We study the problem of sequential prediction in the stochastic setting with an1 adversary that is allowed to inject clean-label adversarial (or out-of-distribution)2 examples. Algorithms designed to handle purely stochastic data tend to fail in the3 presence of such adversarial examples, often leading to erroneous predictions. This4 is undesirable in many high-stakes applications such as medical recommendations,5 where abstaining from predictions on adversarial examples is preferable to mis-6 classification. On the other hand, assuming fully adversarial data leads to very7 pessimistic bounds that are often vacuous in practice.8 To capture this motivation, we propose a new model of sequential prediction that9 sits between the purely stochastic and fully adversarial settings by allowing the10 learner to abstain from making a prediction at no cost on adversarial examples.11

Plus: Spy firms tap into a global telecom weakness to track targets, 500,000 UK health records go up for sale on Alibaba, Apple patches a revealing notification bug, and more. As researchers and practitioners debate the impact that new AI models will have on cybersecurity, Mozilla said on Tuesday it used early access to Anthropic's Mythos Preview to find and fix 271 vulnerabilities in its new Firefox 150 browser release. Meanwhile, researchers identified a group of moderately successful North Korean hackers using AI for everything from vibe coding malware to creating fake company websites--stealing up to $12 million in three months. Researchers have finally cracked disruptive malware known as Fast16 that predates Stuxnet and may have been used to target Iran's nuclear program. It was created in 2005 and was likely deployed by the US or an ally.

At least seven people were killed in Russian strikes across Ukraine overnight, including five in the central city of Dnipro, where officials said an apartment building was hit. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the latest attack lasted practically all night, while rescue workers were still searching for survivors under rubble in Dnipro on Saturday morning. British jets were scrambled from Romania during the heavy attack when Russian drones were detected near the border, though the UK Ministry of Defence rejected a report it had shot some down. Meanwhile, Ukraine carried out some of its longest-distance drone strikes deep inside Russian territory. In Yekaterinburg, almost 1,000 miles (1,600km) from Ukraine's border, the governor said six people were injured when a building was struck - while in nearby Chelyabinsk, a local leader said drones targeting an industrial facility were shot down.

Large pretrained language models (LMs) like BERT have improved performance in many disparate natural language processing (NLP) tasks. However, fine tuning such models requires a large number of training examples for each target task. Simultaneously, many realistic NLP problems are "few shot", without a sufficiently large training set. In this work, we propose a novel conditional neural process-based approach for few-shot text classification that learns to transfer from other diverse tasks with rich annotation. Our key idea is to represent each task using gradient information from a base model and to train an adaptation network that modulates a text classifier conditioned on the task representation. While previous task-aware few-shot learners represent tasks by input encoding, our novel task representation is more powerful, as the gradient captures input-output relationships of a task. Experimental results show that our approach outperforms traditional fine-tuning, sequential transfer learning, and state-of-the-art meta learning approaches on a collection of diverse few-shot tasks. We further conducted analysis and ablations to justify our design choices.

Current approaches for (multi-horizon) time-series forecasting using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) focus on issuing point estimates, which are insufficient for informing decision-making in critical application domains wherein uncertainty estimates are also required. Existing methods for uncertainty quantification in RNNbased time-series forecasts are limited as they may require significant alterations to the underlying architecture, may be computationally complex, may be difficult to calibrate, may incur high sample complexity, and may not provide theoretical validity guarantees for the issued uncertainty intervals. In this work, we extend the inductive conformal prediction framework to the time-series forecasting setup, and propose a lightweight uncertainty estimation procedure to address the above limitations. With minimal exchangeability assumptions, our approach provides uncertainty intervals with theoretical guarantees on frequentist coverage for any multi-horizon forecast predictor and any dataset. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the conformal forecasting framework by comparing it with existing baselines on a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets.