In the early morning hours of May 15, the cargo vessel Borkum stopped off the Spanish coast, lingering in the waters a short distance from Cartagena. At the port, protesters waved Palestinian flags and called on authorities to inspect the ship based on suspicions that it carried weapons bound for Israel. Leftist members of the European Parliament sent a letter to Spanish President Pedro Sánchez requesting that the ship be prevented from docking. "Allowing a ship loaded with weapons destined for Israel is to allow the transit of arms to a country currently under investigation for genocide against the Palestinian people," the group of nine MEPs warned. Before the Spanish government could take a stand, the Borkum cancelled its planned stopover and continued to the Slovenian port of Koper.

Yemen's Houthis have claimed carrying out a joint military operation with an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia, known as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, to target four vessels in Israel's Haifa port. Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said in a televised statement on Sunday that the group fired drones at two cement tankers and two cargo ships at the port a day prior over noncompliance with a ban on entering "ports of occupied Palestine". Saree added that the group had also targeted a Shorthorn Express ship in the Mediterranean Sea using drones, and both operations "successfully achieved their goals". Israel's Channel 12 reported an explosion occurred in Haifa at dawn after an air defence missile was launched towards the sea without activating the sirens. Israel's military did not comment on the Houthi claim, but stated in a post on X that it had shot down a drone approaching the country overnight from the east.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in zero-shot learning applications, generating responses to queries using only pre-training information without the need for additional fine-tuning. This represents a significant departure from traditional machine learning approaches. Previous research has indicated that LLMs may exhibit serial position effects, such as primacy and recency biases, which are well-documented cognitive biases in human psychology. Our extensive testing across various tasks and models confirms the widespread occurrence of these effects, although their intensity varies. We also discovered that while carefully designed prompts can somewhat mitigate these biases, their effectiveness is inconsistent. These findings underscore the significance of serial position effects during the inference process, particularly in scenarios where there are no ground truth labels, highlighting the need for greater focus on addressing these effects in LLM applications.

The development of robust AI models relies heavily on the quality and variety of training data available. In fields where data scarcity is prevalent, synthetic data generation offers a vital solution. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to creating synthetic datasets, grounded in real-world diversity and enriched through strategic diversification. We synthesize data using a comprehensive collection of news articles spanning 12 languages and originating from 125 countries, to ensure a breadth of linguistic and cultural representations. Through enforced topic diversification, translation, and summarization, the resulting dataset accurately mirrors real-world complexities and addresses the issue of underrepresentation in traditional datasets. This methodology, applied initially to Named Entity Recognition (NER), serves as a model for numerous AI disciplines where data diversification is critical for generalizability. Preliminary results demonstrate substantial improvements in performance on traditional NER benchmarks, by up to 7.3%, highlighting the effectiveness of our synthetic data in mimicking the rich, varied nuances of global data sources. This paper outlines the strategies employed for synthesizing diverse datasets and provides such a curated dataset for NER.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human-crowd forecasting-tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of 12 LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to those of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our preregistered main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark, and is not statistically different from the human crowd. We also observe a set of human-like biases in machine responses, such as an acquiescence effect and a tendency to favour round numbers. In Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%, though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of the human crowd: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation.

As world knowledge evolves and new task paradigms emerge, Continual Learning (CL) is crucial for keeping Large Language Models (LLMs) up-to-date and addressing their shortcomings. In practical applications, LLMs often require both continual instruction tuning (CIT) and continual pre-training (CPT) to adapt to new task paradigms and acquire necessary knowledge for task-solving. However, it remains challenging to collect CPT data that addresses the knowledge deficiencies in models while maintaining adequate volume, and improving the efficiency of utilizing this data also presents significant difficulties. Inspired by the 'summarizing mistakes' learning skill, we propose the Continue Evolving from Mistakes (CEM) method, aiming to provide a data-efficient approach for collecting CPT data and continually improving LLMs' performance through iterative evaluation and supplementation with mistake-relevant knowledge. To efficiently utilize these CPT data and mitigate forgetting, we design a novel CL training set construction paradigm that integrates parallel CIT and CPT data. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the CEM method, achieving up to a 17% improvement in accuracy in the best case. Furthermore, additional experiments confirm the potential of combining CEM with catastrophic forgetting mitigation methods, enabling iterative and continual model evolution.

