The movement to strengthen democracy in America is suffering as a surfeit of advocacy groups is crowding an ecosystem of nonprofits, coalitions, and think tanks.

Distribution-free uncertainty estimation for ensemble methods is increasingly desirable due to the widening deployment of multi-modal black-box predictive models. Conformal prediction is one approach that avoids making strong distributional assumptions. Methods for conformal aggregation have been proposed for ensembled prediction, where the prediction regions of individual models are merged to retain coverage guarantees while minimizing conservatism. Merging the prediction regions directly, however, can miss out on opportunities to further reduce conservatism by exploiting structures present in the conformal scores. We, therefore, propose a novel framework that extends the standard scalar formulation of a score function to a multivariate score that produces more efficient prediction regions. We then demonstrate that such a framework can be efficiently leveraged in both classification and predict-then-optimize regression settings downstream and empirically show the advantage over alternate conformal aggregation methods.

Correlation Clustering (CC) is a foundational problem in unsupervised learning that models binary similarity relations using labeled graphs. While classical CC has been widely studied, many real-world applications involve more nuanced relationships, either multi-class categorical interactions or varying confidence levels in edge labels. To address these, two natural generalizations have been proposed: Chromatic Correlation Clustering, which assigns semantic colors to edge labels, and pseudometric-weighted Correlation Clustering, which allows edge weights satisfying the triangle inequality. In this paper, we develop improved approximation algorithms for both settings. Our approach leverages LP-based pivoting techniques combined with problem-specific rounding functions. For the pseudometric-weighted correlation clustering problem, we present a tight 103 approximation algorithm, matching the best possible bound achievable within the framework of standard LP relaxation combined with specialized rounding. For the Chromatic Correlation Clustering (CCC) problem, we improve the approximation ratio from the previous best of 2.5 to 2.15, and we establish a lower bound of 2.11within the same analytical framework, highlighting the near-optimality of our result.

Recent progress in large language models (LLMs) highlights the power of scaling test-time compute to achieve strong performance on complex tasks, such as mathematical reasoning and code generation. This raises a critical question: how should model training be modified to optimize performance under a subsequent test-time compute strategy and budget? To explore this, we focus on pass@N, a simple test-time strategy that searches for a correct answer in N independent samples. We show, surprisingly, that training with cross-entropy (CE) loss can be misaligned with pass@N in that pass@N accuracy decreases with longer training. We explain the origins of this misalignment in terms of model overconfidence induced by CE, and experimentally verify our prediction of overconfidence as an impediment to scaling test-time compute via pass@N. Furthermore we suggest a principled, modified training loss that is better aligned to pass@N by limiting model confidence and rescuing pass@N test performance. Our algorithm demonstrates improved mathematical reasoning on MATH and MiniF2F benchmarks under several scenarios: (1) providing answers to math questions; and (2) proving theorems by searching over proof trees of varying shapes. Overall our work underscores the importance of co-designing two traditionally separate phases of LLM development: training-time protocols and test-time search and reasoning strategies.

Summary: Neural networks are a commonly used prediction tool in computer science and statistics. However, the barrier to entry of this interesting field remains high, particularly for classical statisticians trained in a frequentist perspective. In this letter, we demystify neural networks by describing networks that approximate a linear regression and describe common customizations that provide a foundation for further study.

We study a two-sided market, wherein, price-sensitive heterogeneous customers and servers arrive and join their respective queues. A compatible customer-server pair can then be matched by the platform, at which point, they leave the system. Our objective is to design pricing and matching algorithms that maximize the platform's profit, while maintaining reasonable queue lengths. As the demand and supply curves governing the price-dependent arrival rates may not be known in practice, we design a novel online-learning-based pricing policy and establish its near-optimality. In particular, we prove a tradeoff among three performance metrics: OpT1 γq regret, OpTγ{2q average queue length, and OpTγq maximum queue length for γ P p0,1{6s, significantly improving over existing results [1]. Moreover, barring the permissible range of γ, we show that this trade-off between regret and average queue length is optimal up to logarithmic factors under a class of policies, matching the optimal one as in [2] which assumes the demand and supply curves to be known. Our proposed policy has two noteworthy features: a dynamic component that optimizes the tradeoff between low regret and small queue lengths; and a probabilistic component that resolves the tension between obtaining useful samples for fast learning and maintaining small queue lengths.

In the approximate quantiles problem, the goal is to output mquantile estimates, the ranks of which are as close as possible to m given quantiles 0 q1 qm 1. We present a mechanism for approximate quantiles that satisfies ε-differential privacy for a dataset of n real numbers where the ratio between the distance between the closest pair of points and the size of the domain is bounded by ψ.

Designing optimal Bayes filters for nonlinear non-Gaussian systems is a challenging task. The main difficulties are: 1) representing complex beliefs, 2) handling non-Gaussian noise, and 3) marginalizing past states. To address these challenges, we focus on polynomial systems and propose the Max Entropy Moment Kalman Filter (MEM-KF). To address 1), we represent arbitrary beliefs by a MomentConstrained Max-Entropy Distribution (MED). The MED can asymptotically approximate almost any distribution given an increasing number of moment constraints. To address 2), we model the noise in the process and observation model as MED. To address 3), we propagate the moments through the process model and recover the distribution as MED, thus avoiding symbolic integration, which is generally intractable. All the steps in MEM-KF, including the extraction of a point estimate, can be solved via convex optimization.

Large-scale hypothesis testing supports probability claims about individual hypotheses, as in empirical Bayes methods for estimating local false discovery rates. We study how such claims can be interpreted as approximately calibrated forecasts of the null hypothesis, yielding interpretable error probabilities even under model misspecification. Our approach draws conceptual inspiration from probabilistic forecasting but addresses a different challenge: unlike forecasting, where labels are eventually observed, in multiple testing the ground truth is never revealed, so calibration must be assessed stochastically and established indirectly. We address this challenge by constructing a set of pseudo-labels, derived from the spacings of ordered $p$-values, which have the local false discovery rate as their regression target. Our construction unlocks existing tools for assessing and performing post-hoc calibration in multiple testing. Notably, we find on a large-scale empirical survey of published psychology and neuroscience literature that the $q$-value, a popular error measure based on the false discovery rate, can be severely miscalibrated.

We consider the graph alignment problem, wherein the objective is to find a vertex correspondence between two graphs that maximizes the edge overlap. The graph alignment problem is an instance of the quadratic assignment problem (QAP), known to be NP-hard in the worst case even to approximately solve. In this paper, we analyze Birkhoff relaxation, a tight convex relaxation of QAP, and present theoretical guarantees on its performance when the inputs follow the Gaussian Wigner Model. More specifically, the weighted adjacency matrices are correlated Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble with correlation 1/ 1+σ2 .