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A Multi-Modal Wildfire Prediction and Personalized Early-Warning System Based on a Novel Machine Learning Framework

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires are increasingly impacting the environment, human health and safety. Among the top 20 California wildfires, those in 2020-2021 burned more acres than the last century combined. California's 2018 wildfire season caused damages of $148.5 billion. Among millions of impacted people, those living with disabilities (around 15% of the world population) are disproportionately impacted due to inadequate means of alerts. In this project, a multi-modal wildfire prediction and personalized early warning system has been developed based on an advanced machine learning architecture. Sensor data from the Environmental Protection Agency and historical wildfire data from 2012 to 2018 have been compiled to establish a comprehensive wildfire database, the largest of its kind. Next, a novel U-Convolutional-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) neural network was designed with a special architecture for extracting key spatial and temporal features from contiguous environmental parameters indicative of impending wildfires. Environmental and meteorological factors were incorporated into the database and classified as leading indicators and trailing indicators, correlated to risks of wildfire conception and propagation respectively. Additionally, geological data was used to provide better wildfire risk assessment. This novel spatio-temporal neural network achieved >97% accuracy vs. around 76% using traditional convolutional neural networks, successfully predicting 2018's five most devastating wildfires 5-14 days in advance. Finally, a personalized early warning system, tailored to individuals with sensory disabilities or respiratory exacerbation conditions, was proposed. This technique would enable fire departments to anticipate and prevent wildfires before they strike and provide early warnings for at-risk individuals for better preparation, thereby saving lives and reducing economic damages.


AI system identifies buildings damaged by wildfire

#artificialintelligence

People around the globe have suffered the nerve-wracking anxiety of waiting weeks or months to find out if their homes have been damaged by wildfires that scorch with increased intensity. Now, once the smoke has cleared for aerial photography, researchers have found a way to identify building damage within minutes. Through a system they call DamageMap, a team at Stanford University and the California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly) has brought an artificial intelligence approach to building assessment: Instead of comparing before-and-after photos, they've trained a program using machine learning to rely solely on post-fire images. The findings appear in the International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. "We wanted to automate the process and make it much faster for first responders or even for citizens that might want to know what happened to their house after a wildfire," said lead study author Marios Galanis, a graduate student in the Civil and Environmental Engineering Department at Stanford's School of Engineering.


Google considered using drones for firefighting

#artificialintelligence

An illustration of a drone that sprays crops, the kind of gadget that Google saw as potentially useful for fighting fires. Google asked the US Federal Aviation Administration for permission to test a drone for monitoring and fighting fires. However, its drone plans, which were published Thursday in the federal register, have since been extinguished. The request came from Alphabet's Google Research Climate and Energy Group -- not the company's Wing subsidiary, whose drone delivery service was certified by the FAA in 2019. Wing drones are being used to deliver food and medicine during the coronavirus pandemic.


California Utilities Hope Drones, AI Will Lower Risk of Future Wildfires

WSJ.com: WSJD - Technology

Lightning was a factor in many of these fires. But past blazes, including the 2018 Camp Fire that destroyed the town of Paradise, Calif., were started by faulty transmission equipment. In that case, a worn piece of metal that holds power lines, known as a C-hook, broke and dropped a high-voltage electric line that ignited that fire. The Morning Download delivers daily insights and news on business technology from the CIO Journal team. In June, PG&E Corp., parent company of Pacific Gas and Electric Co., pleaded guilty to 84 counts of involuntary manslaughter for its role in sparking that fire.


AI Startup Aims to Extinguish Wildfires

#artificialintelligence

Based on the last two wildfire seasons, including 2018 when an entire California town was destroyed, utilities blamed for recent wildfires need all the help they can get maintaining aging grids. AI technologies may provide new monitoring tools. Paradise, Calif., population of about 27,000, was destroyed by the Camp Fire. The 2018 inferno claimed at least 84 victims. In June, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) was ordered to pay a $3.5 million fine for causing the Camp Fire.


Simulation Pipeline for Traffic Evacuation in Urban Areas and Emergency Traffic Management Policy Improvements

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Traffic evacuation plays a critical role in saving lives in devastating disasters such as hurricanes, wildfires, floods, earthquakes, etc. An ability to evaluate evacuation plans in advance for these rare events, including identifying traffic flow bottlenecks, improving traffic management policies, and understanding the robustness of the traffic management policy are critical for emergency management. Given the rareness of such events and the corresponding lack of real data, traffic simulation provides a flexible and versatile approach for such scenarios, and furthermore allows dynamic interaction with the simulated evacuation. In this paper, we build a traffic simulation pipeline to explore the above problems, covering many aspects of evacuation, including map creation, demand generation, vehicle behavior, bottleneck identification, traffic management policy improvement, and results analysis. We apply the pipeline to two case studies in California. The first is Paradise, which was destroyed by a large wildfire in 2018 and experienced catastrophic traffic jams during the evacuation. The second is Mill Valley, which has high risk of wildfire and potential traffic issues since the city is situated in a narrow valley.