This paper presents an agent based framework for modeling of the formation and dynamics of pirate networks. The framework consists of (1) development of network formation mechanism and (2) formulation of pirate attack dynamics. Accordingly, the paper attempts to define the characteristics of Pirate Networks and to formulate the rules that govern the operation and evolution of Pirate Networks. We discuss the clan based social system that facilitate pirate formation as well as the pirate network inter-action with the hosting clan system. Using published material, empirical data and surveys the paper attempts to establish credible formation mechanism and operational characterization of pirate attacks. The proposed framework accounts for clan dynamics and the interplay of social, ecological and physical spaces. Finally we conclude with a discussion on exploratory modeling for the refinement of the proposed framework and for empirically grounding proposed simulations.

Inferring causal relations by analyzing statistical dependences among observed random variables is a challenging task if no controlled randomized experiments are available. Socalled constraint-based approaches to causal discovery (Pearl, 2000; Spirtes et al., 1993) select among all directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) those that satisfy the Markov condition and the faithfulness assumption, i.e., those for which the observed independences are imposed by the structure rather than being a result of specific choices of parameters of the Bayesian network. These approaches are unable to distinguish among causal DAGs that impose the same independences. In particular, it is impossible to distinguish between X Y and Y X. More recently, several methods have been suggested that use not only conditional independences, but also more sophisticated properties of the joint distribution. For simplicity, we explain the ideas for the two variable setting since this case is particularly challenging. Kano & Shimizu (2003) use models Y f(X) N (1) where f is a linear function and N is additive noise that is independent of the hypothetical cause X. This is an example for an additive noise model from X to Y. Apart from trivial

Numerous logic frameworks have been proposed for modeling uncertainty and reasoning with such data. While different in syntax, the approaches of these frameworks have been classified into "annotation based" (AB) and "implication based" (IB). In this paper, we present a unified framework which allows evaluating programs in either approach. It extends existing query processing techniques to handle certainty constraints and uses heuristics to further improve the performance. Our experiments indicate that the proposed techniques yield useful tools for uncertainty reasoning.

In this paper, we propose to use recurrent reinforcement learning to directly optimize such trading system performance functions, and we compare two different reinforcement learning methods. The first, Recurrent Reinforcement Learning, uses immediate rewards to train the trading systems, while the second (Q-Learning (Watkins 1989)) approximates discounted future rewards. These methodologies can be applied to optimizing systems designed to trade a single security or to trade portfolios . In addition, we propose a novel value function for risk-adjusted return that enables learning to be done online: the differential Sharpe ratio. Trading system profits depend upon sequences of interdependent decisions, and are thus path-dependent. Optimal trading decisions when the effects of transactions costs, market impact and taxes are included require knowledge of the current system state. In Moody, Wu, Liao & Saffell (1998), we demonstrate that reinforcement learning provides a more elegant and effective means for training trading systems when transaction costs are included, than do more standard supervised approaches.

In this paper, we propose to use recurrent reinforcement learning to directly optimize such trading system performance functions, and we compare two different reinforcement learning methods. The first, Recurrent Reinforcement Learning, uses immediate rewards to train the trading systems, while the second (Q-Learning (Watkins 1989)) approximates discounted future rewards. These methodologies can be applied to optimizing systems designed to trade a single security or to trade portfolios . In addition, we propose a novel value function for risk-adjusted return that enables learning to be done online: the differential Sharpe ratio. Trading system profits depend upon sequences of interdependent decisions, and are thus path-dependent. Optimal trading decisions when the effects of transactions costs, market impact and taxes are included require knowledge of the current system state. In Moody, Wu, Liao & Saffell (1998), we demonstrate that reinforcement learning provides a more elegant and effective means for training trading systems when transaction costs are included, than do more standard supervised approaches.

This article analyzes an attempt to use computing technology, including AI, to improve the combat readiness of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier. The method of introducing new technology, as well as the reaction of the organization to the use of the technology, is examined to discern the reasons for the rejection by the carrier's personnel of a technically sophisticated attempt to increase mission capability. This effort to make advanced computing technology, such as expert systems, an integral part of the organizational environment and, thereby, to significantly alter traditional decision-making methods failed for two reasons: (1) the innovation of having users, as opposed to the navy research and development bureaucracy, perform the development function was in conflict with navy operational requirements and routines and (2) the technology itself was either inappropriate or perceived by operational experts to be inappropriate for the tasks of the organization. Finally, this article suggests those obstacles that must be overcome to successfully introduce state-of-the-art computing technology into any organization.

Our own early attempts (as devoted users of LISP) to use PROLOG convinced us that it would be worth the effort to create within LISP a faithful implementation of Kowalski's logic programming idea. We felt it would be very convenient to be able to set up a knowledge base of assertions inside a LISP workspace, and to compute the answers to queries simply by executing appropriate function calls.In Hayes, J. E., Michie, D., and Pao, Y.-H. (Eds.), Machine Intelligence 10. Ellis Horwood.