaching AGI in its capabilities should possess. Since the required set of blocks is not found in any of the existing architectures, the article proposes a new cognitive architecture for intelligent systems approaching AGI in their capabilities. As one of the key solutions within the framework of the architecture, a universal method of knowledge representation is proposed, which allows combining various non-formalized, partially and fully formalized methods of knowledge representation in a single knowledge base, such as texts in natural languages, images, audio and video recordings, graphs, algorithms, databases, neural networks, knowledge graphs, ontologies, frames, essence-property-relation models, production systems, predicate calculus models, conceptual models, and others. To combine and structure various fragments of knowledge, archigraph models are used, constructed as a development of annotated metagraphs. As components, the cognitive architecture being developed includes machine consciousness, machine subconsciousness, blocks of interaction with the external environment, a goal management block, an emotional control system, a block of social interaction, a block of reflection, an ethics block and a worldview block, a learning block, a monitoring block, blocks of statement and solving problems, self-organization and meta learning block.
Simulating the Air Quality Impact of Prescribed Fires Using a Graph Neural Network-Based PM$_{2.5}$ Emissions Forecasting System
Liao, Kyleen, Buch, Jatan, Lamb, Kara, Gentine, Pierre
The increasing size and severity of wildfires across western North America have generated dangerous levels of PM$_{2.5}$ pollution in recent years. In a warming climate, expanding the use of prescribed fires is widely considered to be the most robust fire mitigation strategy. However, reliably forecasting the potential air quality impact from these prescribed fires, a critical ingredient in determining the fires' location and time, at hourly to daily time scales remains a challenging problem. This paper proposes a novel integration of prescribed fire simulation with a spatio-temporal graph neural network-based PM$_{2.5}$ forecasting model. The experiments in this work focus on determining the optimal time for implementing prescribed fires in California as well as quantifying the potential air quality trade-offs involved in conducting more prescribed fires outside the fire season.
Mapping historical forest biomass for stock-change assessments at parcel to landscape scales
Johnson, Lucas K., Mahoney, Michael J., Desrochers, Madeleine L., Beier, Colin M.
Understanding historical forest dynamics, specifically changes in forest biomass and carbon stocks, has become critical for assessing current forest climate benefits and projecting future benefits under various policy, regulatory, and stewardship scenarios. Carbon accounting frameworks based exclusively on national forest inventories are limited to broad-scale estimates, but model-based approaches that combine these inventories with remotely sensed data can yield contiguous fine-resolution maps of forest biomass and carbon stocks across landscapes over time. Here we describe a fundamental step in building a map-based stock-change framework: mapping historical forest biomass at fine temporal and spatial resolution (annual, 30m) across all of New York State (USA) from 1990 to 2019, using freely available data and open-source tools. Using Landsat imagery, US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, and off-the-shelf LiDAR collections we developed three modeling approaches for mapping historical forest aboveground biomass (AGB): training on FIA plot-level AGB estimates (direct), training on LiDAR-derived AGB maps (indirect), and an ensemble averaging predictions from the direct and indirect models. Model prediction surfaces (maps) were tested against FIA estimates at multiple scales. All three approaches produced viable outputs, yet tradeoffs were evident in terms of model complexity, map accuracy, saturation, and fine-scale pattern representation. The resulting map products can help identify where, when, and how forest carbon stocks are changing as a result of both anthropogenic and natural drivers alike. These products can thus serve as inputs to a wide range of applications including stock-change assessments, monitoring reporting and verification frameworks, and prioritizing parcels for protection or enrollment in improved management programs.