Prior work has shown that large language models (LLMs) can predict human attitudes based on other attitudes, but this work has largely focused on predictions from highly similar and interrelated attitudes. In contrast, human attitudes are often strongly associated even across disparate and dissimilar topics. Using a novel dataset of human responses toward diverse attitude statements, we found that a frontier language model (GPT-4o) was able to recreate the pairwise correlations among individual attitudes and to predict individuals' attitudes from one another. Crucially, in an advance over prior work, we tested GPT-4o's ability to predict in the absence of surface-similarity between attitudes, finding that while surface similarity improves prediction accuracy, the model was still highly-capable of generating meaningful social inferences between dissimilar attitudes. Altogether, our findings indicate that LLMs capture crucial aspects of the deeper, latent structure of human belief systems.

Its evolution is governed by intricate air-sea interactions, posing significant challenges for long-term prediction. In this study, we introduce CTEFNet, a multivariate deep learning model that synergizes convolutional neural networks and transformers to enhance ENSO forecasting. By integrating multiple oceanic and atmospheric predictors, CTEFNet extends the effective forecast lead time to 20 months while mitigating the impact of the spring predictability barrier, outperforming both dynamical models and state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. Furthermore, CTEFNet offers physically meaningful and statistically significant insights through gradient-based sensitivity analysis, revealing the key precursor signals that govern ENSO dynamics, which align with well-established theories and reveal new insights about inter-basin interactions among the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. The CTEFNet's superior predictive skill and interpretable sensitivity assessments underscore its potential for advancing climate prediction. Our findings highlight the importance of multivariate coupling in ENSO evolution and demonstrate the promise of deep learning in capturing complex climate dynamics with enhanced interpretability. 1 Introduction El Ni no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most prominent modes of inter-annual climate variability, characterized by shifts in sea surface temperatures (SST) across the tropical Pacific Ocean and the weakening of equatorial trade winds.

Coral reefs are declining worldwide due to climate change and local stressors. To inform effective conservation or restoration, monitoring at the highest possible spatial and temporal resolution is necessary. Conventional coral reef surveying methods are limited in scalability due to their reliance on expert labor time, motivating the use of computer vision tools to automate the identification and abundance estimation of live corals from images. However, the design and evaluation of such tools has been impeded by the lack of large high quality datasets. We release the Coralscapes dataset, the first general-purpose dense semantic segmentation dataset for coral reefs, covering 2075 images, 39 benthic classes, and 174k segmentation masks annotated by experts. Coralscapes has a similar scope and the same structure as the widely used Cityscapes dataset for urban scene segmentation, allowing benchmarking of semantic segmentation models in a new challenging domain which requires expert knowledge to annotate. We benchmark a wide range of semantic segmentation models, and find that transfer learning from Coralscapes to existing smaller datasets consistently leads to state-of-the-art performance. Coralscapes will catalyze research on efficient, scalable, and standardized coral reef surveying methods based on computer vision, and holds the potential to streamline the development of underwater ecological robotics.

Visual Question Answering (VQA) requires reasoning across visual and textual modalities, yet Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) often lack integrated commonsense knowledge, limiting their robustness in real-world scenarios. To address this, we introduce MAGIC-VQA, a novel framework that enhances VQA by systematically integrating commonsense knowledge with LVLMs. MAGIC-VQA employs a three-stage process: (1) Explicit Knowledge Integration from external sources, (2) By-Type Post-Processing for contextual refinement, and (3) Implicit Knowledge Augmentation using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) for structured reasoning. While GNNs bring greater depth to structured inference, they enable superior relational inference beyond LVLMs. MAGIC-VQA bridges a key gap by unifying commonsensse knowledge with LVLM-driven reasoning, eliminating the need for extensive pre-training or complex prompt tuning. Our framework achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets, significantly improving commonsense reasoning in VQA.

Robotic grasping and manipulation in underwater environments present unique challenges for robotic hands traditionally used on land. These challenges stem from dynamic water conditions, a wide range of object properties from soft to stiff, irregular object shapes, and varying surface frictions. One common approach involves developing finger-based hands with embedded compliance using underactuation and soft actuators. This study introduces an effective alternative solution that does not rely on finger-based hand designs. We present a fish mouth inspired origami gripper that utilizes a single degree of freedom to perform a variety of robust grasping tasks underwater. The innovative structure transforms a simple uniaxial pulling motion into a grasping action based on the Yoshimura crease pattern folding. The origami gripper offers distinct advantages, including scalable and optimizable design, grasping compliance, and robustness, with four grasping types: pinch, power grasp, simultaneous grasping of multiple objects, and scooping from the seabed. In this work, we detail the design, modeling, fabrication, and validation of a specialized underwater gripper capable of handling various marine creatures, including jellyfish, crabs, and abalone. By leveraging an origami and bio-inspired approach, the presented gripper demonstrates promising potential for robotic grasping and manipulation in underwater environments.

