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Advanced Torrential Loss Function for Precipitation Forecasting

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate precipitation forecasting is becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change. In response, machine learning-based approaches have recently gained attention as an emerging alternative to traditional methods such as numerical weather prediction and climate models. Nonetheless, many recent approaches still rely on off-the-shelf loss functions, and even the more advanced ones merely involve optimization processes based on the critical success index (CSI). The problem, however, is that CSI may become ineffective during extended dry periods when precipitation remains below the threshold, rendering it less than ideal as a criterion for optimization. To address this limitation, we introduce a simple penalty expression and reinterpret it as a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) formulation. Ultimately, the resulting QUBO formulation is relaxed into a differentiable advanced torrential (AT) loss function through an approximation process. The proposed AT loss demonstrates its superiority through the Lipschitz constant, forecast performance evaluations, consistency experiments, and ablation studies with the operational model.



Physics-Informed Multimodal Bearing Fault Classification under Variable Operating Conditions using Transfer Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate and interpretable bearing fault classification is critical for ensuring the reliability of rotating machinery, particularly under variable operating conditions where domain shifts can significantly degrade model performance. This study proposes a physics-informed multimodal convolutional neural network (CNN) with a late fusion architecture, integrating vibration and motor current signals alongside a dedicated physics-based feature extraction branch. The model incorporates a novel physics-informed loss function that penalizes physically implausible predictions based on characteristic bearing fault frequencies - Ball Pass Frequency Outer (BPFO) and Ball Pass Frequency Inner (BPFI) - derived from bearing geometry and shaft speed. Comprehensive experiments on the Paderborn University dataset demonstrate that the proposed physics-informed approach consistently outperforms a non-physics-informed baseline, achieving higher accuracy, reduced false classifications, and improved robustness across multiple data splits. To address performance degradation under unseen operating conditions, three transfer learning (TL) strategies - Target-Specific Fine-Tuning (TSFT), Layer-Wise Adaptation Strategy (LAS), and Hybrid Feature Reuse (HFR) - are evaluated. Results show that LAS yields the best generalization, with additional performance gains when combined with physics-informed modeling. Validation on the KAIST bearing dataset confirms the framework's cross-dataset applicability, achieving up to 98 percent accuracy. Statistical hypothesis testing further verifies significant improvements (p < 0.01) in classification performance. The proposed framework demonstrates the potential of integrating domain knowledge with data-driven learning to achieve robust, interpretable, and generalizable fault diagnosis for real-world industrial applications.


Meta-Reinforcement Learning for Fast and Data-Efficient Spectrum Allocation in Dynamic Wireless Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The dynamic allocation of spectrum in 5G / 6G networks is critical to efficient resource utilization. However, applying traditional deep reinforcement learning (DRL) is often infeasible due to its immense sample complexity and the safety risks associated with unguided exploration, which can cause severe network interference. To address these challenges, we propose a meta-learning framework that enables agents to learn a robust initial policy and rapidly adapt to new wireless scenarios with minimal data. We implement three meta-learning architectures, model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML), recurrent neural network (RNN), and an attention-enhanced RNN, and evaluate them against a non-meta-learning DRL algorithm, proximal policy optimization (PPO) baseline, in a simulated dynamic integrated access/backhaul (IAB) environment. Our results show a clear performance gap. The attention-based meta-learning agent reaches a peak mean network throughput of 48 Mbps, while the PPO baseline decreased drastically to 10 Mbps. Furthermore, our method reduces SINR and latency violations by more than 50% compared to PPO. It also shows quick adaptation, with a fairness index 0.7, showing better resource allocation. This work proves that meta-learning is a very effective and safer option for intelligent control in complex wireless systems.


HRRRCast: a data-driven emulator for regional weather forecasting at convection allowing scales

