Indian Ocean
Has the war on Gaza hurt Israel's economy?
Israel's war on Gaza, now well into its fourth month, has taken a toll on its own economy with many industries pausing business even as a few continue to get new investments. Since October, Israel's government has subsidised the salaries of reportedly 360,000 mobilised reservists deployed to Gaza – many of whom are high-tech industry workers in finance, artificial intelligence, pharmaceuticals and agriculture. In November, the Bank of Israel put the war's "gross effects" on Israel at 198 billion shekels ( 53bn) and pared back its estimates for economic growth to 2 percent per year for 2023 and 2024, down from 2.3 percent and 2.8 percent. In December, Israel's Finance Ministry said that the war will likely cost Israel approximately 13.8bn this year if its high-intensity phase concludes during the first quarter of 2024. In the midst of that, experts are watching to see how business is doing on the ground.
Biden administration warned Iran before ISIS attack Jan. 3, US official says
Sen. McConnell supports President Biden's authority for Iran airstrikes, urging stronger action against terrorist threats. President Biden's administration warned Iran of an impending terrorist attack prior to a blast that killed 94 people in early January, a U.S. official tells Fox News Digital. The bombing attack took place at a memorial ceremony for Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike on Jan. 3, 2020 under former President Trump's administration. The U.S. official did not detail Iran's response to the warning. "Prior to ISIS' terrorist attack on January 3, 2024, in Kerman, Iran, the U.S. Government provided Iran with a private warning that there was a terrorist threat within Iranian borders," the official told Fox. "The U.S. Government followed a longstanding'duty to warn' policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats. We provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks," the official added.
Space warfare: US, China, and Russia are gearing up for the next frontier of armed conflict
Arthel Neville welcomes former U.S. Defense Intelligence Officer Rebekah Koffler to discuss the massive global cyberattack that had impacted several federal agencies. The next big war may be fought in space. As the Pentagon is gearing up for a future celestial conflict, so are our chief adversaries, China and Russia. Here's why "Star Wars" is no longer merely a topic of science fiction. The best way to avoid space warfare is to be ready for it. On Dec. 28, Elon Musk's Space X launched into space the Pentagon's highly secretive X-37B Orbital Test Vehicle, an unmanned reusable robotic spacecraft operated by the Air Force, in collaboration with Space Force.
War Has Already Hurt the Economies of Israel's Nearest Neighbors
"No one wants to invest, but Egypt is too big to fail," Mr. Landis said, explaining that the United States and I.M.F. are unlikely to let the country default on its 165 billion of foreign loans given its strategic and political importance. The drop in shipping traffic crossing into the Red Sea from the Suez Canal is the latest blow. Between January and August, Egypt brought in an average of 862 million per month in revenue from the canal, which carries 11 percent of global maritime trade. James Swanston, an emerging-markets economist at Capital Economics, said that according to the head of the Suez Canal Authority, traffic is down 30 percent this month from December and revenues are 40 percent weaker compared to 2023 levels. "That's the biggest spillover effect," he said.
Zelenskyy makes urgent call for support at World Economic Forum at Davos
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy gives his outlook on the conflict and offers an update on his country's counter-offensive on'Special Report.' Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy huddled with corporate executives and world leaders in a frenzied first full day of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in the Swiss ski resort of Davos, where top officials from the United States, European Union, China, the Middle East and beyond spoke Tuesday about tackling conflict and embracing technology like artificial intelligence. Zelenskyy is endeavoring to keep his country's long and largely stalemated defense against Russia on the minds of political leaders, just as Israel's war with Hamas, which passed the 100-day mark this week, has siphoned off much of the world's attention and sparked concerns about a wider conflict in the Middle East. "It is important that you stand with us, I thank you for your support. It is very important to be here, to boost investment in Ukraine and support our economy," Zelenskyy said at an invitation-only "CEOs for Ukraine" session, according to his office.
