This essay examines how Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems are becoming more integral to international affairs by affecting how global governors exert power and pursue digital sovereignty. We first introduce a taxonomy of multifaceted AI payoffs for governments and corporations related to instrumental, structural, and discursive power in the domains of violence, markets, and rights. We next leverage different institutional and practice perspectives on sovereignty to assess how digital sovereignty is variously implicated in AI-empowered global governance. States both seek sovereign control over AI infrastructures in the institutional approach, while establishing sovereign competence through AI infrastructures in the practice approach. Overall, we present the digital sovereignty stakes of AI as related to entanglements of public and private power. Rather than foreseeing technology companies as replacing states, we argue that AI systems will embed in global governance to create dueling dynamics of public/private cooperation and contestation. We conclude with sketching future directions for IR research on AI and global governance.

Attacking fairness is crucial because compromised models can introduce biased outcomes, undermining trust and amplifying inequalities in sensitive applications like hiring, healthcare, and law enforcement. This highlights the urgent need to understand how fairness mechanisms can be exploited and to develop defenses that ensure both fairness and robustness. We introduce BadFair, a novel backdoored fairness attack methodology. BadFair stealthily crafts a model that operates with accuracy and fairness under regular conditions but, when activated by certain triggers, discriminates and produces incorrect results for specific groups. This type of attack is particularly stealthy and dangerous, as it circumvents existing fairness detection methods, maintaining an appearance of fairness in normal use. Our findings reveal that BadFair achieves a more than 85% attack success rate in attacks aimed at target groups on average while only incurring a minimal accuracy loss. Moreover, it consistently exhibits a significant discrimination score, distinguishing between pre-defined target and non-target attacked groups across various datasets and models.

Precipitation from tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause disasters such as flooding, mudslides, and landslides. Predicting such precipitation in advance is crucial, giving people time to prepare and defend against these precipitation-induced disasters. Developing deep learning (DL) rainfall prediction methods offers a new way to predict potential disasters. However, one problem is that most existing methods suffer from cumulative errors and lack physical consistency. Second, these methods overlook the importance of meteorological factors in TC rainfall and their integration with the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Therefore, we propose Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Diffusion (TCP-Diffusion), a multi-modal model for global tropical cyclone precipitation forecasting. It forecasts TC rainfall around the TC center for the next 12 hours at 3 hourly resolution based on past rainfall observations and multi-modal environmental variables. Adjacent residual prediction (ARP) changes the training target from the absolute rainfall value to the rainfall trend and gives our model the ability of rainfall change awareness, reducing cumulative errors and ensuring physical consistency. Considering the influence of TC-related meteorological factors and the useful information from NWP model forecasts, we propose a multi-model framework with specialized encoders to extract richer information from environmental variables and results provided by NWP models. The results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other DL methods and the NWP method from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

SpaceX has launched its fifth Starship test flight from Texas and returned the rocket's towering first-stage booster back to land for the first time, achieving a novel recovery method involving large metal arms. The rocket's Super Heavy first-stage booster lifted off at 7:25 am (12:25 GMT) on Sunday from SpaceX's launch facilities in Boca Chica, Texas, sending the second-stage Starship rocket on a path in space bound for the Indian Ocean west of Australia, where it will attempt atmospheric reentry followed by a water landing. The Super Heavy booster, after separating from the Starship booster some 74km (46 miles) in altitude, returned to the same area from which it was launched to make its landing attempt, aided by two robotic arms attached to the launch tower. "The tower has caught the rocket!!" SpaceX founder Elon Musk posted on X. Towering almost 121 metres (400 feet), the empty Starship arched over the Gulf of Mexico like the four Starships before it that ended up being destroyed, either soon after liftoff or while ditching into the sea. The last one in June was the most successful yet, completing its flight without exploding.

