We introduce a generalization of temporal-difference (TD) learning to networks of interrelated predictions. Rather than relating a single prediction to itself at a later time, as in conventional TD methods, a TD network relates each prediction in a set of predictions to other predictions in the set at a later time. TD networks can represent and apply TD learning to a much wider class of predictions than has previously been possible. Using a random-walk example, we show that these networks can be used to learn to predict by a fixed interval, which is not possible with conventional TD methods. Secondly, we show that if the interpredictive relationships are made conditional on action, then the usual learning-efficiency advantage of TD methods over Monte Carlo (supervised learning) methods becomes particularly pronounced.

We describe semi-Markov conditional random fields (semi-CRFs), a conditionally trained version of semi-Markov chains. Intuitively, a semi-CRF on an input sequence x outputs a "segmentation" of x, in which labels are assigned to segments (i.e., subsequences) of x rather than to individual elements x

We investigate an approach for simultaneously committing to multiple activities, each modeled as a temporally extended action in a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP). For each activity we define a set of admissible solutions consisting of the redundant set of optimal policies, and those policies that ascend the optimal statevalue function associated with them. A plan is then generated by merging them in such a way that the solutions to the subordinate activities are realized in the set of admissible solutions satisfying the superior activities. We present our theoretical results and empirically evaluate our approach in a simulated domain.

We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theoretically and by simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.

Learning in a multiagent system is a challenging problem due to two key factors. First, if other agents are simultaneously learning then the environment is no longer stationary, thus undermining convergence guarantees. Second, learning is often susceptible to deception, where the other agents may be able to exploit a learner's particular dynamics. In the worst case, this could result in poorer performance than if the agent was not learning at all. These challenges are identifiable in the two most common evaluation criteria for multiagent learning algorithms: convergence and regret.

Many sequential prediction tasks involve locating instances of patterns in sequences. Generative probabilistic language models, such as hidden Markov models (HMMs), have been successfully applied to many of these tasks. A limitation of these models however, is that they cannot naturally handle cases in which pattern instances overlap in arbitrary ways. We present an alternative approach, based on conditional Markov networks, that can naturally represent arbitrarily overlapping elements. We show how to efficiently train and perform inference with these models. Experimental results from a genomics domain show that our models are more accurate at locating instances of overlapping patterns than are baseline models based on HMMs.

We introduce a generalization of temporal-difference (TD) learning to networks of interrelated predictions. Rather than relating a single prediction to itself at a later time, as in conventional TD methods, a TD network relates each prediction in a set of predictions to other predictions in the set at a later time. TD networks can represent and apply TD learning to a much wider class of predictions than has previously been possible. Using a random-walk example, we show that these networks can be used to learn to predict by a fixed interval, which is not possible with conventional TD methods. Secondly, we show that if the interpredictive relationships are made conditional on action, then the usual learning-efficiency advantage of TD methods over Monte Carlo (supervised learning) methods becomes particularly pronounced.

We describe semi-Markov conditional random fields (semi-CRFs), a conditionally trained version of semi-Markov chains. Intuitively, a semi-CRF on an input sequence x outputs a "segmentation" of x, in which labels are assigned to segments (i.e., subsequences) of x rather than to individual elements x

We investigate an approach for simultaneously committing to multiple activities, each modeled as a temporally extended action in a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP). For each activity we define a set of admissible solutions consisting of the redundant set of optimal policies, and those policies that ascend the optimal statevalue function associated with them. A plan is then generated by merging them in such a way that the solutions to the subordinate activities are realized in the set of admissible solutions satisfying the superior activities. We present our theoretical results and empirically evaluate our approach in a simulated domain.

We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theoretically and by simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.