Real-time detection and prediction of extreme weather protect human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods rely on numerical threshold setting and manual interpretation of weather heatmaps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can be slow and error-prone. Our research redefines Extreme Weather Events Detection (EWED) by framing it as a Visual Question Answering (VQA) problem, thereby introducing a more precise and automated solution. Leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLM) to simultaneously process visual and textual data, we offer an effective aid to enhance the analysis process of weather heatmaps. Our initial assessment of general-purpose VLMs (e.g., GPT-4-Vision) on EWED revealed poor performance, characterized by low accuracy and frequent hallucinations due to inadequate color differentiation and insufficient meteorological knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce ClimateIQA, the first meteorological VQA dataset, which includes 8,760 wind gust heatmaps and 254,040 question-answer pairs covering four question types, both generated from the latest climate reanalysis data. We also propose Sparse Position and Outline Tracking (SPOT), an innovative technique that leverages OpenCV and K-Means clustering to capture and depict color contours in heatmaps, providing ClimateIQA with more accurate color spatial location information. Finally, we present Climate-Zoo, the first meteorological VLM collection, which adapts VLMs to meteorological applications using the ClimateIQA dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that models from Climate-Zoo substantially outperform state-of-the-art general VLMs, achieving an accuracy increase from 0% to over 90% in EWED verification. The datasets and models in this study are publicly available for future climate science research: https://github.com/AlexJJJChen/Climate-Zoo.

The under-representation of cloud formation is a long-standing bias associated with climate simulations. Parameterisation schemes are required to capture cloud processes within current climate models but have known biases. We overcome these biases by embedding a Multi-Output Gaussian Process (MOGP) trained on high resolution Unified Model simulations to represent the variability of temperature and specific humidity within a climate model. A trained MOGP model is coupled in-situ with a simplified Atmospheric General Circulation Model named SPEEDY. The temperature and specific humidity profiles of SPEEDY are perturbed at fixed intervals according to the variability predicted from the MOGP. Ten-year predictions are generated for both control and ML-hybrid models. The hybrid model reduces the global precipitation bias by 18\% and over the tropics by 22\%. To further understand the drivers of these improvements, physical quantities of interest are explored, such as the distribution of lifted index values and the alteration of the Hadley cell. The control and hybrid set-ups are also run in a plus 4K sea-surface temperature experiment to explore the effects of the approach on patterns relating to cloud cover and precipitation in a warmed climate setting.

Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects of the ocean on the atmosphere and coupled interactions in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present the Ocean-linked-atmosphere (Ola) model, a high-resolution (0.25{\deg}) Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning (AI/ML) coupled earth-system model which separately models the ocean and atmosphere dynamics using an autoregressive Spherical Fourier Neural Operator architecture, with a view towards enabling fast, accurate, large ensemble forecasts on the seasonal timescale. We find that Ola exhibits learned characteristics of ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamics including tropical oceanic waves with appropriate phase speeds, and an internally generated El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having realistic amplitude, geographic structure, and vertical structure within the ocean mixed layer. We present initial evidence of skill in forecasting the ENSO which compares favorably to the SPEAR model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Self-supervised speech models (S3Ms) have become an effective backbone for speech applications. Various analyses suggest that S3Ms encode linguistic properties. In this work, we seek a more fine-grained analysis of the word-level linguistic properties encoded in S3Ms. Specifically, we curate a novel dataset of near homophone (phonetically similar) and synonym (semantically similar) word pairs and measure the similarities between S3M word representation pairs. Our study reveals that S3M representations consistently and significantly exhibit more phonetic than semantic similarity. Further, we question whether widely used intent classification datasets such as Fluent Speech Commands and Snips Smartlights are adequate for measuring semantic abilities. Our simple baseline, using only the word identity, surpasses S3M-based models. This corroborates our findings and suggests that high scores on these datasets do not necessarily guarantee the presence of semantic content.