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model is a convection-allowing model used in operational weather forecasting across the contiguous United States (CONUS). To provide a computationally efficient alternative, we introduce HRRRCast, a data-driven emulator built with advanced machine learning techniques. HRRRCast includes two architectures: a ResNet-based model (ResHRRR) and a Graph Neural Network-based model (GraphHRRR). ResHRRR utilizes convolutional neural networks enhanced with squeeze-and-excitation blocks and Feature-wise Linear Modulation, and supports probabilistic forecasting via the Denois-ing Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM). To better handle longer lead times, we train a single model to predict multiple lead times (1h, 3h, and 6h), and then use a greedy rollout strategy during inference. When evaluated on composite reflectivity over the full CONUS domain using ensembles of 3 to 10 members, ResHRRR outperforms HRRR forecast at light rainfall threshold (20 dBZ) and achieves competitive performance at moderate thresholds (30 dBZ). Our work advances the pioneering StormCast model described in Pathak et al. [21] by: a) training on the full CONUS domain, b) training on multiple lead times to improve long-range performance, c) using analysis data for training instead of the +1h post-analysis data inadvertently used in StormCast, and d) incorporating future Global Forecast System (GFS) weather states as inputs, adding a downscaling component that significantly improves long-lead forecast accuracy. Grid-based, neighborhood-based, and object-based verification metrics confirm improved storm placement, lower frequency bias, and enhanced success ratios compared to HRRR. Additionally, HRRRCast's ensemble forecasts maintain sharper spatial detail and reduced blurriness than deterministic baselines, with power spectra more closely matching HRRR analysis. While GraphHRRR underperforms in its current form, it lays the groundwork for future probabilistic graph-based forecasting. Overall, HRRRCast represents a step toward efficient, data-driven regional weather prediction with competitive accuracy and ensemble capability. Introduction Recent advances in machine learning weather prediction (MLWP) have shown great promise in complementing or even replacing traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems, particularly at global scales. Several studies have demonstrated that data-driven models can rival the skill of physics-based models at a fraction of the computational cost, enabling applications such as ensemble forecasting and climate downscaling with greater efficiency [2, 12, 13, 23, 18, 17]. However, while progress in global MLWP is substantial, the transition to high-resolution regional forecasting-especially at convection-allowing scales (km-scale) - remains an active area of research. These authors have made equal contributions.


Novel Pigeon-inspired 3D Obstacle Detection and Avoidance Maneuver for Multi-UAV Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Recent advances in multi - agent systems manipulation have demonstrated a rising demand for the implementation of multi - UAV systems in urban areas, which are always subjected to the presence of static and dynamic obstacles. Inspired by the collective behavior of tilapia fish and pigeons, the focus of the presented research is on the introduction of a nature - inspired collision - free formation control for a multi - UAV system, considering the obstacle avoidance maneuvers. The developed framework in this study utilizes a semi - distributed control approach, in which, based on a probabilistic Lloyd's algorithm, a centralized guidance algorithm works for optimal positioning of the UAVs, while a distributed control approach has been used for the intervehicle collision and obstacle avoidance. Further, the presented framework has been extended to the 3D space with a novel definition of 3D maneuvers. Collision Avoidance, Centroidal Voronoi Tessellation, Distributed Control, Formation Control, Multi - Agent System, Obstacle Avoidance . From an engineering perspective, swarm intelligence shows how decentralized systems, composed of numerous simple agents, can achieve complex collective behaviors.


Ultra-Low-Power Spiking Neurons in 7 nm FinFET Technology: A Comparative Analysis of Leaky Integrate-and-Fire, Morris-Lecar, and Axon-Hillock Architectures

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Neuromorphic computing aims to replicate the brain's remarkable energy efficiency and parallel processing capabilities for large-scale artificial intelligence applications. In this work, we present a comprehensive comparative study of three spiking neuron circuit architectures-Leaky-Integrate-and-Fire (LIF), Morris-Lecar (ML), and Axon-Hillock (AH)-implemented in a 7 nm FinFET technology. Through extensive SPICE simulations, we explore the optimization of spiking frequency, energy per spike, and static power consumption. Our results show that the AH design achieves the highest throughput, demonstrating multi-gigahertz firing rates (up to 3 GHz) with attojoule energy costs. By contrast, the ML architecture excels in subthreshold to near-threshold regimes, offering robust low-power operation (as low as 0.385 aJ/spike) and biological bursting behavior. Although LIF benefits from a decoupled current mirror for high-frequency operation, it exhibits slightly higher static leakage compared to ML and AH at elevated supply voltages. Comparisons with previous node implementations (22 nm planar, 28 nm) reveal that 7 nm FinFETs can drastically boost energy efficiency and speed albeit at the cost of increased subthreshold leakage in deep subthreshold regions. By quantifying design trade-offs for each neuron architecture, our work provides a roadmap for optimizing spiking neuron circuits in advanced nanoscale technologies to deliver neuromorphic hardware capable of both ultra-low-power operation and high computational throughput.