This study introduces a cutting-edge regional weather forecasting model based on the SwinTransformer 3D architecture. This model is specifically designed to deliver precise hourly weather predictions ranging from 1 hour to 5 days, significantly improving the reliability and practicality of short-term weather forecasts. Our model has demonstrated generally superior performance when compared to Pangu, a well-established global model. The evaluation indicates that our model excels in predicting most weather variables, highlighting its potential as a more effective alternative in the field of limited area modeling. A noteworthy feature of this model is the integration of enhanced boundary conditions, inspired by traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) techniques. This integration has substantially improved the model's predictive accuracy. Additionally, the model includes an innovative approach for diagnosing hourly total precipitation at a high spatial resolution of approximately 5 kilometers. This is achieved through a latent diffusion model, offering an alternative method for generating high-resolution precipitation data.

Islands are diversity hotspots and vulnerable to environmental degradation, climate variations, land use changes and societal crises. These factors can exhibit interactive impacts on ecosystem services. The study reviewed a large number of papers on the climate change-islands-ecosystem services topic worldwide. Potential inclusion of land use changes and other drivers of impacts on ecosystem services were sequentially also recorded. The study sought to investigate the impacts of climate change, land use change, and other non-climatic driver changes on island ecosystem services. Explanatory variables examined were divided into two categories: environmental variables and methodological ones. Environmental variables include sea zone geographic location, ecosystem, ecosystem services, climate, land use, other driver variables, Methodological variables include consideration of policy interventions, uncertainty assessment, cumulative effects of climate change, synergistic effects of climate change with land use change and other anthropogenic and environmental drivers, and the diversity of variables used in the analysis. Machine learning and statistical methods were used to analyze their effects on island ecosystem services. Negative climate change impacts on ecosystem services are better quantified by land use change or other non-climatic driver variables than by climate variables. The synergy of land use together with climate changes is modulating the impact outcome and critical for a better impact assessment. Analyzed together, there is little evidence of more pronounced for a specific sea zone, ecosystem, or ecosystem service. Climate change impacts may be underestimated due to the use of a single climate variable deployed in most studies. Policy interventions exhibit low classification accuracy in quantifying impacts indicating insufficient efficacy or integration in the studies.

A new method for estimating tropical cyclone track uncertainty is presented and tested. This method uses a neural network to predict a bivariate normal distribution, which serves as an estimate for track uncertainty. We train the network and make predictions on forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which currently uses static error distributions based on forecasts from the past five years for most applications. The neural network-based method produces uncertainty estimates that are dynamic and probabilistic. Further, the neural network-based method allows for probabilistic statements about tropical cyclone trajectories, including landfall probability, which we highlight. We show that our predictions are well calibrated using multiple metrics, that our method produces better uncertainty estimates than current NHC approaches, and that our method achieves similar performance to the Global Ensemble Forecast System. Once trained, the computational cost of predictions using this method is negligible, making it a strong candidate to improve the NHC's operational estimations of tropical cyclone track uncertainty.

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity due to climate change. This, in turn, is exacting a significant toll in communities worldwide. While prediction skills are increasing with advances in numerical weather prediction and artificial intelligence tools, extreme weather still present challenges. More specifically, identifying the precursors of such extreme weather events and how these precursors may evolve under climate change remain unclear. In this paper, we propose to use post-hoc interpretability methods to construct relevance weather maps that show the key extreme-weather precursors identified by deep learning models. We then compare this machine view with existing domain knowledge to understand whether deep learning models identified patterns in data that may enrich our understanding of extreme-weather precursors. We finally bin these relevant maps into different multi-year time periods to understand the role that climate change is having on these precursors. The experiments are carried out on Indochina heatwaves, but the methodology can be readily extended to other extreme weather events worldwide.

Automatic language identification is frequently framed as a multi-class classification problem. However, when creating digital corpora for less commonly written languages, it may be more appropriate to consider it a data mining problem. For these varieties, one knows ahead of time that the vast majority of documents are of little interest. By minimizing resources spent on classifying such documents, we can create corpora much faster and with better coverage than using established pipelines. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the language mining perspective, we introduce a new pipeline and corpora for several French-based Creoles.