We run an independent comparison of all hyperparameter optimization (hyperopt) engines available in the Ray Tune library. We introduce two ways to normalize and aggregate statistics across data sets and models, one rank-based, and another one sandwiching the score between the random search score and the full grid search score. This affords us i) to rank the hyperopt engines, ii) to make generalized and statistically significant statements on how much they improve over random search, and iii) to make recommendations on which engine should be used to hyperopt a given learning algorithm. We find that most engines beat random search, but that only three of them (HEBO, AX, and BlendSearch) clearly stand out. We also found that some engines seem to specialize in hyperopting certain learning algorithms, which makes it tricky to use hyperopt in comparison studies, since the choice of the hyperopt technique may favor some of the models in the comparison.

Unconditional scene inference and generation are challenging to learn jointly with a single compositional model. Despite encouraging progress on models that extract object-centric representations (''slots'') from images, unconditional generation of scenes from slots has received less attention. This is primarily because learning the multi-object relations necessary to imagine coherent scenes is difficult. We hypothesize that most existing slot-based models have a limited ability to learn object correlations. We propose two improvements that strengthen object correlation learning. The first is to condition the slots on a global, scene-level variable that captures higher-order correlations between slots. Second, we address the fundamental lack of a canonical order for objects in images by proposing to learn a consistent order to use for the autoregressive generation of scene objects. Specifically, we train an autoregressive slot prior to sequentially generate scene objects following a learned order. Ordered slot inference entails first estimating a randomly ordered set of slots using existing approaches for extracting slots from images, then aligning those slots to ordered slots generated autoregressively with the slot prior. Our experiments across three multi-object environments demonstrate clear gains in unconditional scene generation quality. Detailed ablation studies are also provided that validate the two proposed improvements.

We build on a recently proposed method for stepwise explaining the solutions to Constraint Satisfaction Problems (CSPs) in a human understandable way. An explanation here is a sequence of simple inference steps where simplicity is quantified by a cost function. Explanation generation algorithms rely on extracting Minimal Unsatisfiable Subsets (MUSs) of a derived unsatisfiable formula, exploiting a one-to-one correspondence between so-called non-redundant explanations and MUSs. However, MUS extraction algorithms do not guarantee subset minimality or optimality with respect to a given cost function. Therefore, we build on these formal foundations and address the main points of improvement, namely how to generate explanations efficiently that are provably optimal (with respect to the given cost metric). To this end, we developed (1) a hitting set-based algorithm for finding the optimal constrained unsatisfiable subsets; (2) a method for reusing relevant information across multiple algorithm calls; and (3) methods for exploiting domain-specific information to speed up the generation of explanation sequences. We have experimentally validated our algorithms on a large number of CSP problems. We found that our algorithms outperform the MUS approach in terms of explanation quality and computational time (on average up to 56 % faster than a standard MUS approach).

Effectively modeling phenomena present in highly nonlinear dynamical systems whilst also accurately quantifying uncertainty is a challenging task, which often requires problem-specific techniques. We outline the deep latent force model (DLFM), a domain-agnostic approach to tackling this problem, which consists of a deep Gaussian process architecture where the kernel at each layer is derived from an ordinary differential equation using the framework of process convolutions. Two distinct formulations of the DLFM are presented which utilise weight-space and variational inducing points-based Gaussian process approximations, both of which are amenable to doubly stochastic variational inference. We provide evidence that our model is capable of capturing highly nonlinear behaviour in real-world multivariate time series data. In addition, we find that our approach achieves comparable performance to a number of other probabilistic models on benchmark regression tasks. We also empirically assess the negative impact of the inducing points framework on the extrapolation capabilities of LFM-based models.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) aims to improve model generalizability when test data diverges from training distribution, offering the distinct advantage of not requiring access to training data and processes, especially valuable in the context of large pre-trained models. However, current TTA methods fail to address the fundamental issue: covariate shift, i.e., the decreased generalizability can be attributed to the model's reliance on the marginal distribution of the training data, which may impair model calibration and introduce confirmation bias. To address this, we propose a novel energy-based perspective, enhancing the model's perception of target data distributions without requiring access to training data or processes. Building on this perspective, we introduce $\textbf{T}$est-time $\textbf{E}$nergy $\textbf{A}$daptation ($\textbf{TEA}$), which transforms the trained classifier into an energy-based model and aligns the model's distribution with the test data's, enhancing its ability to perceive test distributions and thus improving overall generalizability. Extensive experiments across multiple tasks, benchmarks and architectures demonstrate TEA's superior generalization performance against state-of-the-art methods. Further in-depth analyses reveal that TEA can equip the model with a comprehensive perception of test distribution, ultimately paving the way toward improved generalization and calibration.