Complex systems can undergo critical transitions, where slowly changing environmental conditions trigger a sudden shift to a new, potentially catastrophic state. Early warning signals for these events are crucial for decision-making in fields such as ecology, biology and climate science. Generic early warning signals motivated by dynamical systems theory have had mixed success on real noisy data. More recent studies found that deep learning classifiers trained on synthetic data could improve performance. However, neither of these methods take advantage of historical, system-specific data. Here, we introduce an approach that trains machine learning classifiers directly on surrogate data of past transitions, namely surrogate data-based machine learning (SDML). The approach provides early warning signals in empirical and experimental data from geology, climatology, sociology, and cardiology with higher sensitivity and specificity than two widely used generic early warning signals -- variance and lag-1 autocorrelation. Since the approach is trained directly on surrogates of historical data, it is not bound by the restricting assumption of a local bifurcation like previous methods. This system-specific approach can contribute to improved early warning signals to help humans better prepare for or avoid undesirable critical transitions.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) empowers large language models (LLMs) to utilize external knowledge sources. The increasing capacity of LLMs to process longer input sequences opens up avenues for providing more retrieved information, to potentially enhance the quality of generated outputs. It is plausible to assume that a larger retrieval set would contain more relevant information (higher recall), that might result in improved performance. However, our empirical findings demonstrate that for many long-context LLMs, the quality of generated output initially improves first, but then subsequently declines as the number of retrieved passages increases. This paper investigates this phenomenon, identifying the detrimental impact of retrieved "hard negatives" as a key contributor. To mitigate this and enhance the robustness of long-context LLM-based RAG, we propose both training-free and training-based approaches. We first showcase the effectiveness of retrieval reordering as a simple yet powerful training-free optimization. Furthermore, we explore training-based methods, specifically RAG-specific implicit LLM fine-tuning and RAG-oriented fine-tuning with intermediate reasoning, demonstrating their capacity for substantial performance gains. Finally, we conduct a systematic analysis of design choices for these training-based methods, including data distribution, retriever selection, and training context length.

This paper investigates the limitations of transformers for entity-tracking tasks in large language models. We identify a theoretical constraint, showing that transformers require at least $\log_2 (n+1)$ layers to handle entity tracking with $n$ state changes. To address this issue, we propose an efficient and frugal enhancement to the standard attention mechanism, enabling it to manage long-term dependencies more efficiently. By considering attention as an adjacency matrix, our model can track entity states with a single layer. Empirical results demonstrate significant improvements in entity tracking datasets while keeping competitive performance on standard natural language modeling. Our modified attention allows us to achieve the same performance with drastically fewer layers. Additionally, our enhanced mechanism reveals structured internal representations of attention. Extensive experiments on both toy and complex datasets validate our approach. Our contributions include theoretical insights, an improved attention mechanism, and empirical validation.

The United States military has struck a number of cities in Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, and the key port city of Hodeidah. Forces from the US Central Command (CENTCOM), the military command responsible for US forces in the Middle East, "conducted strikes on 15 Houthi targets in Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen today", it said on X on Friday. Four strikes targeted Sanaa and seven hit Hodeidah, according to the Houthi-run Al Masirah TV network. Correspondents with the AFP news agency also reported hearing loud explosions in both cities. The Hodeidah strikes hit the airport and the Katheib area, which has a Houthi-controlled military base, Al Masirah said.

Gen. Jack Keane joins'Fox Report' to discuss the escalating tensions in the Middle East amid fears of a wider war. While much of the world has eyes on Israel's battles with Hezbollah and Hamas, the U.S. Navy has its sights set on another of Iran's proxies, the Yemeni Houthi rebels. With a mission to keep international waterways at peace, the Navy now finds itself fending off attacks from the shadowy gang of pirates who have gone from arming themselves with assault rifles, pickup trucks and motorboats – to a seemingly unending supply of drones, missiles and other weaponry. The Houthis often attack unarmed Western ships carrying goods through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden – while the U.S. has responded in kind with drone attacks on Yemen. ISRAELI AIR FORCE STRIKES HOUTHI TARGETS IN YEMEN WITH'EXTENSIVE' OPERATION That's led to perilous waters along a trade route that typically sees some 1 trillion in goods pass through it, as well as shipments of aid to war-torn Sudan and the Yemeni people.

Estimating the location and intensity of tropical cyclones holds crucial significance for predicting catastrophic weather events. In this study, we approach this task as a detection and regression challenge, specifically over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) region where best tracks location and wind speed information serve as the labels. The current process for cyclone detection and intensity estimation involves physics-based simulation studies which are time-consuming, only using image features will automate the process for significantly faster and more accurate predictions. While conventional methods typically necessitate substantial prior knowledge for training, we are exploring alternative approaches to enhance efficiency. This research aims to focus specifically on cyclone detection, intensity estimation and related aspects using only image input and data-driven approaches and will lead to faster inference time and automate the process as opposed to current NWP models being utilized at SAC. In context to algorithm development, a novel two stage detection and intensity estimation module is proposed. In the first level detection we try to localize the cyclone over an entire image as captured by INSAT3D over the NIO (North Indian Ocean). For the intensity estimation task, we propose a CNN-LSTM network, which works on the cyclone centered images, utilizing a ResNet-18 backbone, by which we are able to capture both temporal and spatial characteristics.