Stochastic processes that involve the creation of objects and relations over time are widespread, but relatively poorly studied. For example, accurate fault diagnosis in factory assembly processes requires inferring the probabilities of erroneous assembly operations, but doing this efficiently and accurately is difficult. Modeled as dynamic Bayesian networks, these processes have discrete variables with very large domains and extremely high dimensionality. In this paper, we introduce relational dynamic Bayesian networks (RDBNs), which are an extension of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) to first-order logic. RDBNs are a generalization of dynamic probabilistic relational models (DPRMs), which we had proposed in our previous work to model dynamic uncertain domains. We first extend the Rao-Blackwellised particle filtering described in our earlier work to RDBNs. Next, we lift the assumptions associated with Rao-Blackwellization in RDBNs and propose two new forms of particle filtering. The first one uses abstraction hierarchies over the predicates to smooth the particle filters estimates. The second employs kernel density estimation with a kernel function specifically designed for relational domains. Experiments show these two methods greatly outperform standard particle filtering on the task of assembly plan execution monitoring.

Most planning formalisms allow instances with shortest plans of exponential length. While such instances are problematic, they are usually unavoidable and can occur in practice. There are several known cases of restricted planning problems where plans can be exponential but always have a compact (ie. polynomial) representation, often using recursive macros. Such compact representations are important since exponential plans are difficult both to use and to understand. We show that these results do not extend to the general case, by proving a number of bounds for compact representations of plans under various criteria, like efficient sequential or random access of actions. Further, we show that it is unlikely to get around this by reformulating planning into some other problem. The results are discussed in the context of abstraction, macros and plan explanation.

The Fifth International Symposium on Abstraction, Reformulation, and Approximation (SARA-2002) was held from 2 to 4 August 2002 in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada. This interdisciplinary conference brought together researchers from around the world to present recent progress on, and exchange ideas about, how abstraction, reformulation, and approximation techniques can be used in areas such as automatic programming, constraint satisfaction, design, diagnosis, machine learning, search, planning, reasoning, game playing, scheduling, and theorem proving.

(IKS 2002).