Computing expected predictions has many interesting applications in areas such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing expectations of a discriminative model with respect to a probability distribution defined by an arbitrary generative model has been proven to be hard in general. In fact, the task is intractable even for simple models such as logistic regression and a naive Bayes distribution. In this paper, we identify a pair of generative and discriminative models that enables tractable computation of expectations of the latter with respect to the former, as well as moments of any order, in case of regression. Specifically, we consider expressive probabilistic circuits with certain structural constraints that support tractable probabilistic inference. Moreover, we exploit the tractable computation of high-order moments to derive an algorithm to approximate the expectations, for classification scenarios in which exact computations are intractable. We evaluate the effectiveness of our exact and approximate algorithms in handling missing data during prediction time where they prove to be competitive to standard imputation techniques on a variety of datasets. Finally, we illustrate how expected prediction framework can be used to reason about the behaviour of discriminative models.

A trio of researchers from Chonnam National University, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences has found that a deep learning convolutional neural network was able to accurately predict El Niño events up to 18 months in advance. In their paper published in the journal Nature, Yoo-Geun Ham, Jeong-Hwan Kim and Jing-Jia Luo, describe their deep learning application, how it was trained and how well it worked in predicting El Niño events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation events are periods during which water warms above normal temperatures in tropical parts of the Pacific. When that warm water moves east, it leads to more rainfall and other weather events, such as hurricanes, in the Americas, and less rain in Australia and Indonesia. Current models can accurately predict such events using data from water temperature gauges spread across the globe up to a year in advance.

Speaking at his mid-term semiconductor industry forecast seminar in London this week, Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of industry analyst Future Horizons, assured attendees that industry fundamentals were sound, and after a fall of around 15% in 2019, the industry will rebound with around 4% revenue growth to $414 billion in 2020. He said, "The fundamentals are sound. In terms of IC unit growth, fab capacity and average selling price, they are all in in good shape. It's the timing of the upswing in the economy that puts it into doubt." He added, "Rebound is a certainty, but its timing is not."

The dreaded El Niño strikes the globe every 2 to 7 years. As warm waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean shift eastward and trade winds weaken, the weather pattern ripples through the atmosphere, causing drought in southern Africa, wildfires in South America, and flooding on North America's Pacific coast. Climate scientists have struggled to predict El Niño events more than 1 year in advance, but artificial intelligence (AI) can now extend forecasts to 18 months, according to a new study. The work could help people in threatened regions better prepare for droughts and floods, for example by choosing which crops to plant, says William Hsieh, a retired climate scientist in Victoria, Canada, who worked on early El Niño forecasts but who was not involved in the current study. Longer forecasts could have "large economic benefits," he says.

Artificial intelligence is learning how to predict El Niño climate cycles. The hope is that the technology could be used to improve climate predictions and give policy-makers more time to prepare. El Niño can cause severe weather and devastating damage. A phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, it occurs when water warms over the tropical Pacific Ocean, shifting east and increasing rainfall and cyclones over the Americas while pulling rain away from Indonesia and Australia. Strong El Niño events are associated with intense storms and flooding in some areas, and drought and fires in others.

RIYADH – Saudi Arabia alleged Wednesday an attack by drones and cruise missiles on the heart of the kingdom's oil industry was "unquestionably sponsored by Iran," naming but not directly accusing Tehran of launching the assault. Iran denies being involved in the attack claimed by Yemeni rebels, and has threatened the U.S. that it will retaliate "immediately" if Tehran is targeted in response. The news conference by Saudi military spokesman Col. Turki al-Malki comes after a summer of heightened tensions between Iran and the U.S. over President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrawing America from Tehran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers. The U.S. alleges Iran launched the attack, which Yemen's Houthi rebels earlier claimed as a response to the yearslong Saudi-led war there that's killed tens of thousands of people. Al-Malki made a point not to directly accuse Iran of firing the weapons or launching them from inside of Iranian territory.

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – The assault on the beating heart of Saudi Arabia's vast oil empire follows a new and dangerous pattern that's emerged across the Persian Gulf this summer of precise attacks that leave few obvious clues as to who launched them. Beginning in May with the still-unclaimed explosions that damaged oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, the region has seen its energy infrastructure repeatedly targeted. Those attacks culminated with Saturday's assault on the world's biggest oil processor in eastern Saudi Arabia, which halved the oil-rich kingdom's production and caused energy prices to spike. Some strikes have been claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have been battling a Saudi-led coalition in the Arab world's poorest country since 2015. Their rapidly increasing sophistication fuels suspicion among experts and analysts however that Iran may be orchestrating them -- or perhaps even carrying them out itself as the U.S. alleges in the case of Saturday's attack.

Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar faces condemnation over her'some people did something' comments; reaction from Fox News contributor Ari Fleischer, former White House contributor. Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn, blasted President Trump over his handling of Iran and suggested that his administration is to blame over the increased tensions between the two nations. Over the weekend, Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed they launched drone attacks on the world's largest oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia and a major oil field Saturday, sparking huge fires and halting about half of the supplies from the world's largest exporter of oil. The attacks marked the latest of many drone assaults on the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in recent weeks, but easily the most damaging. They raised concerns about the global oil supply and could further escalate tensions across the Persian Gulf amid a growing crisis between the U.S. and Iran over the troubled nuclear deal.

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES – A weekend drone attack on Saudi Arabia that cut into global energy supplies and halved the kingdom's oil production threatened Sunday to fuel a regional crisis, as Iran denied U.S. allegations it launched the assault and tensions remained high over Tehran's collapsing nuclear deal. Iran called the U.S. claims "maximum lies," while a commander in its paramilitary Revolutionary Guard reiterated its forces could strike U.S. military bases across the Mideast with their arsenal of ballistic missiles. A prominent U.S. senator suggested striking Iranian oil refineries in response to the assault, claimed by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels, on Saudi Arabia's largest oil processing facility. "Because of the tension and sensitive situation, our region is like a powder keg," warned Guard Brig. "When these contacts come too close, when forces come into contact with one another, it is possible a conflict happens because of a misunderstanding."

Drone attacks claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels struck two key oil installations inside Saudi Arabia on Saturday, damaging facilities that process the vast majority of the country's crude output and raising the risk of a disruption in world oil supplies. The attacks immediately escalated tensions in the Persian Gulf amid a standoff between the United States and Iran, even as key questions remained unanswered -- where the drones were launched from, and how the Houthis managed to hit facilities deep in Saudi territory, some 500 miles from Yemeni soil. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accused Iran of being behind what he called "an unprecedented attack on the world's energy supply" and asserted that there was "no evidence the attacks came from Yemen." He did not, however, specify an alternative launch site, and the Saudis themselves refrained from pointing the finger directly at Iran. President Trump condemned the attack in a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and offered support for "Saudi Arabia's self defense," the White House said in a statement, adding that the United States "remains committed to ensuring global oil markets are stable and well supplied."