The discovery from the Trinity nuclear test site shows how extreme conditions can result in materials never before seen in nature or in the lab. The new material is a clathrate made of calcium, copper, and silicon . During the Trinity nuclear test on July 16, 1945, in the New Mexico desert--the world's very first test of an atomic bomb --a new material spontaneously formed. It was discovered only recently, by an international research team coordinated by geologist Luca Bindi at the University of Florence, which identified the novel clathrate based on calcium, copper, and silicon. It's a material never before observed either in nature or as an artificial compound created in the laboratory.

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Adversarial examples for neural network image classifiers are known to be transferable: examples optimized to be misclassified by a source classifier are often misclassified as well by classifiers with different architectures. However, targeted adversarial examples--optimized to be classified as a chosen target class--tend to be less transferable between architectures. While prior research on constructing transferable targeted attacks has focused on improving the optimization procedure, in this work we examine the role of the source classifier. Here, we show that training the source classifier to be "slightly robust"--that is, robust to small-magnitude adversarial examples--substantially improves the transferability of class-targeted and representation-targeted adversarial attacks, even between architectures as different as convolutional neural networks and transformers. The results we present provide insight into the nature of adversarial examples as well as the mechanisms underlying so-called "robust" classifiers.

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Computational models support high-stakes decisions across engineering and science, and practitioners increasingly seek probabilistic predictions to quantify uncertainty in such models. Existing approaches generate predictions either by sampling input parameter distributions or by augmenting deterministic outputs with uncertainty representations, including distribution-free and distributional methods. However, sampling-based methods are often computationally prohibitive for real-time applications, and many existing uncertainty representations either ignore input dependence or rely on restrictive Gaussian assumptions that fail to capture asymmetry and heavy-tailed behavior. Therefore, we extend the ACCurate and Reliable Uncertainty Estimate (ACCRUE) framework to learn input-dependent, non-Gaussian uncertainty distributions, specifically two-piece Gaussian and asymmetric Laplace forms, using a neural network trained with a loss function that balances predictive accuracy and reliability. Through synthetic and real-world experiments, we show that the proposed approach captures an input-dependent uncertainty structure and improves probabilistic forecasts relative to existing methods, while maintaining flexibility to model skewed and non-Gaussian errors.

This study presents a conditional flow matching framework for solving physics-constrained Bayesian inverse problems. In this setting, samples from the joint distribution of inferred variables and measurements are assumed available, while explicit evaluation of the prior and likelihood densities is not required. We derive a simple and self-contained formulation of both the unconditional and conditional flow matching algorithms, tailored specifically to inverse problems. In the conditional setting, a neural network is trained to learn the velocity field of a probability flow ordinary differential equation that transports samples from a chosen source distribution directly to the posterior distribution conditioned on observed measurements. This black-box formulation accommodates nonlinear, high-dimensional, and potentially non-differentiable forward models without restrictive assumptions on the noise model. We further analyze the behavior of the learned velocity field in the regime of finite training data. Under mild architectural assumptions, we show that overtraining can induce degenerate behavior in the generated conditional distributions, including variance collapse and a phenomenon termed selective memorization, wherein generated samples concentrate around training data points associated with similar observations. A simplified theoretical analysis explains this behavior, and numerical experiments confirm it in practice. We demonstrate that standard early-stopping criteria based on monitoring test loss effectively mitigate such degeneracy. The proposed method is evaluated on several physics-based inverse problems. We investigate the impact of different choices of source distributions, including Gaussian and data-informed priors. Across these examples, conditional flow matching accurately captures complex, multimodal posterior distributions while maintaining computational efficiency.

We propose closed-form conditional diffusion models for data assimilation. Diffusion models use data to learn the score function (defined as the gradient of the log-probability density of a data distribution), allowing them to generate new samples from the data distribution by reversing a noise injection process. While it is common to train neural networks to approximate the score function, we leverage the analytical tractability of the score function to assimilate the states of a system with measurements. To enable the efficient evaluation of the score function, we use kernel density estimation to model the joint distribution of the states and their corresponding measurements. The proposed approach also inherits the capability of conditional diffusion models of operating in black-box settings, i.e., the proposed data assimilation approach can accommodate systems and measurement processes without their explicit knowledge. The ability to accommodate black-box systems combined with the superior capabilities of diffusion models in approximating complex, non-Gaussian probability distributions means that the proposed approach offers advantages over many widely used filtering methods. We evaluate the proposed method on nonlinear data assimilation problems based on the Lorenz-63 and Lorenz-96 systems of moderate dimensionality and nonlinear measurement models. Results show the proposed approach outperforms the widely used ensemble Kalman and particle filters when small to moderate ensemble sizes are used.