US Navy announces first seizure of Iranian weapons bound for Yemen as two SEALs remain lost from mission
The U.S. Navy on Tuesday announced what's considered the first seizure of Iranian weapons bound for Yemen since Houthi rebels began their campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping in the Red Sea two months ago – yet the two Navy SEALs lost at sea during the mission carried out last week still remain missing amid search and rescue efforts. On Jan. 11, 2024, while conducting a flag verification, U.S. CENTCOM Navy forces "conducted a night-time seizure of a dhow conducting illegal transport of advanced lethal aid from Iran to resupply Houthi forces in Yemen as part of the Houthis' ongoing campaign of attacks against international merchant shipping," U.S. Central Command said in a statement Tuesday. "U.S. Navy SEALs operating from USS Lewis B Puller (ESB 3), supported by helicopters and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), executed a complex boarding of the dhow near the coast of Somalia in international waters of the Arabian Sea, seizing Iranian-made ballistic missile and cruise missiles components," the statement said. "Seized items include propulsion, guidance, and warheads for Houthi medium range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and anti-ship cruise missiles (ASCMs), as well as air defense associated components." On Jan. 10, 2024, a dhow was identified, and an assessment was made that the dhow was in the process of smuggling.
Three armed drones intercepted and shot down near US base in northern Iraq
Senior foreign affairs correspondent Greg Palkot provides details on the major strike on an Iraqi militia leader and the U.S.'s response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea Three armed drones were shot down in Iraq on Tuesday, near where U.S. and other international forces are stationed, officials said. Iraqi Kurdistan's counter-terrorism service said its forces intercepted and shot down the drones over Erbil airport in northern Iraq at around 5:05 a.m. It did not say if there were any casualties or damage to infrastructure. There was no immediate claim of responsibility. Similar previous attacks have been claimed by a group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.
PUPAE: Intuitive and Actionable Explanations for Time Series Anomalies
Der, Audrey, Yeh, Chin-Chia Michael, Zheng, Yan, Wang, Junpeng, Zhuang, Zhongfang, Wang, Liang, Zhang, Wei, Keogh, Eamonn J.
In recent years there has been significant progress in time series anomaly detection. However, after detecting an (perhaps tentative) anomaly, can we explain it? Such explanations would be useful to triage anomalies. For example, in an oil refinery, should we respond to an anomaly by dispatching a hydraulic engineer, or an intern to replace the battery on a sensor? There have been some parallel efforts to explain anomalies, however many proposed techniques produce explanations that are indirect, and often seem more complex than the anomaly they seek to explain. Our review of the literature/checklists/user-manuals used by frontline practitioners in various domains reveals an interesting near-universal commonality. Most practitioners discuss, explain and report anomalies in the following format: The anomaly would be like normal data A, if not for the corruption B. The reader will appreciate that is a type of counterfactual explanation. In this work we introduce a domain agnostic counterfactual explanation technique to produce explanations for time series anomalies. As we will show, our method can produce both visual and text-based explanations that are objectively correct, intuitive and in many circumstances, directly actionable.
Charting New Territories: Exploring the Geographic and Geospatial Capabilities of Multimodal LLMs
Roberts, Jonathan, Lüddecke, Timo, Sheikh, Rehan, Han, Kai, Albanie, Samuel
Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities across a broad range of tasks but their knowledge and abilities in the geographic and geospatial domains are yet to be explored, despite potential wide-ranging benefits to navigation, environmental research, urban development, and disaster response. We conduct a series of experiments exploring various vision capabilities of MLLMs within these domains, particularly focusing on the frontier model GPT-4V, and benchmark its performance against open-source counterparts. Our methodology involves challenging these models with a small-scale geographic benchmark consisting of a suite of visual tasks, testing their abilities across a spectrum of complexity. The analysis uncovers not only where such models excel, including instances where they outperform humans, but also where they falter, providing a balanced view of their capabilities in the geographic domain. To enable the comparison and evaluation of future models, our benchmark will be publicly released.
Truth Forest: Toward Multi-Scale Truthfulness in Large Language Models through Intervention without Tuning
Chen, Zhongzhi, Sun, Xingwu, Jiao, Xianfeng, Lian, Fengzong, Kang, Zhanhui, Wang, Di, Xu, Cheng-Zhong
Despite the great success of large language models (LLMs) in various tasks, they suffer from generating hallucinations. We introduce Truth Forest, a method that enhances truthfulness in LLMs by uncovering hidden truth representations using multi-dimensional orthogonal probes. Specifically, it creates multiple orthogonal bases for modeling truth by incorporating orthogonal constraints into the probes. Moreover, we introduce Random Peek, a systematic technique considering an extended range of positions within the sequence, reducing the gap between discerning and generating truth features in LLMs. By employing this approach, we improved the truthfulness of Llama-2-7B from 40.8\% to 74.5\% on TruthfulQA. Likewise, significant improvements are observed in fine-tuned models. We conducted a thorough analysis of truth features using probes. Our visualization results show that orthogonal probes capture complementary truth-related features, forming well-defined clusters that reveal the inherent structure of the dataset.