Language is essentially a complex, intricate system of human expressions governed by grammatical rules. It poses a significant challenge to develop capable AI algorithms for comprehending and grasping a language. As a major approach, language modeling has been widely studied for language understanding and generation in the past two decades, evolving from statistical language models to neural language models. Recently, pre-trained language models (PLMs) have been proposed by pre-training Transformer models over large-scale corpora, showing strong capabilities in solving various NLP tasks. Since researchers have found that model scaling can lead to performance improvement, they further study the scaling effect by increasing the model size to an even larger size. Interestingly, when the parameter scale exceeds a certain level, these enlarged language models not only achieve a significant performance improvement but also show some special abilities that are not present in small-scale language models. To discriminate the difference in parameter scale, the research community has coined the term large language models (LLM) for the PLMs of significant size. Recently, the research on LLMs has been largely advanced by both academia and industry, and a remarkable progress is the launch of ChatGPT, which has attracted widespread attention from society. The technical evolution of LLMs has been making an important impact on the entire AI community, which would revolutionize the way how we develop and use AI algorithms. In this survey, we review the recent advances of LLMs by introducing the background, key findings, and mainstream techniques. In particular, we focus on four major aspects of LLMs, namely pre-training, adaptation tuning, utilization, and capacity evaluation. Besides, we also summarize the available resources for developing LLMs and discuss the remaining issues for future directions.

Multimodal Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) have been the subject of intense research in the past years as they can integrate multiple modalities into a joint representation and can thus serve as a promising tool for both data classification and generation. Several approaches toward multimodal VAE learning have been proposed so far, their comparison and evaluation have however been rather inconsistent. One reason is that the models differ at the implementation level, another problem is that the datasets commonly used in these cases were not initially designed to evaluate multimodal generative models. This paper addresses both mentioned issues. First, we propose a toolkit for systematic multimodal VAE training and comparison. The toolkit currently comprises 4 existing multimodal VAEs and 6 commonly used benchmark datasets along with instructions on how to easily add a new model or a dataset. Second, we present a disentangled bimodal dataset designed to comprehensively evaluate the joint generation and cross-generation capabilities across multiple difficulty levels. We demonstrate the utility of our dataset by comparing the implemented state-of-the-art models.

Abstract: Trading on electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. We present a probabilistic forecasting approach for day-ahead electricity prices using the fully data-driven deep generative model called normalizing flows. Our modeling approach generates full-day scenarios of day-ahead electricity prices based on conditional features such as residual load forecasts. Furthermore, we propose extended feature sets of prior realizations and a periodic retraining scheme that allows the normalizing flow to adapt to the changing conditions of modern electricity markets. In particular, we investigate the impact of the energy crisis ensuing from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Our results highlight that the normalizing flow generates high-quality scenarios that reproduce the true price distribution and yield highly accurate forecasts. Additionally, our analysis highlights how our improvements towards adaptations in changing regimes allow the normalizing flow to adapt to changing market conditions and enables continued sampling of high-quality day-ahead price scenarios.

A networked time series (NETS) is a family of time series on a given graph, one for each node. It has a wide range of applications from intelligent transportation, environment monitoring to smart grid management. An important task in such applications is to predict the future values of a NETS based on its historical values and the underlying graph. Most existing methods require complete data for training. However, in real-world scenarios, it is not uncommon to have missing data due to sensor malfunction, incomplete sensing coverage, etc. In this paper, we study the problem of NETS prediction with incomplete data. We propose NETS-ImpGAN, a novel deep learning framework that can be trained on incomplete data with missing values in both history and future. Furthermore, we propose Graph Temporal Attention Networks, which incorporate the attention mechanism to capture both inter-time series and temporal correlations. We conduct extensive experiments on four real-world datasets under different missing patterns and missing rates. The experimental results show that NETS-ImpGAN outperforms existing methods, reducing the MAE by up to 25%.

Typically, autonomous driving adopts a modular design, which divides the full stack into perception, prediction, planning and control parts. Though interpretable, such modular design tends to introduce a substantial amount of redundancy. Recently, multimodal large language models (MLLM) and diffusion techniques have demonstrated their superior performance on comprehension and generation ability. In this paper, we first introduce the concept of interleaved vision-action pair, which unifies the format of visual features and control signals. Based on the vision-action pairs, we construct a general world model based on MLLM and diffusion model for autonomous driving, termed ADriver-I. It takes the vision-action pairs as inputs and autoregressively predicts the control signal of the current frame. The generated control signals together with the historical vision-action pairs are further conditioned to predict the future frames. With the predicted next frame, ADriver-I performs further control signal prediction. Such a process can be repeated infinite times, ADriver-I achieves autonomous driving in the world created by itself. Extensive experiments are conducted on nuScenes and our large-scale private datasets. ADriver-I shows impressive performance compared to several constructed baselines. We hope our ADriver-I can provide some new insights for future autonomous driving and embodied intelligence.